Nigeria on track to double oil output by 2030, regulator says

Nigeria’s ambitious target to double oil production to record levels by 2030 remains on track, spurred by recent steps to accelerate investment, according to the industry regulator.

“The national target is to get to 3 million barrels by 2030 — I believe we are able to get there,” said Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, the head of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission. “The major enablers are being addressed,” including quicker permitting and sales processes, she said.

Eyesan was appointed in December 2025 as part of a broader strategy by President Bola Tinubu to turn around a sector hobbled by a lack of investment. The authorities have also granted a raft of tax waivers and other incentives.

Earlier this month, Exxon’s announcement that it will begin drilling at a 40,000-barrel-a-day field from August, and a discovery by local explorer Renaissance Africa Energy, added momentum to the output drive.

Production is rising steadily, reaching a daily average rate of 1.56 million barrels a day in June, the highest for any month since April 2020, according to the NUPRC.

Nigerian-owned producers now account for about 60% of production, Eyesan said, with most taking advantage of elevated oil prices spawned by the US-Israeli war on Iran to restart old wells and drive production.

Still, Nigeria needs a lot more than reactivating mature fields to reach such a target, said Oliver Onyekweli, West African energy leader at consultancy McKinsey & Co.

“For the nation to improve its production, it needs new development in companies drilling and bringing new resources into production,” he said.