Are African leaders ready for the second coming of Trump?

With Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House, African leaders face the prospect of navigating a complex and familiar landscape. Trump’s first term was marked by a transactional approach to Africa, with a strong focus on countering China’s influence rather than fostering direct growth. In a second Trump administration, African nations may need to redefine their strategies, preparing for possible reductions in traditional aid and a shift toward market-oriented policies. The US, under Trump, will have a clear vision of how Africa could serve its purpose. Does Africa, as a continent, or individual countries have a clear vision of how the US under Trump could serve its purpose?

During Trump’s first administration, Trump’s Africa strategy was largely motivated by countering China’s growing presence on the continent. His administration frequently criticised China’s lending practices, characterising them as “predatory,” while urging African nations to seek investment from the US as a more sustainable alternative. Trump’s emphasis on competing with China rather than directly supporting African growth led to a mixed legacy that suggests future policies could continue to prioritise strategic interests over direct support for African development. In short, Africa was a means to an end.

Several initiatives under the Trump administration aimed to boost economic growth in Africa, though they were often framed in the context of competition with China. Prosper Africa launched in 2018, brought together 17 US government agencies to support US-African business connections. While Prosper Africa fostered trade and investments between US and African firms, the initiative also aimed to serve as an alternative to China’s economic involvement. The emphasis on private sector partnerships, business climates, and expanded middle-class opportunities represented a positive, market-driven approach to economic development. However, it remains to be seen if Prosper Africa would receive continued support or evolve into a more robust partnership framework in a future Trump administration.

Through the bipartisan BUILD Act, Trump’s administration launched the US Development Finance Corporation (DFC), which now holds Africa as its largest regional portfolio, with over $11 billion invested in projects. The DFC could continue to provide critical financing for African projects if Trump returns to office, particularly in sectors like infrastructure, renewable energy, and healthcare. Nevertheless, the DFC’s priority under Trump would likely remain closely tied to the goal of countering China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

The Trump administration encouraged USAID to collaborate with the private sector, focusing on sustainable agriculture, trade, energy, and investment. This approach marked a shift from traditional aid toward economic self-sufficiency. If revived, this strategy could lead to continued support for initiatives like the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and trade hubs, although the broader emphasis might remain on leveraging private sector growth as an alternative to state-led aid.

Trump’s administration engaged directly with African leaders on strategic issues, such as his 2020 meeting with Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta, which led to expanded counterterrorism efforts. Security partnerships could continue under a Trump administration, particularly where US interests, such as countering terrorism and ensuring regional stability, are clearly aligned.

Despite these achievements, Trump’s previous administration faced criticism for its lack of engagement and for policies that negatively impacted the continent. Trump’s infamous “shithole countries” remark in 2018 and misstatements about Africa at the UN General Assembly damaged diplomatic relationships and earned backlash from African leaders. If Trump re-engages the continent, the African public and leaders may approach him with scepticism, potentially hindering effective diplomatic relations.

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Trump’s push for substantial reductions in foreign aid could resurface. His 2018 budget proposal aimed to slash USAID and State Department budgets by a third, which would have disproportionately affected African nations. Congress intervened to prevent these cuts, but if Trump again pursues foreign assistance reductions, African countries could experience reduced support for healthcare, education, and economic programs. If this catalyses African governments to get creative about driving domestic resources to those sectors, that will be a win for Africa.

Trump’s decision to withdraw from the WHO and opt out of the COVAX vaccine initiative during the Pandemic left Africa, among other regions, struggling to secure COVID-19 vaccines. Although the US eventually rejoined under President Biden, African leaders might be wary of future US disengagement from critical global health initiatives.

In conclusion, the US as the largest economy in the world is also the largest provider of financing, in particular ODA. While a Trump presidency could mean renewed economic initiatives, his focus on geopolitical strategy over direct development assistance may challenge African nations’ ability to address pressing health, infrastructure, and education needs.

African leaders will need to create a plan on how to work with the US under Trump to serve Africa’s needs while carefully negotiating US partnerships, balancing economic collaboration with a diversified approach to international relationships. African countries could also forge stronger relationships with Europe. However, for Africa to benefit from their geopolitical relationships, it must be clear eyed about what it seeks to achieve to increase economic opportunities as well as peace and security for the average citizen of the African continent.

Serah Makka is the Africa executive director for the ONE Campaign; she leads Africa’s advocacy and Africa’s agency in the fight for more and better quality development finance for Africa.