NUPRC estimates 22.5bcf daily gas demand in Nigeria by 2030

Gas demand in Nigeria could grow to 22.5 billion cubic feet per day by 2030 especially with the critical role it plays as a transition fuel in Nigeria’s net-zero pathway,the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has said.

This is an over 300 percent increase from the 4.9 billion cubic feet per day achieved in 2020. Gbenga Komolafe, Chief Executive Officer, Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), said while speaking at the 2023 Offshore Technology Conference (OPC) in Houston, Texas, USA.

“Furthermore, domestic consumption could account for 60 percent of total demand by 2030 compared to 30 percent in 2020; In just a decade, the demand landscape could change exponentially, especially if the power sector challenges are resolved; on the supply side, it is projected that onshore Non-Associated Gas will account for 47 percent of total gas supply by 2030,” he said.

Komolafe who spoke on ‘Energy Transition and Nigerian upstream oil and gas landscape: The Journey, Challenges and Way forward’ said that while deliberations on the global transition to renewable and sustainable energy is going on, proponents should consider the right of nations to harness their energy resources for their development goals.

“Between 2020 and 2030, demand is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 16.6 percent per annum driven by major projects such as the Nigeria Liquefied Natural Gas (NLNG) Train 7, in the base case scenario, and Nigeria/Morocco pipeline, NLNG Train 8 and Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK) pipeline, in the high case scenario,” he said.

He noted that with gas as Nigeria’s pathway to energy transition, Government has designed a programme that ensures that gas actually plays a role to combat barriers against industrial development.

“Infrastructure requirements and the suitable pricing framework which will serve as the enabler for unlocking the investments for the required infrastructure that will drive the convergence of demand and supply,” he said.

Komolafe noted that most players within the international financial ecosystem are progressively moving away from funding fossil fuel development, hence the decarbonisation story will need to be incorporated into Field Development Plans (FDPs) in order to attract funding.

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He said that Nigeria has for long recognised that the global shift towards decarbonised economies will lead to a structural decline in demand for unabated fossil fuels, and that the increasing cost competitiveness of renewable energy sources will present key risks and challenges for fossil fuel dependent economies.

“it becomes self-evident that we could not do away with our fossil fuels just yet; a balance had to be struck between the energy transition and the human transition,” he added.

Komolafe recommended that multiple pathways to energy transition should exist in order to ensure that no country is left behind in the process of achieving net-zero by 2050.

“Energy transition discussions should revolve around the implementation of a fair, equitable and sustainable energy mix that entrenches the principles of inclusiveness and guarantees energy security,” he said.