While Nigerians and the world are waiting with expectation for a new economic roadmap from President Buhari, it is pertinent to remind the President of his ‘Next Level’ promise to improve the living standard of Nigerians and move the economy out of tottering recovery. The delay in constituting a cabinet in his first term was alleged to have partly contributed to the economic recession. The unlikely consequences of the 2015 general elections accounted for capital flight, as investors moved their investments from Nigeria in anticipation of likely electoral crisis.
While the delay lasted, the Emefiele-led CBN took charge but the volatility of the world price of crude oil, Nigeria’s major income earner nose-dived and the economy got thoroughly bashed. Economy predators did not also help, they collaborated to wreck the economy and Godwin Emefiele became the scapegoat. Global economic protectionism, the BREXIT, and in particular, the unending trade war between United States of America and China made the CBN come up with the suspension of 41 items to resolve the challenges facing the economy.
Godwin Emefiele gauging the temperature and architecture of the trade war between two economic giants and their allies’ and likely consequences it would have on global economic growth and stability came up with some homegrown policies to secure and protect Nigeria’s fragile economy.
Economic nationalism did not start today or with Donald Trump. Nigeria in 1972 under General Yakubu Gowon (rtd), the former Head of State promulgated the Nigerian Enterprises Promotion Decree a.k.a Indigenization Decree. The aim of the policy was to create opportunities for Nigerian indigenous businessmen; maximise local retention of profits and to raise intermediate capital and goods production. It must be noted that, the policy was predicated on a very strong conviction of political and economic nationalisation. The policy was later reviewed by the Murtala/Obasanjo regime in 1977. It was a radical policy politically initiated to set the stage for greater participation of Nigerians in the ownership, management and control of the productive enterprises in Nigeria. It was envisioned to enhance the industrial development of the country by encouraging foreign investment in intermediate and capital goods production. Unfortunately, we missed the dream and successive administrations lost the vision and Nigeria drifted away from economic realities.
The appointment of Emefiele in June 2014 revealed the true health of the economy with inflation almost hitting the roof and the price of crude oil, the only revenue-earning product for the country, plummeted uncontrollably in the international market. The local currency, the Naira, was worst hit by the enterprises of currency speculators and round-tripping held sway, and embarrassingly, the economy became dollarized. It thus became obvious that if something drastic and decisive was not done Nigeria might be put up for economic colonisation.
It took the initiative of Godwin Emefiele after devaluing the currency twice, to embrace import substitution policy targeted at the goods draining the reserves and responsible for job loss, the 43 items that can be locally produced. Nigerians knew the consequence of that action. Economic predators went up in arms, but Godwin Emefiele stood his ground. He only sought the support of well-meaning Nigerians. That was Emefiele’s protectionist agenda designed to drastically reduce imports and encourage local production and create jobs. At the heart of the policy was the desire to spur domestic economy, which had been swallowed with warped taste for foreign goods and enhance production of suspended items he has eventually increased to 43, and promised to suspend more if the need arises.
This policy also seeks to discourage dumping of sub-standard goods, which were flooding the Nigerian markets. To ensure that a vacuum was not created, the CBN came up with the Anchor Borrowers’ Programme, Investors and Exporters Window, Youth Entrepreneur Development Programme (YEPD), Real Sector Support Fund Facility (RSSP) and Accelerated Agriculture Development Scheme (AADS), not to mention the N220bn MSMEDF, ACGS, SMECGS etc.). Importantly, his own brand of economic nationalism – Produce, Add Value and Export (PAVE), however, all these efforts, to Emefiele’s detractors, are ‘unforgivable sins’.
The voodoo economists have come again as they swarm on Godwin Emefiele in the days of economic adversity. One of them wrote in a national business daily newspaper of Monday 10th June, 2019, ‘’Emefiele: A central bank governor in politician’s image”. Eventually, this is a piece put together and apparently doing the job of paymasters. The writer suggested that President Buhari reappointed Emefiele because he pursued, almost without reservation, the President’s statist and illiberal economic agenda, including propping up favoured sectors, notably agriculture and manufacturing, with billions of Naira. However, these actions protected those sectors from international competition through high tariffs, exchange control and outright import bans. He made some mundane comments that betrayed the disappointment of his payers who were apparently unhappy and disappointed with Emefiele’s reappointment. I think Emefiele himself knew that his reappointment would re-energise the economic predators, reason he said on his reappointment that ‘the road ahead would be rough’. These disillusioned adversaries always come in different shapes, colour and sizes. As they failed to effect change at the headship of the Bank and have the Naira floated, they have resulted to name calling, blackmail and mudslinging.
The ‘politician CBN Governor’ has succeeded in achieving unbroken 3-year stability in the foreign exchange markets and has encouraged foreign direct investments (FDI) into Nigeria.
Cynics have started; they are irritating distractions whose trademark is ‘pulling him down at all cost’ syndrome. They always get paid to do these dirty jobs for a mesh of porridge, but unfortunately, they have gotten themselves a match in Godwin Emefiele.
Innocent Onyeabuchi
Innocent writes from Abraka, Delta State.
