PBAT and the "Deep State" elites

Notably, powerful individuals, including retired generals from the armed forces, former presidents, governors, senators, heads of government agencies, and affluent businesspeople, naturally want to oversee the government and expect the ruling class to give in to their innate demands by enacting laws that benefit their corporate empires. Nigeria has long been at the mercy of the whims and caprices of elites from the “deep state,” both inside and outside the country.

As it regards the oil subsidy crisis, the concept of “Deep State” herein refers to the idea that there are some powerful and entrenched factions, including political elites, military elites, and business elites, engaged in an unstated behind-the-scenes and opaque but critical role in formulating and sustaining oil subsidy policies. These elites are generally seen to have self-interest and power-preserving motivations that overshadow what is in the public’s interest.

Since the discovery of crude oil, Nigeria has been hijacked by various rent-seeking elites from the 1960s up until the present moment. Their major interest is the viability and sustaining of their business interests and the maintenance of their power over whomever emerges as president. The PBAT’s unilateral attempt to convince the oil oligarchies and deep state operatives that “oil subsidy has gone” in his inaugural speech is unpopular. PBAT never realised the impact of his public remarks, failing to realise that Nigeria’s economy depends heavily on oil production, which is the foundation upon which all other economic endeavours are built.

The oil oligarchies are furious as the negative effects of the subsidy’s elimination become more apparent and bite. On the one hand, they find the PBAT’s position on the oil subsidy uncomfortable, and on the other hand, they worry about Dangote refineries’ potential to overshadow their actual source of free money. This interpretation was supported by Alhaji Aliko Dangote’s recent outburst, which claimed that International Oil Companies (IOC) and some government institutions had plotted to undermine his efforts by shipping crude oil abroad rather than selling it to his refinery. Of all, the unleashed scenario is nothing more than the coordinated actions of deep state operatives trying to keep their plundering apparatus (looting machine) from coming apart.

However, the people who are most affected by the economic downturn are incensed about the rapidly rising costs of groceries and staple commodities like corn, rice, beans, garri, and so on. “End Bad Governance” was a protest movement started by disgruntled citizens, but the deep-state elites hijacked it to topple the government in response to the increasing levels of hunger and hardship in the country. The leaders of the opposition, Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, deliberately distance themselves from these appeals, understanding that doing so will reverse the progress made.

Incidentally, Alhaji Aliko Dangote, owner of the Dangote refinery, alleged that government officials on the board of Nigeria’s national petroleum company had shares in Maltese blending plants, which has been wrongfully attributed to PBAT by a young social media influencer video doing around on social media. The troubling question in my mind is: Is PBAT so greedy to the extent that he will deliberately sabotage his own government? Evidently, Bola Ahmed Tinubu has been strategic and very influential in Nigerian politics for many years and has been involved in this and that political strut and stab. Critics argue that persons such as Tinubu and other politicians are in fact part of a Nigerian ‘Deep State’, although this is more of a conjecture and conspiracy theory than anything else. The question is, if he is part of oil oligarchies, could he work against his own economic interests?

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The disturbing trend in all these shenanigans is that there was no marshal action plan to tackle the negative effects of subsidy removal on the citizenry at the time the president made this pronouncement. Rice sharing and other palliative measures are spur-of-the-moment decision strategies concocted to appease the hungry citizens whose purchasing power has been weakened by the stringent PBATnomics poverty-driven policies.

Throughout the eight years of the PMB administration, this monstrous entity known as the “Deep State” clandestinely obstructed the construction of modular refineries. Even though the plan was very ambitious and promising, particularly when it was introduced to the public by then Vice President Prof. Yemi Osinbajo, agents of provocateurs permanently disrupted the regime attempt by killing it in the bud.

Consequently, PBAT’s bold move to break the entrenched cycle of corruption that the oil magnates have established has become a proxy war between PBAT, Dangote, the oppressed citizens, and the deep state elites who are determined to keep control over resources and policy decisions in the oil industry. These elites are prepared to continue their rent-seeking behaviour of extracting wealth without adding to productivity, use every means at their disposal to thwart reform in the oil sector, and manipulate the narrative surrounding oil subsidies to safeguard their interests. This includes denouncing and portraying them as detrimental to common people, even though they may ultimately be economically advantageous.

It is appropriate to say that the ‘Deep State’ elites are very influential when it comes to the oil subsidy dilemma, as they perpetuate the subsidy fraud and continue to parry any attempt to dismantle them. They have thus continued to contribute to the country’s persistent fiscal and economic quandary, especially in the way it has handled its oil resources. Solving these problems is not only a question of changing some policies but also imposing measures to eliminate corrupt ones. Is PBAT brave enough to defend the people and deliver Nigeria from these exploitative investors? I don’t think so, especially since his family, business associates, and political supporters all have substantial financial interests in the oil sector.

Rotimi S. Bello, a public commentator, peace and conflict expert, and HR practitioner, writes from Canada.