Tinubu at three: Stronger numbers, tougher lives

…Nigerians award more red marks than blue

…Worsening cost-of-living crisis, insecurity top areas of concern

Three years ago, when President Bola Ahmed Tinubu stood before Nigerians and declared that fuel subsidy was gone, he effectively set the tone for what would become one of the most consequential and controversial presidencies in the country’s democratic history.

The decision, taken on his first day in office on May 29, 2023, was presented as the beginning of a painful but necessary journey to rescue an economy weighed down by distortions, mounting debts and declining investor confidence. It was a bold gamble. Three years later, as Tinubu marks the penultimate of his first term, Nigerians are still debating whether the pain has been worth the promise.

The verdict from many citizens is mixed, but one theme dominates the conversation: while the government may have improved some macroeconomic indicators, the average Nigerian continues to struggle with a worsening cost-of-living crisis.

In what has become a recurring assessment of the administration, many observers argue that Tinubu has done more for Nigeria’s economic books than for the people whose lives those numbers are supposed to improve.

The numbers tell two stories

The figures tell a story of dramatic change. When Tinubu assumed office, petrol sold for around N200 per litre. Today, the price is above N1,300 in many parts of the country. The naira, which exchanged for about N450 to the dollar at the official market and roughly N750 at the parallel market in May 2023, now hovers around N1,400. Public debt has surged significantly, while inflation climbed from 22.41 percent at the beginning of the administration to a peak of 34.8 percent in late 2024 before moderating after the rebasing of the Consumer Price Index in 2025.

Yet, the government points to another set of numbers.

Economic growth has improved. Nigeria’s GDP growth rate has risen from 2.51 percent to 3.89 percent. Foreign reserves have expanded considerably. The minimum wage has more than doubled from N30,000 to N70,000. International investors, once wary of Nigeria’s foreign exchange policies, have gradually returned, encouraged by reforms in the currency market and changes at the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

These contrasting realities have created a widening disconnect between economic statistics and everyday experiences.

The cost-of-living squeeze

For millions of Nigerians, life has become more expensive than at any other period in recent memory.

Food prices have soared. Transportation costs have multiplied. Rent has become increasingly unaffordable in major cities. Families that once managed modestly now struggle to cover basic necessities. The middle class has shrunken under the weight of rising expenses, while many low-income households have fallen deeper into poverty.

Small businesses, often described as the backbone of Nigeria’s economy, have borne some of the harshest consequences.

The country’s micro, small and medium enterprises have been squeezed by soaring energy costs, expensive loans, declining consumer spending and persistent infrastructure challenges. Many entrepreneurs who survived previous economic downturns have found the current environment particularly unforgiving.

Small businesses bear the brunt

According to business leaders, millions of small enterprises have either shut down or drastically reduced operations during the last three years.

For Femi Egbesola, president, Association of Small Business Owners of Nigeria, the administration’s first three years have represented a period of economic correction whose benefits have yet to reach ordinary Nigerians.

While acknowledging the need for reforms, he argues that businesses are operating under immense pressure from rising production costs, weak purchasing power and worsening insecurity.

“If we really must grow, if we really must industrialise, if we really must create employment for our people, then we must continue to support the MSME sector,” Egbesola said during his appearance on News Central on Friday.

“We expect the government to be more intentional about supporting small businesses more than ever before,” he said, calling for tax reliefs, incentives, affordable financing and transport support for citizens to ease the impact of ongoing economic reforms.

His concerns reflect a broader sentiment among operators in the real sector who believe that economic reforms must eventually translate into tangible benefits such as job creation, business expansion and improved living standards.

The challenge for the Tinubu administration is that economic reforms often require time, while public patience is finite.

Supporters of the government insist that many of the painful decisions should have been implemented years earlier. They argue that successive administrations postponed difficult choices, leaving Tinubu to confront problems that had accumulated over decades.

Jimi Ogbobine, head of Consulting at Augusto & Co., belongs to this school of thought.

In his assessment, the administration inherited an economy that required urgent structural adjustment. The removal of fuel subsidy, exchange-rate unification and monetary reforms were painful but unavoidable steps to restore credibility and attract investment.

“If you ask the international rating agencies, has this made Nigeria more credible? I think their actions basically reflect their thoughts,” he said, citing upgrades from global agencies. However, he acknowledged that many Nigerians facing higher transport fares, food prices and electricity tariffs would see things differently.

He described the previous administration as “nearly like a wasted decade” economically, arguing that delayed reforms forced Tinubu’s government to undertake painful but necessary changes within a short period.

Ogbobine defended the removal of fuel subsidy and the unification of the foreign exchange market, saying the old system discouraged investment and was unsustainable.

“Nobody’s on the queue for fuel in Nigeria. Are the prices higher? Yes, they are. Is supply available? Yes, it is,” he said.

Perhaps, nowhere is this disconnect more evident than in the electricity sector. Despite repeated promises of improved power supply, Nigeria still generates less than 6,000 megawatts for a population exceeding 200 million people. Businesses continue to rely heavily on generators, while households grapple with rising electricity tariffs and unreliable service.

The result is a cycle in which higher operating costs are passed on to consumers, further worsening inflationary pressures.

Insecurity persists

Security is another area where many Nigerians believe the administration has fallen short.

Although the government has repeatedly highlighted military successes against insurgents and criminal groups, insecurity remains a defining feature of national life.

Across parts of northern Nigeria, bandits, terrorists and kidnappers continue to threaten communities and disrupt economic activities. In recent months, incidents of abduction and violent attacks have also become more prominent in parts of the South, raising concerns about the geographical spread of insecurity.

The kidnapping of schoolchildren in Oriire Local Government Area of Oyo State is among the latest reminders that the security challenge remains far from resolved.

The international dimension of Nigeria’s security crisis became more pronounced in 2025 when the United States redesignated Nigeria as a Country of Particular Concern, leading to expanded security engagements between both countries.

For many Nigerians, however, the true measure of security is not diplomatic cooperation but whether they can travel freely, farm safely and conduct business without fear. That expectation remains unmet in many communities.

When growth doesn’t feel like growth

The administration’s defenders argue that judging reforms solely through present hardship ignores their long-term objectives. They contend that stabilising the economy, improving fiscal discipline and attracting investment are prerequisites for sustainable growth.

Critics counter that reforms without adequate social protection place disproportionate burdens on ordinary citizens.

Samson Simon, chief economist, ARKK, captures this tension. While supporting the objectives behind subsidy removal and foreign exchange reforms, he believes implementation has been inadequate and social safety nets insufficient.

According to him, the government may have succeeded in improving several macroeconomic indicators, but the average Nigerian has yet to experience meaningful relief.

“We need to see poverty coming down; we need to see a better standard of living for Nigerians,” he said. “For now, things are still not working as far as the average Nigerian is concerned.”

His observation highlights what may be the defining challenge of Tinubu’s presidency: translating economic recovery into human welfare.

Three years into the administration, the president’s report card remains deeply polarising.

Supporters see a leader willing to make difficult decisions that previous governments avoided. They point to economic restructuring, improved investor confidence and stronger fiscal management as foundations for future prosperity.

Critics see an administration whose policies have imposed unprecedented hardship on citizens without delivering commensurate improvements in living conditions. They point to rising poverty, struggling businesses, persistent insecurity and declining purchasing power as evidence that the reforms are failing ordinary people.

Both perspectives contain elements of truth.

Tinubu’s first three years have been defined by bold reforms, economic turbulence and profound social consequences. The administration has undeniably altered the trajectory of Nigeria’s economy, but whether that trajectory ultimately leads to shared prosperity remains uncertain.

As the president begins the last year of his term, Nigerians are not merely asking whether reforms were necessary. They are asking a more immediate question: when will the promised benefits reach their homes, businesses and communities?

Until that answer becomes visible in everyday life, many citizens will continue to mark Tinubu’s script with more red ink than blue.