How Dangote is expanding African footprint with $23bn cross-border investment

The Dangote Group has committed $22.6 billion from its planned $45 billion capital expansion programme across Africa, indicating an aggressive push to deepen its industrial footprint beyond Nigeria, BusinessDay analysis has shown.

Aliko Dangote, President and Chief Executive of the Dangote Group, announced that the investment forms part of a broader expansion strategy covering the period between 2026 and 2030.

“As a Group, we now have $45 billion to spend,” Dangote said. “What we are trying to do now is to look at our income, what is our income stream, what is our revenue, and what is our EBITDA that we will have between 2026 and 2030…”

The planned capital deployment spans refining, petrochemicals, fertiliser, cement, energy infrastructure and other industrial projects across multiple African markets as the group positions itself as one of the continent’s dominant industrial and manufacturing players.

Read also: The Dangote Refinery IPO and the repricing of Nigerian capital market ambition

A BusinessDay survey showed that the Group has announced multiple investments across Nigeria, Ethiopia, Zimbabwe, and the Southern African hemisphere and East Africa.

Dangote increases Ethiopia investment to $4bn
Dangote has increased the planned investment in a proposed fertiliser plant in Ethiopia from $2.5 billion to more than $4 billion, significantly expanding the scope of the project.

He announced the revised investment commitment on Sunday, May 17, according to an official statement issued by the Ethiopian government media and the Dangote Group.

The group disclosed that the expanded investment package now includes the construction of a 110-kilometre pipeline, a 120-megawatt power plant, a polypropylene packaging facility and a two-million-tonne NPK fertiliser blending plant.

Eyeing Kenya for $17bn refinery project
Last week, Dangote announced considering Kenya as the preferred location for a proposed 650,000 barrels-per-day oil refinery in East Africa, marking a potential shift from earlier plans centred on Tanzania.

Dangote disclosed the development in an interview with the Financial Times, stating that he is leaning towards the Kenyan coastal city of Mombasa because of its strategic port infrastructure and stronger market potential.

The proposed refinery, estimated to cost between $15 billion and $17 billion, comes barely a year after the operational ramp-up of the 650,000 barrels-per-day Dangote Petroleum Refinery, currently regarded as the world’s largest single-train refinery.

According to the report, the planned East African refinery would process crude oil from Uganda and other international suppliers, while helping to reduce the region’s dependence on imported refined petroleum products.

Zimbabwe, Southern Africa pipeline push
In Southern Africa, Dangote is leading a proposed $1 billion investment programme covering cement production, power generation and a 2,000-kilometre petroleum pipeline linking Namibia to Zimbabwe.

Industry analysts said the pipeline project could significantly strengthen regional fuel logistics and reduce supply bottlenecks across parts of Southern Africa if completed.

Read also: Nigeria fuel marketers push back on Dangote lawsuit over import licences

The investment also reflects Dangote Group’s growing focus on integrated infrastructure projects combining energy, industrial production and regional distribution networks.

Nigeria refinery expansion
In Nigeria, the group signed a $400 million equipment agreement with Xuzhou Construction Machinery Group to support the refinery expansion programme.

The planned scale-up would potentially position the Lagos-based facility among the world’s largest refining hubs, further strengthening Nigeria’s role in regional petroleum product supply.

The move comes as the refinery continues to shape fuel pricing, supply patterns and market competition within Nigeria’s deregulated downstream petroleum sector.

In addition, Dangote engaged Honeywell late last year to provide technical services to help double refining capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day by 2028.

Although financial details of the Honeywell agreement were not officially disclosed, a source familiar with the transaction said the contract could be worth more than $250 million, reflecting the scale and complexity of the expansion project.

Ghana’s $162m sugar, agriculture investment
In Ghana, Dangote Group is investing $162 million in a large-scale sugar refinery and a 25,000-hectare irrigated farming project in the Bono Region.

The project is aimed at reducing Ghana’s dependence on imported sugar while strengthening domestic agricultural value chains and food processing capacity.