Political decisions often have far-reaching implications, and the Trump Risk Index (TRI) offers a crucial perspective on the economic exposure of countries to the potential policies and rhetoric of a second Trump presidency.
The TRI evaluates the vulnerability of various nations based on factors such as trade dependencies, geopolitical alignments, and economic stability. This index serves as a valuable tool for understanding the geopolitical and economic risks countries might face under a renewed Trump administration.
It measures the exposure of the US’s 70 largest trading partners to significant policy changes across three key areas: trade, immigration, and security.
The report states that Saudi Arabia (70th) is the least exposed country on the Trump Risk Index, with a TRI score of 9.4. Its trade links with the U.S. have diminished as the U.S. has become an energy exporter, though Saudi Arabia’s heavy spending on defence, including U.S. arms, remains significant.
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Australia ranks as the second least exposed country, combining distant trade relations with the U.S. and a balanced security relationship.
“Links between the US and Saudi Arabia were warmer under the first Trump administration than they have been under Mr Biden. With its ties with the US disentangled in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine, Russia (63rd) is also prominent among countries with a low exposure” the report highlighted.
According to EIU, here are the ten least exposed countries in the Trump Risk Index (TRI)
1. Saudi Arabia: Overall Exposure Score – 9.4
Saudi Arabia stands as the least exposed country on the Trump Risk Index with an overall exposure score of 9.4. This low score can be attributed to the strong bilateral ties between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, especially in the domains of oil trade and defence. Despite the occasional political tensions, the economic interdependence and strategic alliances have shielded Saudi Arabia from significant adverse impacts of Trump’s policies.
2. Australia: Overall Exposure Score – 9.7
Australia’s low exposure score of 9.7 reflects its balanced approach to international trade and diplomacy. Australia’s diversified trade portfolio, with significant partners beyond the United States, and its strategic positioning in the Asia-Pacific region have helped mitigate potential risks from U.S. policy shifts. Additionally, Australia’s strong economic fundamentals and stable political environment contribute to its resilience.
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3. Poland: Overall Exposure Score – 10.0
Poland’s overall exposure score of 10.0 indicates its relatively low vulnerability to Trump’s policies. Poland’s strong alignment with the European Union and its efforts to diversify its energy sources has reduced its dependence on any single country. Moreover, Poland’s robust economic growth and strategic partnerships within NATO have provided a buffer against potential geopolitical and economic shocks.
4. Morocco: Overall Exposure Score – 10.8
Morocco’s position with a score of 10.8 showcases its strategic diplomatic efforts and diversified economy. Morocco has cultivated strong relationships with various global powers and has been proactive in regional economic integration, particularly within Africa. These efforts have lessened its susceptibility to external political influences, including those from the Trump administration.
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5. Greece: Overall Exposure Score – 13.1
Greece shares the fifth position with Oman, each scoring 13.1. Greece’s economic recovery efforts post-financial crisis and its integration within the European Union have contributed to its lower exposure. The nation has focused on stabilizing its economy, attracting foreign investment, and enhancing its tourism sector, thereby creating a more resilient economic environment.
6. Oman: Overall Exposure Score – 13.1
Oman’s strategic geographic location and its neutral foreign policy stance have played key roles in its low exposure score of 13.1. Oman has maintained a balanced approach to international relations, fostering good ties with both regional and global powers. Its efforts to diversify its economy away from oil dependence also contribute to its reduced vulnerability.
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7. Finland: Overall Exposure Score – 17.7
Finland’s score of 17.7 reflects its robust economic framework and strategic geopolitical positioning. Finland has a well-developed welfare state, high levels of education, and a diversified economy, all of which contribute to its resilience. Additionally, Finland’s strong alignment with the European Union provides a buffer against external political risks.
8. Russia: Overall Exposure Score – 18.1
Russia’s score of 18.1 highlights its complex relationship with the U.S. and its strategic economic policies. Despite being subject to sanctions and political tensions, Russia has leveraged its vast natural resources and strategic alliances with other global powers to mitigate the impact of U.S. policies. Russia’s focus on self-sufficiency and regional influence has helped cushion potential risks.
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9. Netherlands: Overall Exposure Score – 19.9
The Netherlands, with a score of 19.9, benefits from its strong economic fundamentals and strategic positioning within the European Union. The country’s robust trade networks, advanced infrastructure, and stable political environment contribute to its low exposure. The Netherlands’ proactive approach to international diplomacy and economic diversification further bolsters its resilience.
10. Croatia: Overall Exposure Score – 20.5
Croatia rounds out the list with an exposure score of 20.5. The country’s integration into the European Union and efforts to boost its tourism sector have enhanced its economic stability. Croatia’s strategic location in the Balkans and its growing role within regional economic frameworks have also contributed to its lower vulnerability to external political influences.
