• Sunday, May 05, 2024
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BusinessDay

President Trump trails potential Democratic challengers in 2020 test

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US President Trump overcame formidable odds and discouraging poll numbers to win the White House in 2016.

More than a year out from the 2020 election, it appears he might have to repeat that performance to win a second term, according to a Washington Post-ABC News survey.

The new poll tested Trump against five potential general election challengers, and in four of those cases, the president trails, significantly or modestly.

He does worst against former vice president Joe Biden, but also runs well behind Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), and slightly behind Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Sen. Kamala D. Harris (D-Calif.).

Against South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Trump is numerically behind but the gap is within the range of sampling error.

Among all adults, whether registered to vote or not, the president never tops 41 percent support. Among registered voters, he does better, but his highest level of support against any candidate is 44 percent.

In 2016, he won 46 percent of the popular vote to Hillary Clinton’s 48 percent, but nonetheless won an electoral college majority by narrowly winning three northern states that had gone to the Democrats in the previous six elections.

Of all the Democrats tested against Trump, Biden currently does the best, aided by significant support from women.

He is ahead of the president by 15 points, 55 percent to 40 percent, among registered voters. Among all adults, he is at 54 percent and Trump is at 38 percent.

The pattern continues with the other candidates. Sanders runs ahead of Trump by nine points among registered voters and 12 points among all adults.

Warren has a seven-point edge among registered voters and an 11-point lead among all adults.

Trump also trails Harris by seven points among registered voters and is 10 percentage points back among all adults.

The Buttigieg-Trump margin is the closest, with registered voters splitting 47 percent for the South Bend mayor to Trump’s 43 percent, and adults overall tilting 47-41 in Buttigieg’s direction.