What Tinubu’s 10.9 million APC primary votes mean for 2027

When President Bola Tinubu secured 8.79 million votes to win the 2023 presidential election, the figure reflected the outcome of a fiercely competitive national contest involving multiple opposition heavyweights, regional rivalries and voter apathy.

Three years later, Tinubu has now polled nearly 11 million votes, not in a general election, but in the presidential primary of his own party.

The development has triggered intense debate across Nigeria’s political landscape, with supporters projecting it as evidence of the growing strength of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), while critics dismiss it as exaggerated political theatre designed to project inevitability ahead of the 2027 election.

Tinubu defeated a relatively unknown challenger, Stanley Osifo, in the APC direct primary during the weekend, polling 10.99 million votes against Osifo’s 16,503.

The sheer scale of the numbers immediately sparked questions: How did a candidate who won 8.79 million votes nationwide in 2023 suddenly attract nearly 11 million votes from party members alone in 2026?

APC’s expanding territorial advantage

Politically, the APC enters 2027 from a far stronger institutional position than it occupied during the last election cycle.

In 2023, the ruling party controlled fewer states in critical opposition regions such as the South South and South East. Today, the APC controls all six states in the South South and three of the five South East states.

The party also dominates the North politically, controlling all northern states except Bauchi, while maintaining 31 governors nationwide.

That geographic spread matters in Nigeria’s electoral system, where presidential victories depend not only on raw vote totals but also on broad national penetration.

Supporters of the president argue that the primary numbers merely reflect this growing political consolidation.

Nentawe Yilwatda, APC national chairman, defended the figures by pointing to the ruling party’s claimed membership strength.

“APC submitted 12.9 million registered members, PDP submitted 2.4 million, ADC submitted 1.6 million, Labour Party submitted 1.3 million voters while NDC submitted 700,000. If you put all these numbers combined it is not up to APC’s numbers. Tinubu’s result from the primaries is factual based on data,” Yilwatda said during an appearance on Arise News on Monday.

Although the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has yet to independently verify the figures, the APC’s argument is straightforward: a party with dominant control of state structures, governors, lawmakers and local political networks should naturally produce overwhelming primary numbers.

The mathematics of incumbency

Beyond party structures, incumbency itself remains one of Tinubu’s strongest assets heading into 2027.

Historically, incumbents in Nigeria benefit from expanded elite alignments as political actors gravitate toward the centre of power. Since assuming office, Tinubu has overseen a wave of defections into the APC from opposition parties at the federal and state levels.

That movement has strengthened the perception that the APC is gradually becoming Nigeria’s dominant political platform.

The party’s defenders also argue that demographic changes support the numbers. Millions of young Nigerians have entered voting age since 2023, and some may have joined the APC as part of its growing membership base.

If even a significant portion of the claimed 12.9 million members are active voters, the APC would enter the general election with a formidable mobilisation structure.

Why critics are skeptical

Yet the scale of Tinubu’s victory has also intensified skepticism. Critics argue that the primary process lacked the transparency, coordination and technological safeguards necessary to validate such figures conclusively.

Reports from several wards suggested that direct voting did not occur uniformly across the country. Videos circulated on social media showing poorly organised exercises in some locations, although the APC distanced itself from the clips.

The absence of real-time accreditation systems, electronic verification or publicly auditable membership records has fueled suspicion that many of the figures may have been administratively inflated.

Sumner Sambo, ARISE Politics Editor and Director of News, questioned the credibility of the APC’s statistics.

“In 2022, the APC told Nigerians it had 41 million members, yet President Tinubu emerged with fewer than 9 million votes in 2023. The APC is not a party to be trusted with figures from its own processes. The party currently claims 12 million registered voters, and yet it’s being said that Tinubu received 11 million votes. The governors are trying to outdo each other to please him,” Sambo said.

That criticism highlights a recurring issue in Nigerian party politics: membership figures are often politically useful but difficult to independently verify.

What the numbers may actually reveal

Even if the exact figure remains contested, the APC primary still sends an important political signal.

The exercise demonstrates the ruling party’s organisational reach and ability to project overwhelming internal consensus around Tinubu’s candidacy.

Unlike opposition parties still struggling with defections, litigations and leadership crises, the APC currently appears unified around its incumbent president.

That contrast may matter more politically than the precise vote tally itself.

The opposition landscape remains fragmented following the collapse of the ADC coalition involving Peter Obi, Rabiu Kwankwaso and Atiku Abubakar. Instead of confronting a united opposition bloc, Tinubu may now face multiple competing challengers splitting anti-incumbent votes.

In that context, the APC’s primary numbers function not only as electoral statistics but also as psychological warfare, projecting strength, inevitability and institutional dominance ahead of 2027.

The unanswered question: how many of the 11 million can actually vote?

The real test, however, will come during the general election.
Party membership does not automatically translate into registered voters. There is currently no publicly verified data showing that all APC members possess valid Permanent Voter Cards (PVC) or will participate in the election.

Nigeria’s persistent voter apathy also complicates the equation. In 2023, despite over 93 million registered voters nationwide, fewer than 25 million valid votes were cast in the presidential election. That means turnout, not just party membership, may ultimately determine the outcome in 2027.

Still, analysts believe the APC primary offers an early glimpse into the political battlefield ahead.

If Tinubu genuinely commands mobilisation structures capable of producing close to 11 million participants internally, then the opposition faces a far steeper challenge than many anticipated.

But if the figures were largely symbolic, inflated by local political actors eager to impress the presidency, then the primary may reveal less about electoral strength and more about the culture of political exaggeration that often shapes internal party contests in Nigeria.

Either way, the message from the APC is unmistakable: Tinubu intends to enter 2027 not as a vulnerable incumbent, but as the candidate of a party determined to project overwhelming national dominance.