• Thursday, November 07, 2024
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12 days to US election, check out who’s leading the polls

12 days to US election, check out who’s leading the polls

With just 12 days until the US election, Vice President Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are intensifying campaigns in battleground states, addressing undecided voters on whose agenda for the nation is the best.

According to tracking data from the Election Lab at the University of Florida, nearly 25 million voters have already cast their ballots, either through in-person early voting or mail-in ballots.

What are the polls saying?

A new poll from the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) released on Wednesday revealed that Trump is leading Harris by 2 percentage points nationally, with 47 percent to her 45 percent. This contrasts with Harris’s 2-point lead in the WSJ’s August survey. Both margins are within the polls’ margins of error, suggesting that either candidate could be in the lead. Most polls to date have shown Harris ahead in the national vote, with the two candidates neck-and-neck in battleground states.

Read also: 13 days to election Harris, Trump maintain close margin in battleground states

According to the WSJ the survey also suggests that voters have developed a more favourable perception of Trump’s agenda and past performance, while their view of Harris has become more negative.

In a separate analysis from FiveThirtyEight’s daily election poll tracker, as of Wednesday, Harris is slightly ahead in the average of national polls, leading Trump by 1.8 percentage points. However, the long-term trend shows the race tightening, with the gap continuing to narrow.

While national surveys provide valuable insights into voter sentiment, the Electoral College will determine the ultimate winner, which depends on results from individual states.

The seven key swing states that could determine who wins are Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), North Carolina (16), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10) and Nevada (6). Together, they account for 93 Electoral College votes.

“Currently, in these swing seven states, Harris has a razor-thin lead in Nevada and Wisconsin and a slightly larger lead in Michigan, which has increased from a narrow 0.2 percent to 0.7 percent. Trump has a lead of more than 1.5 percent in Arizona and Georgia, with North Carolina and Pennsylvania also showing very narrow margins in his favour,” Al Jazeera reported.

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