…Say, democracy in peril
Many Nigerian citizens have expressed worries over the seeming capture of the nation’s electoral system by the political class and their cronies. They have also said that the country was in serious danger if the conduct of recent elections was anything to go by.
They described flawed polls seen in recent off-cycle governorship elections as threat to democracy in Nigeria and a sign that the country still has a long way to go in ensuring credible, free and fair polls.
For them, the flawed elections have robbed the country of purposeful leadership over the years and undermined development in the country, setting it back among its peers.
Despite the enthusiasm of Nigerians to take part in the electoral process, just like the 2023 general election, their hopes have been consistently dashed by fraudulent off-cycle polls the outcome of which appears to be predetermined.
In the last one year, the country has conducted off-cycle gubernatorial elections in Imo, Bayelsa, Kogi, Edo and the latest in Ondo State on November 16. Except for Bayelsa State which was won by the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), the other four states were won by the All Progressives Congress (APC).
However, the conduct of these elections by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), has been heavily criticised, not just by the opposition, but also major stakeholders and observer groups in the country.
Although winners have emerged in these states, a common feature of these elections was voter suppression, occasioned by the desperation of political actors to win at all cost.
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Reports of electoral violations were common with incidents of violence, ballot-snatching, abduction of election officials, and vote-buying characterising the elections.
Even many voters prefer to stay away for either fear of violence or because they felt their votes would not count. In these states, almost everything went wrong despite the massive deployment of security forces on election day.
“Some of us thought we have seen it all in the 2023 general election, but recent off-cycle gubernatorial polls have not been different, the audacity to manipulate people’s will appears to be even more bold.
“It is a dangerous signal for democracy here, but the signs have been there for long only. It shows our electoral process needs total overhauling and I don’t see this government ready for that,” Lukman Olabode, a development expert said.
In the Edo gubernatorial election for example, election results for each local government were announced at the INEC headquarters in the state, instead of the collation centres despite protestations by voters and candidates, which was a violation of the commission’s guideline.
The hijack of the ballot boxes away from the collation centres gave election officials an opportunity to allegedly tamper with results in favour of their preferred candidate.
Civil society organisations (CSOs), which monitored the election, faulted the outcome, declaring that the results from several polling units were altered at collation centres.
“These inconsistencies with Yiaga Africa’s PRVT estimates indicate that the Edo election results were altered at the level of collation. The disparities between the official results released by INEC and Yiaga Africa’s PRVT estimates indicate manipulation of results during the collation process.
“Yiaga Africa condemns the actions of some biased INEC officials, who altered figures during collation, including the actions of some security officials, who interfered with the collation process,” part of Yiaga Africa’s report about the election stated.
Speaking on the conduct of the Edo poll, Martins Obono, executive director of TAP Initiative, alleged that INEC actively participated in rigging the election.
Obono, who is a lawyer, said: “What we found when we compared the CTCs issued by INEC to the results on IReV is staggering. It appears INEC printed a duplicate set of result sheets to substitute the authentic ones.
“These duplicates carry the same serial numbers and other security marks, yet the IReV results are signed by party agents, while the CTCs are not.
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“One person sat down and forged these results. The findings shocked us. If this is what democracy has come to, then the implications are deeply disturbing,” he said.
Similar situation occurred in the Kogi gubernatorial election last year, Murtala Ajaka, the candidate of the Social Democratic Party candidate (SDP), and the main challenger to the APC candidate then, had said that the election in the central region witnessed irregularities, alleging that results were fabricated.
“In Okene Local Government, they turned out over 130,000 votes, haba! And INEC accepted that result, and what is on the BVAS is less than 30,000.
“If they don’t do a checklist and investigate their officials that went to Kogi State and allow this to stand, I doubt there will be an election in 2027,” he had said.
The conduct of the recent Ondo gubernatorial election where the ruling party won all the local government areas has raised concerns among observers and stakeholders about where the country’s democracy is headed.
The manipulation of election results by political actors and the troubling state of leading political parties, which has further weakened their capacity to compete against the ruling APC, has given rise to debates in recent days if the country was sliding into a one party state.
Speaking recently, after INEC declared Lucky Aiyedatiwa the winner of Ondo gubernatorial election, Abdullahi Ganduje, the APC’s national chairman, said that the party was now focusing on “capturing” Osun and Oyo State.
Ganduje’s comment attracted criticism among many Nigerians, with a lot of people wondering if the APC intend to scuttle democracy in the country.
“I think the game plan is to cripple the opposition ahead 2027, and you can see that they have a hand in crisis rocking the leading opposition parties.
“How can you make such comment, does the country belong to one person? Are you saying the will of voters in these two states does not matter? It tells you the kind of politicians we have now, what is happening now will only further discredit the electoral system,” Temitope Musowo, public policy analyst, said.
The expert further stated that the President should have called Ganduje to order because the comment was an indictment of the Bola Tinubu’s administration.
“In a sane society, the next day, the man would be told to resign. It is indictment that they don’t believe in electoral process and are out to manipulate people’s will,” he added.
Political analyst, Lara Akinde, said election results no longer count in Nigeria because of the desperation of few people to maintain the status quo. She said the county’s democracy was in real danger of sliding to anarchy, stressing that the country was presently where it was in the Second Republic before the military took over power.
“Obviously, we can’t conduct election in Nigeria, and it is because few people don’t want things to work. It is part of state capture we are talking about. These people are acting for their selfish interest; I fear for 2027; our democracy is in real danger,” Akinde said.
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