Despite successes recorded by the Nigerian military against the outlawed group, Boko Haram in recent weeks, the peaceful conduct of the forth-coming general election is still in doubt as the seeming tensed atmosphere and controversies trailing the purported threat by the militant group have put many electorates in fear over the safety of their lives and property during and after the conduct of the polls.
Boko Haram had recently invaded the northeastern Nigeria city of Gombe where they reportedly warned residents against voting in the next month’s elections.
“Whoever professes Islam should distance himself from polling stations because we are going to attack polling booths,” read a leaflet released by Boko Haram.
Abubaker Shekau, leader of the outlawed group also claimed in a video released last week that they would ensure “the coming elections will not happen in peace even if that will cost us our lives’’.
Aside from the threat from the extremist group, the pre-election violence recorded in some places across the country has also sent jitters down the spines of many electorates.
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This development has generated mixed reactions from Nigerians over the capability of the military to forestall impending violence in the coming general elections.
From the report released by the National Human Rights Commission during the week, 58 persons have died in election violence across the country between December 3 and January 31, 2014. Chidi Odinkalu, Chairman, Governing Council of the commission, while highlighting the content of the report, noted that the 58 deaths had resulted from 49 election-related violence across 22 states in the country. Executive Secretary of the commission, Bem Angwe, said the report, which is also an advisory to the government and key political actors, was part of the responsibilities of the NHRC in protecting the rights of Nigerians.
With 11 incidents resulting in 22 deaths, Lagos topped the list of states with the most devastating record of election-related violence within the period surveyed.
Kaduna State recorded three incidents resulting in nine deaths. Gombe State recorded three incidents resulting in five deaths; Taraba State, one incident, four deaths; Ogun State, two incidents, four deaths; Bayelsa State, one incident, three deaths; Akwa Ibom State, two incidents, three deaths; and Kano State, two incidents, two deaths.
The report indicated that the South-West recorded the highest number of 28 deaths resulting from election-related violence within the same period, followed by North-West, with 11 deaths; North-East, nine deaths; South-South, eight deaths; and South-East, two deaths.
Although Odinkalu said the commission was working on a plan to get President Goodluck Jonathan, who is the presidential candidate of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), and the candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Muhammadu Buhari, to address Nigerians on the need for them to eschew violence in the forthcoming polls, analysts expressed diverse views of the effect this is going to have on the mitigation of election violence because the Abuja peace accord deal signed by PDP, APC and other presidential candidates have not yielded much impact on stepping in the tides of electoral violence in the country.
Speaking with BusinessDay, Tunde Salman, a political analyst and the team leader of Good Governance Team (GGT) Abuja, said issues of pre-and post-election violence have always been contending in the nation’s electoral history. He affirmed that the threats by the Boko Haram insurgents will largely affect the turnout of people coming out to vote on election days.
“Generally, voters’ apathy not only in Nigeria but worldwide is reducing, when we have things like this (Boko Haram’s threat) coming up, it will affect the numbers of people coming out to vote. There is even a discovery in Western Europe called democratic deficits, that is, people are no longer coming up to participate in civic responsibilities like elections because of the general dissatisfaction with the leaders worldwide,” said Salman
He, however, said: “With huge successes, the military has recorded, we can give them the benefit of doubt to flush the insurgents out within six weeks promised for the country to conduct the elections under a peaceful atmosphere.
When asked to comment on what the threat by Boko Haram will have on the strategies the military has put in place to achieve peaceful general elections, Oluwole Osaze-Uzzi, INEC’S Director of Voter Education and Publicity told BusinessDay that it was only the security forces that could guaranty the peaceful conduct of the polls.
“I think the security forces are in a better position to answer that but are not likely to make such plans public,’’ Uzzi said.
The military could not be reached for comments as several calls and text messages placed by BusinessDay to the telephone line of the Director of Defence Information, Chris Olukolade, were neither picked nor replied to.
KEHINDE ABDULSALAM
