International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced global passenger traffic results for January 2018, showing traffic (revenue passenger kilometres or RPKs) rose 4.6 percent compared with January 2017.
This was the slowest year-over-year increase in nearly four years, but results were affected by temporary factors including the later timing of the Lunar New Year in 2018 as well as less favourable comparisons with the strong upward trend in traffic seen in late 2016 – early 2017.
IATA estimates the impact of the later Lunar New Year-related travel period holiday represented around two-fifths of the slowdown in year-over-year growth for the month. January capacity (available seat kilometres or ASKs) rose 5.3 percent, and load factor slipped half a percentage point to 79.6 percent.
“Despite the slower start, economic momentum is supporting rising passenger demand in 2018. That said, concerns over a possible trade war involving the US could have a serious dampening effect on global market confidence, spilling over into demand for air travel,” Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s director-general/CEO, said.
International passenger demand growth slowed to 4.4% in January, from 6.1% in December, with all regions recording growth, led by Latin America and Europe. Capacity rose 5.3% and load factor dipped 0.7 percentage point to 79.6%.
African airlines saw January traffic rise 4.9% against a mixed backdrop for the region’s largest economies. In Nigeria, business confidence has risen sharply while in South Africa, political uncertainly continues to inflict an economic toll. The region’s capacity rose 4.2%, and load factor edged up 0.5 percentage point to 70.3%.
European carriers’ international traffic climbed 6.0% in January compared to the year-ago period, up from 5.8% growth in December 2017. The region was the only one to see acceleration in traffic compared to the prior month. This is being supported by the buoyant economic conditions in the region. Capacity rose 5.0% and load factor was up 0.7 percentage point to 80.8%.
Middle East carriers had the weakest growth, with demand up just 0.5% compared to January 2017, the slowest pace since September 2008. The market to/from North America has been especially hard hit owing to factors including the temporary ban on large portable electronic devices as well as the proposed travel bans to the US from some countries in the region. Capacity climbed 4.6% and load factor fell 3.1 percentage points to 76.8%.
Domestic traffic climbed 5.1% in January year-on-year, down from 7% growth recorded in December. The slowdown is entirely attributable to the later Lunar New Year holiday period in 2018. All markets showed growth, led by India, which experienced its 41st consecutive month of double-digit traffic increases. Domestic capacity increased 5.3% and load factor slid 0.2 percentage point to 79.8%.
