The citizens of Sierra Leone, Zimbabwe, Gabon, Madagascar and the Democratic Republic of Congo will be heading to the polls at some point during 2023.
These results, though domestically important, are unlikely to have dramatic global ramifications.
The same cannot be said about Nigeria.
Africa’s largest economy will elect a new leader on Saturday February 25th 2023, waving goodbye to 8 years of rule from the All Progressive Congress’s (APC) Muhammadu Buhari.
The retired Army major general served as the country’s military head of state in the early 1980’s.
Following several attempts at regaining leadership, his historic re-election in 2015 on a plausible mandate of thwarting corruption, garnered huge geo-political momentum.
Buhari’s audacious ambitions rarely courted the headlines he proactively shun, but some of his achievements are noteworthy.
This includes overseeing the largest federal infrastructure programme since Nigeria’s Independence and signing off on a landmark electoral bill to usher in the most ambitious legislative programme in its history.
These milestones have been overshadowed by the Covid-19 pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, domestic stagnant growth, crippling youth unemployment and rampant widespread insurgency.
According to a World bank report, sluggish growth, low human capital, labour market weaknesses, and exposure to shocks are holding Nigeria’s poverty reduction back.
The stark contrast between the perceived woes of the masses within the country and the superstar status of successful Nigerians living abroad is striking.
British Nigerian Kemi Badenoch and Nigerian American Wally Adeyemo both head powerful economy and trade portfolios for their respective governments, and tens of thousands of Nigerians remain world leaders across many sectors including tech, entertainment, health and industry.
Our sense of pride, determination and sheer tenacity is enough to resuscitate the foundations of our democracy.
It is time to build, and the renovation continues no matter the outcome of the most contentious election in a generation.
The Old Guard Battle To Lead A ‘New’ Nigeria
If ever you needed a reminder of just how far removed the woke, educated western diaspora are from the complex nature of Nigerian politics – try debating with a passionate grassroots pundit about the potential outcome of the upcoming ballot.
Despite an enormous backlash from the populous youth, the frontrunner is the ruling party’s controversial nominee Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
The 70-year-old former Governor of Lagos State will go head to head with his main opponent Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP).
76-year-old Atiku served as vice president from 1999 to 2007 under former President Olusegun Obasanjo. The wealthy statesman has contested the presidency of Nigeria fives times in the past and has plenty of heavyweight support.
Both contenders have pledged to reform Nigeria’s broken institutions but critics are disappointed that Africa’s largest economy has failed in its attempts to unseat the stalwarts that have witnessed a stagnating economy, extreme inequalities and rising violence.
On paper both presidential hopefuls are highly qualified
Tinubu comfortably defeated 13 other candidates in the APC primaries by winning 1,271 delagates’ votes, with his nearest rival only managing 316.
Since completing his eight years tenure as governor of Lagos, the stalwart has remained highly influential, with many of his loyal proteges in extremely powerful positions in government and business.
“Tinubu has been a senator, governor and staunch player of progressive politics whose deliberate intervention altered the political trajectory of the PDP in 2015.” Writes political commentator Kassim Afegbua.
“He is articulate, strategic in his elocution, profound in his understanding of the issues, and deep in his knowledge of the issues confronting us as a people.”
One major issue confronting Nigerians head-on is corruption, which despite being a top campaign issue under President Muhammadu Buhari, there have been few visible improvements or high-profile convictions.
Last year, Nigeria ranked 154th out of 180 countries listed in Transparency International’s Corruption Index.
One spokesperson from the Atiku Abubakar Presidential Campaign, Charles Aniagwu, disclosed that the PDP has already begun to work on an anti-corruption bill, in anticipation of his victory.
Aniagwu, who said the bill was one of the strategic executive bills being prepared by Atiku ahead of 2023, added that such a move was sufficient proof that the PDP candidate planned to hit the ground running on May 29, 2023.
Given the fact that both of the main candidates are facing significant allegations of corruption and criminal ties (which both camps refute) their intention of tackling these issues head-on is unconvincing.
Read also: 2023 Politics: My nonpartisan position
The Outlier
International observers are keeping a close eye on the crowd-pleasing populous candidate Peter Gregory Obi.
The vocal support for the former governor of Anambra State traces its roots to the #ENDSARS protests of October 2020 when young Nigerians flocked to the streets to denounce a police unit notorious for extortion, brutality and extrajudicial killings.
The ‘Obidient’ movement, tired of a profligate elite, threatens to shake up the Nigerian presidential race.
Only time will tell if the comparatively youthful 61-year-old businessman can convince voters to take their support away from social media onto the established path that leads to Aso Villa.
The leading candidates have the advantage of a nationwide party machinery backed by governors and members of parliament that Obi’s party, with only one senator and no governor, lacks.
“In life we can have results or reasons. If you are not getting the results you want, your reasons are the lies that you keep telling yourself.” – Harald Anderson
Our political appetite is as diverse as our ethnic makeup. While activism is an appropriate method of engagement fortitude and conviction will produce greater dividends for us all.
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