In an era of rising global instability and growing economic disparity, President Donald Trump’s position on immigration and his America First agenda offer an interesting lens through which to address some of the world’s most pressing issues. While his policies, particularly on immigration, have often sparked debate and controversy, they also present a framework that could play a critical role in encouraging economic development, reducing crime, and curbing corruption, especially in the world’s poorest nations.
Through a combination of immigration restrictions and a focus on prioritising American interests, Trump’s policies could act as a catalyst for countries to invest more in their own economic growth and development. These measures, while often viewed as insular, may indirectly foster global economic stability and cooperation, reduce criminal activities, and promote the rule of law. Below, we explore how Trump’s approach can contribute to economic progress and social stability both in the U.S. and around the world.
1. Encouraging economic development in poorer nations
Trump’s America First policy, which emphasises limiting unchecked immigration and protecting American industries, might seem inward-looking at first glance. However, these policies can lead to positive, global economic ripple effects, especially in poorer countries that are often forced to contend with the consequences of large-scale migration and weak economies.
Incentives for domestic investment and growth:
When migration to wealthier countries becomes more difficult or restricted, people in developing nations may be motivated to stay and contribute to the economic development of their home countries. If migration is less of an option, individuals will likely focus on opportunities within their own borders, including investing in local businesses, industries, and education.
This incentivises a shift in mindset where people become more invested in domestic economic opportunities, ultimately contributing to local development. As countries restrict migration, they are often forced to improve their domestic policies, build infrastructure, and create more sustainable economies. These strategies help reduce dependency on remittances from migrants abroad and encourage people to build economic opportunities locally, from job creation to innovation in local industries.
Reduced competition for investment:
The reduction of competition for investment in wealthier nations is a significant consequence of tighter immigration controls. History offers examples where countries have benefited economically by improving their internal conditions when migration opportunities to wealthier countries became more difficult.
For instance, when the United States tightened immigration laws in the mid-20th century, particularly after the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965, countries in Latin America and Asia began to prioritise local development and look inward for economic solutions. The economic boom in South Korea, which invested heavily in infrastructure and technology during the 1970s and 1980s, was partly fuelled by the reduction of reliance on migration as a means of economic advancement. Similarly, the rapid industrialisation of China post-1979 was, in part, a result of focusing on internal development rather than emigration.
As countries like the U.S. and Canada increasingly restrict immigration, investors may look to developing countries for more stable, less competitive environments. Africa, in particular, could see new opportunities as foreign capital flows toward regions less impacted by migration and the associated pressures.
Regional cooperation and trade:
Trump’s America First agenda also stresses the importance of bilateral and multilateral agreements that benefit all parties involved. In practice, as the U.S. focuses more on domestic industry and less on relying on foreign labour, it may shift its focus towards helping other nations build their own capabilities through trade and investment. This could foster deeper economic relationships between the U.S. and developing nations, where mutual interests in regional stability and economic growth take precedence over dependency on migration.
A good example of this is the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a U.S.-Africa trade agreement that has been a cornerstone of U.S.-Africa relations for nearly two decades. This agreement allows eligible sub-Saharan African countries to export goods to the U.S. without tariffs. AGOA represents a model of regional cooperation that could be expanded if developing nations recognise the benefits of focusing on regional trade agreements instead of relying on migration as a primary escape route.
2. Reducing crime and corruption
Another major benefit of Trump’s hardline immigration policies could be the reduction of organised crime, drug trafficking, and human trafficking. Many criminal organisations operate by exploiting open borders and illegal migration routes. By strengthening border security and enforcing stricter immigration laws, these illicit activities may be curbed.
Combating transnational criminal networks:
Immigration restrictions naturally lead to stronger border controls. These controls disrupt the operations of criminal groups that rely on open borders to smuggle illegal goods, drugs, and people across countries. According to a 2019 report by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), transnational organised crime generates an estimated $870 billion to $1.5 trillion annually, with a significant portion of that coming from the illegal drug trade and human trafficking. As the U.S. and other nations tighten immigration laws, criminal networks will face increasing challenges in moving illicit goods and people across borders.
For example, Mexico’s role as a hub for drug trafficking and human smuggling is directly related to weak immigration controls. By enforcing stricter immigration policies and building stronger border security, the U.S. can disrupt these networks, making it harder for traffickers to operate.
Dismantling human trafficking networks:
Human trafficking remains one of the most egregious forms of transnational crime. According to the International Labour Organisation (ILO), there are an estimated 40.3 million victims of human trafficking globally, with nearly 25 million of those being exploited for forced labour. The U.S. State Department’s Trafficking in Persons Report highlights how traffickers often prey on vulnerable people who are seeking to cross borders illegally. By restricting illegal migration and improving border enforcement, fewer people will be exposed to the risks of trafficking.
For instance, in 2018, U.S. authorities made over 2,200 human trafficking arrests, signalling a crackdown on this devastating issue. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security has increasingly focused on stopping trafficking at its borders, in large part by tightening immigration policies. As tighter controls limit the ability of traffickers to exploit migrants, it becomes increasingly difficult for criminal networks to operate freely.
3. Impact on global stability and development
By promoting legal immigration pathways, stronger border security, and encouraging self-reliance within poorer nations, Trump’s policies contribute to greater global stability. These measures help shift the focus from migration as an escape route to self-sustaining development strategies within nations.
Fostering global economic stability:
As poor nations reduce their reliance on migration and focus on domestic development, the potential for greater regional and global economic stability increases. According to the World Bank, sub-Saharan Africa has the fastest-growing population, yet its economies remain the least developed. By encouraging internal growth, nations can better stabilise their economies and reduce their dependence on foreign assistance. The push for local development, paired with a reduction in migration pressure, could transform these nations into more sustainable and attractive investment destinations.
For instance, countries like Ethiopia have already made significant strides in creating a more attractive environment for international investors through infrastructure projects and investment in renewable energy. As migration becomes less of an option, countries like Ethiopia could attract even more investment in sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, and technology.
Promoting law and order:
Trump’s policies also promote law and order on a global scale by advocating for sovereign control over borders and immigration. By enforcing the idea that migration should happen legally and within a structured framework, countries are incentivised to address the root causes of irregular migration—poverty, violence, and lack of opportunity—through domestic reforms and international cooperation.
Such policies could contribute to the stabilisation of regions that are prone to political or economic unrest by focusing on sustainable solutions and reducing the factors that drive illegal migration, criminal activity, and corruption.
Potential challenges and critiques
While Trump’s position on immigration and his America First agenda may bring long-term benefits to economic development and global stability, there are several critiques to consider.
1. Ethical concerns about immigration restrictions:
Tighter immigration controls can raise ethical questions, particularly when they prevent refugees and asylum seekers from escaping violence, war, or persecution. While the policies aim to prioritise national interests, the human cost of denying vulnerable individuals a safe haven can be significant, leading to moral concerns about humanitarian responsibilities.
2. Exacerbating inequality or humanitarian crises:
Restricting migration may exacerbate inequality in developing countries, especially if labour markets rely heavily on remittances from migrants working abroad. Reducing the flow of migrants could strain the economies of countries that depend on these financial contributions, leading to a potential increase in poverty or social unrest in some regions.
3. Short-term disruptions in labour markets:
In wealthier nations, particularly in industries that rely on immigrant labour, short-term disruptions in labour markets could occur. Sectors such as agriculture, construction, and hospitality, which depend on migrant workers, might face challenges in maintaining their workforce, potentially leading to labour shortages or increased costs.
Conclusion: A shift towards a more stable and prosperous world
President Trump’s position on immigration and his America First agenda may seem isolationist to some, but a deeper examination reveals that these policies could promote economic development, reduce crime, and curb corruption globally. By focusing on domestic development, creating stronger legal frameworks, and limiting opportunities for illegal migration, Trump’s approach could lead to more self-sufficient and prosperous nations worldwide. Furthermore, such policies have the potential to dismantle criminal networks, reduce human trafficking, and promote the rule of law, all of which contribute to a more stable and peaceful global environment.
In the end, the world could see significant benefits from these policies as they push nations to develop their own resources, invest in their own economies, and strengthen their own governance. With fewer people leaving their home countries, there is an increased opportunity for investors to focus on developing these regions. This, combined with the barriers to illicit activities, will not only contribute to global prosperity but may also create a framework for global governance that encourages stability, law, and economic development.
Dr Brian O. Reuben is the Executive Chairman of The Sixteenth Council.
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