The #EndBadGovernance protest, which erupted in major cities across Nigeria last Thursday, has simmered down but its imprints can’t be ignored.
The demonstrators were driven by grievances over economic hardships, high food prices, removal of fuel subsidies, corruption, among other issues.
Nigeria is currently contending with a record high inflation rate of 34.19 per cent in June 2024 due to the two-time devaluation of the naira and removal of petrol subsidy.
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The inflationary trends have raised Nigeria’s interest rates by a combined 800 basis points from 18.75 percent in July 2023 to 26.75 percent currently as the central bank continues to deploy monetary tools to restore the battered economy.
Food inflation, which constitutes the largest percentage of the headline inflation, is currently at 40.87 percent. The cost of energy and transportation have skyrocketed in the last one year, making life difficult for the masses.
Violence in the north
The protests have exposed Nigeria’s age-old social challenges, including violence, killings, and lack of patriotism.
While the anti-government demonstrations were largely peaceful in the South, it was characterised by violence, looting, and clashes with security personnel in Kano, Katsina, Yobe, Kaduna, Jigawa Abuja and some parts of the northern region.
“Of the 30 people killed on the first day, 29 were killed in northern states such as the FCT (1), Borno(16), Kaduna(3), Kano(1), Katsina(2), and Niger(6). The only southern state that witnessed a death was Edo,” a report by SBM Intelligence, an Africa-focused market/security intel gathering and strategic consulting firm, titled ‘An August Nightmare: Assessing the Early Days of the #EndBadGovernance Protest in Nigeria,’ said.
Amnesty International also reported that scores were killed by security agents during the protests, but the Nigerian Police Force attributed the deaths to other causes.
Some analysts have argued that the protests were loud in the North because the region is most hit by the socioeconomic crisis faced by Nigerians.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), a staggering 86 million people in this region lived in multidimensional poverty as of 2022. Despite being home to roughly 70 percent of Nigeria’s population, the North grapples with soaring poverty rates and a huge number of children out of school.
Traditionally reliant on subsistence farming, the region’s inhabitants have been further crippled by the escalating security crisis. Bandits and kidnappers have seized vast territories in the northwest and central regions, disrupting livelihoods and sowing fear.
SBM Intelligence’s data revealed the disproportionate impact of kidnappings on the north, with the region experiencing more than 10 times the number of victims compared to the South between July 2023 and June 2024.
This surge in insecurity has not only disrupted daily life but has also exacerbated existing social and economic vulnerabilities, contributing to Nigeria’s overall security challenges.
“While hunger and economic woes affect the entire country, they are significantly more severe in the North,” the SBM stated.
Russian influence
The demonstrations also revealed concerning trends, including pro-Russian sentiments among some northern protesters and calls for a return to military rule. These developments pose a challenge to President Bola Tinubu’s pro-Western government.
The display of Russian flags and calls for military intervention in the north have implications for Nigeria’s stability.
“A similar infusion of pro-Russian sentiments in anti-government protests in West Africa was witnessed in Mali in 2020 during the protests against then-President Ibrahim Boubackar Keita. “During protests in support of the junta following the ouster of President Mohammed Bazoum in Niger in August 2023, some protesters also waved Russian flags while expressing anti-French sentiments,” SBM Intelligence noted.
This development is particularly concerning given the proximity of these northern states to Niger Republic and other Sahel nations, where Russia has significant influence.
The Wagner Group, a paramilitary organisation linked to Russia, has been known to support autocratic regimes and destabilise regions for strategic gains. The presence of such sentiments in Nigeria could indicate external influences seeking to exploit the country’s internal strife.
Although the Nigerian military and the Department of State Security (DSS) have swung into action by issuing warnings and making some arrests, such incidents must be thoroughly investigated, analysts say.
Moreover, the proximity to Niger Republic, where Wagner’s influence is strong, raises the specter of cross-border insurgency and further destabilisation. This situation could complicate Nigeria’s security landscape, already strained by Boko Haram and other insurgent groups operating in the north.
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Tinubu’s response
Despite the widespread violence in the North since Day 1, the president didn’t address the protesters until after the third day.
His address to the nation on Sunday has been condemned by many prominent Nigerians, including Peter Obi, the Labour Party candidate in the last presidential election, for failing to address the issues that triggered the protests and disconnected from the harsh realities faced by the people.
Tinubu outlined several economic measures aimed at mitigating the current crisis. One of his key proposals was to cultivate more than 10 million hectares of land to increase food production and achieve self-sufficiency.
The pervasive insecurity that plagues large swathes of the country, particularly in the North, raised doubts about the feasibility of this plan.
The ongoing insurgencies, banditry, and communal conflicts make large-scale agricultural projects challenging. Farmers in many northern regions face constant threats from armed groups, and the risk of violence has led to abandoned farmlands and disrupted food production. Without improvements in security, the goal of cultivating 10 million hectares appears overly ambitious.
“In early 2024, no less than N139 million was paid as farm levies (including planting and harvesting) to bandits who demanded at least N224 million across the North between 2020 and 2023,” SBM report said.
“In the same period leading up to June 2024, at least 1,356 farmers were killed across the country, with most of the killings occurring in the North,” it added.
