Businesses on edge as COVID-19 third wave peaks

Businesses could be back on the brink of scrambling for strategies to escape the weight of an economy at standstill as the surge of COVID-19 third wave brings Nigeria closer to a possible lockdown decision.

The peak of Nigeria’s third wave of Covid-19 pandemic has begun, disease experts confirm, predicting that further rise in infections should be expected in the coming days as weak compliance with preventive measures persist.

The Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) reported a 222 percent rise in infections on Wednesday as 1, 149 new cases were confirmed.

The spike following a daily average of 560 infections since the beginning of August marks the start of what experts describe as a peaking curve, which they say isn’t shocking since community spread of the virus has continued and importation through in-bound travellers keep pacing.

If the rate of new infections blows out of the government’s control, businesses still struggling to match their growth with pre-pandemic levels could lose current gains of recovery.

The last time Nigeria saw a similar amount of single-daily infections was in December 2020 (1,145 cases) just as the second wave of the pandemic began to peak towards 2,314.

Oyewale Tomori, a professor of virology in a chat with BusinessDay wondered why many Nigerians still do not believe the COVID-19 virus is circulating in the country despite rising numbers from only one-third of the 36 states.

Caution has been thrown to the wind since governments lifted lockdown and eased activities in many sectors of the economy. People stopped wearing masks, hand-washing basins have disappeared in public places and physical distancing are not maintained except in some corporate organisations.

The rising cases are especially bad news for business entities in Lagos state where a majority of the cases (37.6 percent) come from and has the potential to be hardest hit by any severe measure taken to stop the virus in its tracks.

“The virus-like mobile phone is immobile until human beings move it around and allow the virus to mutate and become variants of concern. Masks can stop the virus in its tracts including the variants,” Tomori, former vice-chancellor of Bowen University told BusinessDay.

“More important than government regulation and guidelines is the compliance by the citizens. We, the people, play a more important role than the government in covid19 control.”

The first wave of the pandemic in 2020 and the economic meltdown that followed had companies experience little or no sales, leading to expiration, damage of inventories and reduction in prices in some cases.

In other instances, a complete shutdown of operations resulted in idle property, demand and revenue decline for companies, increase in operating costs and fall in share prices amongst others, PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), an international consulting firm said in a report on key financial reporting implications of COVID-19 on organisations in Nigeria.

Apart from those in the telecommunication and digital entertainment industries that experienced a significant increase in revenue from increased demand for voice and data services, most others saw declining revenue, affecting employees.

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A survey conducted by the Centre for Economic Policy Research in March indicated that traders had virtually zero revenue during a month-long lockdown.

And even though sales rebounded more than employment after reopening, neither returned to pre-pandemic levels. Traders reported low sales, lack of cash on hand, and challenges with sourcing as significant problems facing their business.

“Although most traders raised their prices to cope with the impacts, very few took out loans. Traders are interested in new strategies to cope with low demand and supply challenges. Policies to facilitate traders’ access to e-commerce and remote sales, as well as strategies to improve supply chain failures could help address these issues,” the report stated.

The country has seen substantial relaxation in containment measures locally and internationally, which has supported the resumption of commercial and trade activities and spurred a modest economic performance in the first half.

Some considerable increases in trade volume have been recorded since the start of the year, amid a low vaccination rate, with Nigeria’s trade with the global community, for instance, rising to around N9 trillion between January and March this year.

Similarly, the scale of contraction in the Nigerian trade sector moderated from a double-digit to a single digit in the first quarter.

If these gains must be protected, a lockdown situation must be averted.

Although the federal government on Thursday ruled out a third lockdown over the presence of the Delta variant of coronavirus in the country, saying that the current threats are not at a level where another national shutdown will be considered.

If need be, he said it would be a precision lockdown.

Osagie Ehanire, Health minister said that apart from the vaccines sourced free of charge, Nigeria has paid for about 30 million doses of Johnson & Johnson doses.

“Lockdown is the last measure that countries have taken because our lockdown stifles economic activity, restricts your own freedom and your business – both corporate business, government business, private business are affected,” Ehanire said.

“…when we were compelled to have that lockdown at the beginning we learnt a lot of lessons. We are not at the level yet where we are feeling that threat to do any lockdown,”

In a mailed response to BusinessDay, Chikwe Ihekweazu, NCDC director-general said the recent increases in COVID-19 infections which has been associated with the Delta variant of the virus in most countries has more to do with the resumption of social gatherings with poor adherence to public health and social measures in Nigeria.

The situation, he said, highlights the urgent need for Nigerians to take personal and collective responsibility, noting that the pandemic is not over.

“It is important that we recognise the risk the virus poses and adhere to the known preventive measures by avoiding large gatherings, wearing a face mask properly in public settings, washing hands regularly with clean water and soap or using alcohol-based hand sanitiser where the former is unavailable,” Ihekweazu said.