Nigeria to fund growth in a fracturing global economy

Nigeria can no longer rely on foreign capital alone to finance its development objectives as global investment flows become more selective and geopolitical tensions reshape trade and capital allocation, according to Boston Consulting Group (BCG).

Speaking at the firm’s 10th anniversary forum in Lagos, Tolu Aina, partner at BCG, said countries that succeed in the next phase of global economic growth will be those able to mobilise domestic savings, strengthen local capital markets and finance a larger share of their investment needs internally.

The remarks come as Nigeria competes for capital to finance infrastructure, industrial expansion and job creation, even as global investment flows become more selective and countries adjust to shifting geopolitical and trade dynamics.

Despite this backdrop, Nigeria recorded a sharp increase in capital importation in the first quarter of 2026, suggesting a short-term rebound in investor appetite.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show capital importation rose to $10.37 billion in the first quarter of 2026, representing an increase of 83.83 percent from $5.64 billion recorded in the corresponding period of 2025.

The increase was driven largely by foreign portfolio investment, reflecting improved liquidity in the foreign exchange market and attractive yields on Nigerian financial assets.

Aina said the global environment that supported decades of economic integration is changing as governments place greater emphasis on strategic interests, supply chain resilience and economic security.
“Capital is becoming more selective and countries can no longer assume that foreign investment will come simply because opportunities exist,” he said.

According to him, countries that emerge stronger in the evolving global order will be those capable of mobilising domestic resources and reducing reliance on external financing.
“The winners will no longer treat foreign investment as the measure of attractiveness. They will be able to take a bet on themselves,” Aina said.

He identified governance, domestic productive capacity and capital mobilisation as the factors that will determine competitiveness in the years ahead.

Aina also cited Nigeria’s pension industry as a potential source of long-term development finance, noting that the country has approximately $20 billion in pension assets, with about 60 percent invested in government securities.
“What will it take to unlock more into other sectors of the economy and enable us to use our own balance sheet to fund growth?” he asked.

His comments reflect a broader policy debate on how to channel domestic savings towards infrastructure, manufacturing, housing and other productive sectors while preserving the safety of pension assets.

Maurice Burns, managing director and senior partner at BCG London, said changes in global trade patterns, geopolitical rivalry and industrial policy are reshaping investment decisions across economies.
According to Burns, capital allocation, trade relationships and industrial strategies are increasingly influenced by national security considerations and geopolitical interests rather than efficiency alone.

He said countries across the Global South are accounting for a growing share of global economic expansion and are expected to contribute more than half of global growth by the end of the decade.
“The countries in Africa that can most manage internal inefficiencies, attract investment and find ways to benefit from growth are going to gain more than their fair share of the opportunities ahead,” Burns said.

Lagos State Governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, reinforced the call for greater reliance on domestic capacity, saying Nigeria must focus on building strong institutions and internal systems before depending on external support.

“We need to internalise a lot of these things. Africa must first carry its own burden before looking outward,” he said.

He said the country’s long-term growth will depend on its ability to build effective institutions and financial systems capable of supporting development, noting that Nigeria already has structural advantages, including a large population and significant natural resources.

As global capital becomes more selective and geopolitical tensions reshape trade and investment flows, Nigeria’s growth challenge is shifting from attracting foreign inflows to mobilising and deploying domestic resources more effectively.

Speakers at the forum said the country’s long-term trajectory will depend less on external financing and more on the strength of its institutions, depth of its financial markets and ability to convert its demographic and resource advantages into sustained economic output.