Top 10 African countries with high instability risk

Recent evaluations of political stability in Africa have identified several countries as particularly vulnerable to instability, driven by a complex interplay of factors including governance challenges, economic distress, and social tensions.

According to a report by SBM Intelligence highlights evolving stability dynamics across Africa. The African Country Instability Risk Index (Aciri) assessed 48 nations, evaluating factors such as ethnic tensions, economic diversity, food security, poverty, and debt sustainability. The findings rank countries on a six-level scale, with higher scores indicating greater instability risks.

Sudan ranked highest with a score of 79, reflecting ongoing unrest, while Burkina Faso and the Central African Republic also scored poorly due to conflicts and governance challenges. Historical conflicts, unresolved ethnic tensions, poverty, unsustainable debt, and weak governance were identified as major instability drivers.

The report showed mixed trends, with 31 countries improving their scores and 17 recording declines. Angola and Madagascar were among those making progress, driven by cost-effective governance and steady GDP growth, respectively. Conversely, nations like Botswana and Zimbabwe experienced setbacks, attributed to economic contractions and currency crises.

Nigeria, saw a six-point drop in its stability score due to foreign business exits, rising inflation, and a weakening currency, exacerbating economic strain.

The Aciri report provides actionable insights for policymakers and investors, emphasising the importance of addressing systemic challenges, strengthening governance, and promoting inclusive growth to ensure long-term stability. It underscores the need for coordinated efforts to navigate Africa’s shifting stability landscape effectively.

Here are the top 10 African countries with high instability risk

1. Sudan – Index score: 79

Sudan ranks highest on the instability risk index, with ongoing conflicts and governance issues contributing to its position. The country has faced challenges in its political transitions and social cohesion, impacting national stability.

2. Burkina Faso – Index score: 71

Burkina Faso experiences significant instability risks due to insurgencies and a volatile political environment. These challenges affect its development and security infrastructure.

3. Central African Republic (CAR) – Index score: 71

The Central African Republic also has an index score of 71. The country grapples with prolonged internal conflicts and governance difficulties, which hinder its stability and development progress.

4. Chad – Index score: 64

Chad’s position on the index reflects its exposure to regional conflicts and internal governance pressures. These factors have influenced its national security and economic conditions.

5. Niger – Index score: 62

Niger is affected by cross-border security threats and internal governance issues. These elements place the country among the most at-risk nations in Africa.

6. South Sudan – Index Score: 62

South Sudan, with a similar score to Niger, faces instability risks stemming from internal conflicts and governance challenges since its independence in 2011.

7. Democratic Republic of Congo (DR Congo) – Index Score: 61

The Democratic Republic of Congo ranks high due to long-standing internal conflicts and weak institutional frameworks, which contribute to its instability risk.

8. Eritrea – Index Score: 61

Eritrea’s inclusion in this list highlights its governance and security challenges, which influence its position on the index.

9. Mali – Index Score: 61

Mali’s instability risks are linked to insurgencies and governance concerns. The country continues to face challenges that impact its security and socio-political environment.

10. Rwanda – Index Score: 59

Rwanda ranks tenth on the index, with concerns about political and governance issues contributing to its position.

Chisom Michael

Chisom Michael is a data analyst (audience engagement) and writer at BusinessDay, with diverse experience in the media industry. He holds a BSc in Industrial Physics from Imo State University and an MEng in Computer Science and Technology from Liaoning Univerisity of Technology China. He specialises in listicle writing, profiles and leveraging his skills in audience engagement analysis and data-driven insights to create compelling content that resonates with readers.

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