The Economist Intelligence Unit, EIU says Nigeria’s cash-government will continue to struggle in its battle to contain insurgency in the country after at least 42 people were killed in an attack on a village market in Sokoto.
According to analysts at EIU, “our view remains that the cash-strapped administration will struggle to contain the unrest, despite the vast sums of money spent on the security forces, and the risk of worsening political instability in the period leading to the forthcoming elections is high.”
The assault on the weekly market in Goronyo began in the evening of October 17th and lasted into the following morning, the Sokoto state governor’s office said in a statement on October 18th.
The motive behind the raid remains unclear, although it has widely been attributed to bandits.
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In recent years many parts of northern Nigeria have been dogged by violence driven by various causes, including kidnapping for ransom, Islamist fundamentalist insurgency and clashes between militia herdsmen and settled farmers.
According to SBM Intelligence, a Lagos‑based data and research firm, the north accounted for 85% of the 2,287 people that were reported in the media as killed in violent attacks in Nigeria in the third quarter of 2021; these included civilians, assailants and security personnel.
The federal government has said that tackling the security crisis that threatens to destabilise many parts of the country is its top priority.
The finance minister, Zainab Ahmed, recently stated that Nigeria’s widespread security challenges mean that the country has technically been at war, resulting in massive expenditure on security equipment and operations, contributing to the fiscal deficit.
She noted that defence and security accounted for 22% of the 2021 budget. Provision for the sector amounts to 19.8% of non‑debt recurrent expenditure and capital spending in the administration’s proposed 2022 budget, which is currently before parliament.
There is increasing concern that the situation will worsen as Nigeria enters the run‑up to the 2023 general elections, which are likely to be closely contested.
