The Nigerian power sector: A review of the Nigeria integrated resource plan (NIRP) part one

This article attempts to review the Nigerian Integrated Resource Plan 2024 (NIRP 2024), which can be described as the core technical component of the overall policy and planning framework for the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry (NESI). An integrated resource plan (IRP) is a comprehensive planning tool used by public utilities or power companies to meet short- to long-term electricity demand with emphasis on cost-effectiveness and environmental sustainability. The IRP framework was developed in the United States as a response by privately owned public electricity utilities to the oil crisis of the 1970s, which seriously impacted the cost of energy. The key objectives were minimising the cost of electricity supply and achieving energy efficiency and demand side management. It later became a national energy planning framework around the world, including key African countries like Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Ghana, Kenya and South Africa. The Nigeria Integrated Resource Plan was produced with enormous financial and technical support from the British Government through the United Kingdom Nigeria Infrastructure Advisory Facility (UKNIAF). A leading subnational in Nigeria has also prepared the Lagos State Integrated Resource Plan 2022.

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As UKNIAF states, “The IRP serves as this comprehensive plan by integrating various factors that impact electricity supply and delivery. It considers federal and state government regulations, expectations, and physical assets such as transmission lines, as well as customer demand. The IRP relies on specific data relevant to Nigeria and incorporates global best practices. It plays a crucial role in managing a just energy transition for the country.”

The preparation of the NIRP 2024 started in January 2022 after the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC), in recognition of the importance of an IRP as part of its strategic plan, approached UK Partnering for Accelerated Climate Transitions and UKNIAF for technical assistance, with the support of the Federal Ministry of Power (MoP), pursuant to fulfilling Nigeria’s post-COP26 Energy Transition Plan. Before the preparation of NIRP 2024, different arms of the Nigerian power sector, especially public sector institutions, operated in silos, not sharing data or adopting a unified approach. UKNIAF succeeded after much effort in bringing diverse stakeholders in the public and private sectors together, including MoP, NERC, the Federal Ministries of Environment, Federal Ministry of Finance, Federal Ministry of Budget and National Planning, Federal Ministry of Water Resources, Energy Commission of Nigeria, Niger Delta Power Holding Company, Rural Electrification Agency, Nigeria Electricity Management Services Agency, the Transmission Company of Nigeria, the Association of Nigeria Electricity Distributors, consumer groups and related civil society organisations (CSOs). This multi-stakeholder approach enabled the convergence of a common national approach and collective ownership in solving Nigeria’s perennial energy crisis.

“These are the issues that the Nigeria Integrated Resource Plan works on by developing a technical framework that provides a feasible pathway to realising our overall electricity aspirations in a least-cost and environmentally sustainable way.”

The National Integrated Electricity Policy (NIEP) provides the policy framework that determines the overall strategic direction of the Nigerian power sector, which seeks to deliver adequate and reliable power supply to Nigerians in a least-cost and sustainable way at a future date by addressing technical, infrastructural, financial and resource constraints. These are the issues that the Nigeria Integrated Resource Plan works on by developing a technical framework that provides a feasible pathway to realising our overall electricity aspirations in a least-cost and environmentally sustainable way.

The Nigeria Integrated Resource Plan 2024 defines an Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) as “a comprehensive approach to national power system planning that includes on the supply side a holistic assessment of national energy resources and on the demand side opportunities for energy efficiency to derive a least cost combination of supply and demand measures that further national objectives such as energy security and access, social equity, decarbonisation and environmental sustainability.”

The perennial energy or power supply crises Nigeria has had for decades and how to resolve them are perhaps the most important justifications for the Nigeria Integrated Resource Plan 2024. (While Nigeria, in over 60 years of political independence, has only recently, as of March 2, 2025, just hit 6000 megawatts (MW) of electricity, its African peers, South Africa and Egypt, generate ten times what we produce.) The NIRP is specifically mentioned in the Electricity Act 2023 as the planning tool to translate the policies of the National Integrated Electricity Policy 2025 into actionable targets, which the NIRP 2024 has undertaken through technical modelling and scenario building using advanced software applications. Thus, there is a close connection between the NIEP 2025, NIRP 2024 and the Strategic Implementation Plan (SIP), which is the implementation framework of the National Integrated Electricity Plan.

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A key objective of the NIRP is “reinforcing the national grid for secure, least-cost electricity.” The national grid is the weakest link of the Nigerian power sector due to decades of under-investment, poor management and inadequate technical know-how. Though Nigeria has a total installed power generation capacity of about 14,000 MW, the total wheeling capacity of the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) only recently attained 6003 MW. Nigeria’s total electricity demand, according to the African Development Bank (AfDB), is about 20,000 MW. Thus, the challenge of Nigeria’s IRP is bridging the roughly 14,000 MW demand gap. Demand side management is the driving force of integrated resource planning, and the key target of attention in Nigeria’s case is the transformation of our weak transmission infrastructure. The preparation of IRPs is heavily data-driven. One of the key constraints to preparing Nigeria’s IRP has been poor access to data, especially data from TCN. The Transmission Master Plan of TCN is expected to be ready sometime this year, which will be used for the preparation of a more comprehensive Nigeria Integrated Resource Plan. As the NIRP 2024 document aptly puts it, “It will only be possible to produce a comprehensive NIRP when the generation and transmission planning can be iteratively coordinated to converge on the overall least cost solution.” The NIRP is an organic document – a living, breathing technical and implementation guide that is amenable to updating even during the implementation process.

The NIRP 2024 is an elaborate and comprehensive technical document that cannot be done with sufficient justice in a brief analysis. One thing that stands out, however, is the challenge of a total revamp of the transmission sub-sector of the Nigerian power industry.

Mr Igbinoba is Team Lead/CEO at ProServe Options Consulting, Lagos