Enhancing the reliability of population data in census for Nigeria through Artificial Intelligence technology

Population data is a crucial aspect of any country’s development planning and policy formulation. In the case of Nigeria, a country with a significant and rapidly growing population, obtaining accurate and reliable population data is essential for effective governance, resource allocation, and social development. However, the traditional methods of conducting population censuses in Nigeria have faced challenges in terms of accuracy, reliability, and completeness. No one can say for certain, the true population of Nigeria, as several figures are being bandied by different sources.

The essence of this article, therefore, is to explore how technology and the use of artificial intelligence, robotics, and other monitoring devices can assist in arriving at more reliable population data sets in Nigeria. These modern technological breakthroughs, could be used in combination with the country’s National Identification Number (NIN) and the Biometric Verification Number (BVN), at arriving at accurate or near accurate census figures as much as possible.

Historical overview of population censuses in Nigeria.

Nigeria has conducted five population censuses at various intervals since its independence. The censuses were held in 1952, 1963, 1973, 1991, 2006. The country was due for another national census in 2016, 10 years after the last one was conducted in 2006. However, the national census did not hold as scheduled in 2016 and has not been held, now 18 years since 2006.

While these censuses have provided valuable, but controversial insights into the country’s population dynamics, there have been concerns regarding the accuracy and reliability of the data. Issues such as undercounting, in some regions whereas overcounting in other regions, data manipulation, and political interference have cast doubts on the credibility of the census results. The large and diverse population of Nigeria, coupled with logistical challenges in conducting a credible and reliable nationwide census, have further compounded the problem of obtaining accurate population data.

Challenges in traditional census methods

The traditional methods of conducting population censuses in Nigeria have several inherent challenges that affect the reliability of the data. Some of the key historical challenges include:

Undercounting: The traditional census methods rely on enumerators physically counting households and individuals, which can lead to undercounting, especially in remote or hard-to-reach areas. This can result in an inaccurate representation of the population.

Overcounting: In some regions of the country, especially in the predominantly Muslim parts, where, due to religious considerations, non-family males are barred from entry into a family household so as not to have any remote or direct contact with wives, the enumerators can only rely on the figures provided by the heads of such families, which could be exaggerated or inaccurate, as has been alleged.

Data manipulation: There have been instances of data manipulation in past censuses where census officials have tampered with the data to suit political agendas or interests. This compromises the integrity and accuracy of the census results.

Logistical challenges: Conducting a nationwide census in a country as vast and diverse as Nigeria poses significant logistical challenges. These challenges include inadequate infrastructure, poor transportation networks, and security concerns, which can impact the completeness and accuracy of the data.

Time and cost: Traditional census methods are time-consuming and expensive, requiring significant resources to conduct. The long intervals between censuses also mean that population data may become outdated quickly.

Artificial intelligence in population data collection and census:

Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to revolutionise the way population data is collected, analysed, and interpreted. AI technologies, such as machine learning algorithms, natural language processing, and computer vision, can be employed to enhance the accuracy and reliability of population data in Nigeria. Some ways in which AI can be utilised include:

Data analysis: AI algorithms can analyse large volumes of data quickly and efficiently, identifying patterns, trends, and anomalies in the population data. This can help in detecting errors or inconsistencies in the data, improving the overall accuracy of the census results.

Predictive modelling: AI can be used to develop predictive models that forecast population growth, migration patterns, and demographic changes. These models can provide valuable insights for policymakers and planners in making informed decisions.

Remote sensing: AI-powered remote sensing technologies, such as satellite imagery and drones, can be used to gather population data in remote or inaccessible areas. This can help in overcoming the challenges of undercounting and incomplete data.

Real-time monitoring: AI can enable real-time monitoring of population dynamics, such as birth rates, death rates, and migration patterns. This can provide up-to-date information on the population, allowing for timely interventions and policy adjustments.

Robotics in population data collection

Robotics is another emerging technology that holds great promise for enhancing the reliability of population data in Nigeria. Autonomous robots equipped with sensors and cameras can be deployed to collect data in a more efficient and accurate manner. Some ways in which robotics can be utilised include:

Census enumeration: Robots can be programmed to conduct census enumeration, visiting households and collecting data on population demographics. This can reduce the risk of human errors and improve the completeness of the census data.

Data verification: Robots can be used to verify the accuracy of census data by cross-referencing information collected from different sources. This can help in identifying discrepancies or inconsistencies in the data.

Field surveys: Robots can be deployed for field surveys in remote or hazardous environments, where human enumerators may face challenges. This can ensure that population data is collected from all areas, including those that are hard to reach.

Data security: Robotics can enhance the security and confidentiality of population data by encrypting and securely storing the information collected. This can help in protecting sensitive data from unauthorised access or tampering.

Monitoring devices in population data collection

In addition to AI and robotics, monitoring devices such as biometric scanners, GPS trackers, and smart sensors can also play a vital role in improving the reliability of population data in Nigeria. These devices can provide real-time data on population movements, health indicators, and social trends. Some ways in which monitoring devices can be used include:

Biometric identification: Biometric scanners can be used to verify the identity of individuals during census enumeration, reducing the risk of duplicate entries or false information. This can help improve the accuracy of the census data.

Overcounting: In some regions of the country, where religious considerations frown at strangers, non-family males, who are sometimes barred from entry into a family household so as not to have any remote or direct contact with wives, the enumerators can only rely on the figures provided by the heads of such families, which could be exaggerated or inaccurate, as has been alleged.

Smart sensors: Smart sensors can be deployed in public spaces, such as hospitals, schools, and transportation hubs, to monitor population flows and activities. This can provide valuable insights into population dynamics and trends.

Mobile data collection: Mobile devices equipped with monitoring apps can be used to collect population data in real-time, enabling rapid data entry and analysis. This can help in obtaining up-to-date information on the population, facilitating timely decision-making.

In conclusion, Nigerians and indeed our international development partners expect the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu administration, after 18 years without a technically enumerated census figure for the country, to put in motion, as a priority, the use of modern technology such as artificial intelligence, robotics, and monitoring devices, which hold great potential for enhancing the reliability of population data and census results for Nigeria.

By leveraging these technologies, the country can overcome the challenges of traditional census methods and obtain more accurate, complete, and up-to-date population data. AI algorithms can analyse large volumes of data, detect errors and fraud, and predict population trends, while robotics and drones can conduct census enumeration, verify data accuracy, and reach remote areas. Monitoring devices, such as biometric scanners and GPS trackers, can provide real-time data on population movements and activities. By embracing these technologies, Nigeria can improve its population data collection methods and make informed policy decisions for the benefit of its citizens.

Sonny Iroche is a 2022/2023 Senior Academic Fellow at the African Studies Centre, University of Oxford. UK and currently in Post Graduate Studies at the Saïd Business School, University of Oxford.