… Mulls contingency plan for peaceful exit if negotiations fail
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has intensified talks with Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger for a possible return to the regional bloc while also working out a contingency plan for their peaceful exit in case ongoing efforts fail by January 29, 2025.
This is according to Abdel-Fatau Musah, ECOWAS commissioner for political affairs, peace, and security, who spoke in an exclusive interview with BusinessDay.
This development comes amid rising political tensions in the region, concerns over insecurity as well as the potential economic and security consequences for the entire region.
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One step to bring these three countries back into the fold include the appointment of Bassirou Diomaye Faye of Senegal to serve as a mediator as ECOWAS leaders work through diplomatic channels to resolve the crisis.
“The situation remains fluid, and the coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether ECOWAS can maintain its cohesion or face a significant rupture in its ranks”, Musah said.
Musah underscored the “profound economic, political and security implications” that such a withdrawal could entail, stressing the critical need for unity within the organisation during these challenging times.
Despite ECOWAS ongoing efforts to prevent the split, Musah acknowledged the possibility that Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger might still choose to leave.
According to the ECOWAS treaty, a member state wishing to withdraw must provide a 12-month notice – and in the Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger case, the deadline is set for January 29, 2025. “We still have a few months of negotiations to make sure that things happen,” Musah said, adding that ECOWAS was preparing for all possible outcomes in this delicate situation.
“We are not enemies, we have had differences, differences can be resolved, but if, and it’s a big if, if they decide, you know, that their future belongs elsewhere, ECOWAS as a community is already preparing contingency plans in case of a withdrawal,” he stated.
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“We are using all methods. The doors of ECOWAS will always remain open.”
Musah expressed deep concern over the potential disruption to regional trade and economic integration should these countries follow through with their withdrawal plans.
“If these countries exit, it could disrupt regional trade, especially in essential goods like protein-based products and energy supplies, and complicate diplomatic relations for all involved,” Musah warned.
As the deadline approaches, the region remains on edge, as their potential withdrawal could also reshape the economic and diplomatic landscape of West Africa.
ECOWAS is not only concerned about the immediate economic fallout but also the broader impact on regional stability.
The ongoing security challenges in West Africa, particularly terrorism and violent extremism, are also a significant concern.
The region has been plagued by terrorism since the early 2000s, with groups like Boko Haram and various factions of Al-Qaeda and ISIS operating in the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin.
Consequently, ECOWAS, just last week, initiated a counter-terrorism force, with plans to deploy around 1,700 well-equipped troops to combat these threats.
Musah emphasised that the fight against terrorism must also address underlying issues such as poverty and marginalisation, which make it easier for terrorist groups to recruit young people.
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He further assured that the organization is focusing on providing basic infrastructure, education, and healthcare to improve living conditions and reduce the appeal of extremist ideologies.
He urged renewed efforts to maintain cohesion, stressing that the collective strength of the region is vital for its future prosperity.
Musah emphasised the substantial benefits that member states currently enjoy under ECOWAS, particularly in terms of trade.
He noted that products originating from ECOWAS member countries benefit from tariff-free trade within the region.
“Products that originate from any of our member states go into other countries tariff-free,” Musah explained, highlighting the economic advantages of remaining within the bloc.
He warned that withdrawal would subject these countries to the same tariffs as goods coming from outside the region, potentially harming local businesses.
“Even though they [the withdrawing countries] constitute barely 17 percent of the regional GDP, they occupy about 54 percent of the landmass of the region,” he stated.
He stressed the significance of leveraging these resources for collective growth and regretted the resurgence of superpower confrontations in the region – citing the conflict in Mali as an example, where international powers have become increasingly involved.
“You are turning our region once more into an arena of superpower confrontations, and this is what ECOWAS wants to avoid,” he cautioned.
Despite the difficulties, Musah expressed optimism about the future of ECOWAS and its ability to navigate these challenges.
Read also: Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger strengthen military ties, shun ECOWAS
Looking ahead, a critical steps being taken at the moment instill to good leadership and forestall similar incidents in the future includes revising ECOWAS supplementary protocol on democracy and good governance.
“The goal is to close loopholes that allow leaders to manipulate constitutional processes for personal gain, particularly concerning term limits.
“This move aims to prevent presidents from extending their mandates through constitutional changes, a tactic that has contributed to political instability in the region”, Musah stated.
Musah also pointed out the need to strengthen the judiciary’s independence across member states, as it has often been used to suppress opposition and maintain power, undermining democratic processes.
Meanwhile, ECOWAS is planning a major summit involving civil society, the business community, and other regional stakeholders to strategize on the future of regional integration.
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Musah said it was important for the region to reposition itself in the face of a rapidly changing global environment, emphasizing the importance of unity in achieving continental stability and growth.
“Despite the challenges and weaknesses, the movement is forward,” Musah mentioned, urging all member states to work together towards a unified and prosperous West Africa.
