“If there is good thinking without action, it yields nothing. Many can generate wonderful ideas, but the doers become heroes. Greatness begins with good thinking but must be followed by decisive action. We thought it through, yet action was aborted.”
These words echo the experience of Michael Omolayole, a former member of Nigeria’s Vision 2010 committee.
Back in 1996, the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG), representing the organised private sector, pitched a bold 13-year agenda to the military government of Sani Abacha.
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This Vision 2010 plan targeted an economic growth rate of at least 10 percent per annum, with inflation kept below 5 percent until 2010.
But despite its strong potential, Vision 2010 was discarded by successive administrations. As Daniel Obi writes in Lost Vision, every administration seems to dismiss the plans of the past, often for reasons as trivial as political rivalry—as allegedly occurred when President Olusegun Obasanjo dismissed Abacha’s Vision 2010 simply due to prior conflicts with Abacha himself.
This is where Nigeria falters. Beautiful visions can remain on paper, and without the drive to act, we risk repeating these mistakes.
The current Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) forecasts the economy to grow at 4.6 percent in 2025, yet with targets of the last ten years missed by an average of 41.57 percent, this may become another hopeful projection.
Similarly, the government’s 2025 inflation target of 15.75 percent looks unlikely, with recent figures showing a significant 36 percent gap from the 2024 target.
“But despite its strong potential, Vision 2010 was discarded by successive administrations.”
Optimistically, the government forecasts that inflation will continue to decrease, eventually reaching 10 percent by 2027. Yet aside from a brief moment of success in 2019-2020, inflation has continually missed targets, with gaps as wide as 31.5 percent on average in recent years. The government’s economic growth target has similarly missed by nearly 18 percent on average in the last six years.
As a developing economy, Nigeria ideally should aim for double-digit growth, as Bola Tinubu, Nigerian President, promised in his manifesto. This aligns with the convergence theory in economics, championed by Robert Solow’s 1956 Solow-Swan Growth Model.
The theory posits that poorer nations have the potential to grow faster than wealthy ones by adopting technologies and capital from developed economies. Countries like South Korea, China, Singapore, and Taiwan have shown how a growth strategy based on industrialisation and diversification can help developing nations close the gap with advanced economies.
These nations opened themselves to global markets, invested in education, and strategically developed sectors like manufacturing and technology. Stable, supportive governance and targeted policies also attracted foreign investment, bolstered infrastructure, and fostered domestic savings, all of which fuelled sustainable growth.
Sadly, Nigeria still lags in adopting technologies that would accelerate its growth. If you visit Nigeria’s seaport in Lagos, you’ll see even simple items like plastics being imported—a stark reminder of how the nation’s growth is still hampered by a lack of self-sufficiency and domestic production.
According to the government, the non-oil sector is expected to drive future growth, supported by increased domestic refining, telecoms, crop production, and job creation. The roadmap to achieving this is through increased investments in infrastructure, agriculture, and social services.
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But historically, Nigeria’s capital expenditure on infrastructure frequently falls short, while recurrent expenses exceed targets. Major issues in the non-oil sector, like high energy costs and logistical bottlenecks, remain unaddressed.
Domestic oil refining is seen as a growth engine, yet Nigeria’s largest refinery, Dangote, faces barriers like crude supply issues that have forced it to source internationally.
Moreover, neither the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) nor oil marketers have stepped up to purchase substantial refined products from the company. These supply chain and policy obstacles stifle both the oil and non-oil sectors’ potential, which cannot afford to be left unresolved if the economy is to move forward.
In the early years post-independence, Nigeria’s problem was different. We met local demand for manufactured goods but failed to produce for export—a shortcoming noted by Obi in his book.
When people say Nigeria hasn’t progressed since the 1980s, this is what they mean: today, most household items are imported, and the quality of domestically produced goods falls short of their foreign counterparts.
Projected nominal consumption is set to rise to N206.83 trillion in 2025, then N233.31 trillion and N263.95 trillion in 2026 and 2027, largely due to wage increases from the new minimum wage and cash transfers to households.
However, 92.7 percent of Nigeria’s workforce is in the informal sector, meaning the new wage will barely impact the general population, as former economic adviser Doyin Salami points out. Private sector wages have often exceeded the minimum wage even before government adjustments, and for most Nigerians, the solution lies in creating productive jobs to lift people out of poverty.
A member of the Nigerian Association of Macroeconomic Modellers mentioned the link between minimum wage and direct consumption. While consumption is set to increase nominally, the soaring prices of essentials like food and housing will likely offset any real gains.
Rent inflation, particularly in cities like Lagos, means that while wages may rise, the cost of living continues to surge, leaving many Nigerians struggling.
Governance, as Vincent Maduka, former director-general of NTA, once said, should be about lifting people to where they aspire to be, not merely where they are.
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Maduka also highlighted the importance of having institutions to drive the government’s vision. As he advised, “We need an institution to work alongside governance, an advisory body to ensure these visions come to life.”
Conclusion
The path to 10 percent inflation and 5.5 percent growth by 2027 may look good on paper, but without strong and strategic action, it risks becoming yet another unfulfilled promise. Nigeria’s growth must be more than a collection of targets; it must be a cohesive, disciplined pursuit driven by both vision and action.
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