The Decade of Gas Initiative: A review

This article aims to review the Decade of Gas Initiative, a Federal Government of Nigeria gas development programme that was officially launched by President Muhammadu Buhari on March 29, 2021. The goal of the programme is to transform Nigeria into a gas powered-economy and an African gas power house by 2030, leveraging Nigeria’s vast natural gas reserves for power supply, industrialisation, domestic gas utilisation and exports. The article will be examining the programme, and progress made so far in realising set goals.

Nigeria recorded 210.54 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of natural gas reserves as of early 2025, which is the largest in Africa, ahead of Algeria, Mozambique and Egypt and 8th globally; but ranking 3rd in Africa in actual gas production behind Algeria (first ) and Egypt (second) and 19th globally. According to recent data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), Algeria produced 9.7 billion standard cubic feet per day (Bscfd), or 100.7 billion cubic meters per year; Egypt, 6.2 Bscfd (64. 8 Billion cubic meters per year); and Nigeria, 3.8 Bscfd (39.6 billion cubic meters per year). Globally, Qatar, a small Persian Gulf country with a population of 3.1 million people, ranks 6th in global gas production with about 16 Bscfd or roughly 179.5 billion cubic meters per year. These are very sobering statistics from Nigeria’s perspective as the country with the largest proven gas reserves in Africa and 8th globally; and informs the relevance of the Decade of Gas (DoG) Initiative and the heightened sense of urgency with which it should be implemented.

The following is a summary of the Decade of Gas (DoG) Initiative in Nigeria:

1. Gas infrastructure development: development of crucial gas infrastructure such as pipelines, gas processing facilities, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) plants to increase production, processing and development of gas across the country.

2. Policy reform and regulatory framework: reforms streamlining licensing procedures, improving fiscal incentives and enabling business environment/creating conducive investment and operational climate in the gas sector in order to attract and retain the required capital and expertise to realise the laudable goals of the Initiative.

3. Gas export: Nigeria intends to capitalise on the global demand for clean energy by expanding its capacity to produce and export liquefied natural gas (LNG) through existing platforms like the Nigeria Liquefied Natural Gas (NLNG) plant and the West Africa Gas Project (WAGP) and additional major LNG projects to be delivered through strategic partnerships with international investors to increase our share of the LNG market and generate additional foreign exchange from gas exports.

4. Gas to power: significantly expand gas utilization by providing feedstock to power Nigeria’s thermal plants.

5. Gas for homes: the plan is to significantly expand the adoption of clean energy in Nigerian homes in line with the energy transition programme and sustainable use of energy by increasing the use of natural gas for cooking, reduce reliance on traditional use of firewood and kerosene, thereby improving on air quality in our homes and reducing deforestation.
6. Gas to industry: stimulate industrial growth and job creation by the use of natural gas in powering industrialisation, thereby improving on the competitiveness of our manufacturers, attracting foreign investment inflows and reducing the levels of emissions in line with our 2060 net zero emission target.

7. Gas sector capacity targets: this involves massive investments to build, upgrade and enhance the capacities of manpower and institutions and manpower development infrastructure in the gas sector. The Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board (NCDMB) has a huge role to play in this regard as the flagship institution for content development and capacity building in the oil and gas sector along with the Petroleum Technology Development Fund (PTDF) and specialised oil and gas higher institutions of learning in Nigeria.

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The Initiative has four pillars: 1) Supply: expanding gas supply through new projects, unlocking reserves and increasing production; 2) Infrastructure: expanding critical infrastructure like the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK) and the Obiafu-Obrikom-Oben (OB3), processing plants and distribution networks to connect gas markets; 3) Pricing: supporting and instituting market-based pricing mechanisms to encourage investment flow to major gas projects and enthroning a corresponding fiscal framework; and 4) Utilization/Domestic Use: expanding and deepening domestic use of gas for industrialisation, power generation, transportation and domestic consumption.

Some of the more specific objectives include attracting up to US$30 billion into the gas sector during the period, including 70 new gas projects out of 200 that have been selected in the last 18 months and are expected to attract $20 billion; transition from an oil-based economy to a gas-based one; NCDMB has plans to trains 10,000 manpower for the oil and gas sector, with NLNG Train 7 which will be commissioned in 2026 expected to generate 12,0000 new jobs. On the whole the DoG Initiative does not seem to have a sufficient number of ambitious specific objectives, or deliverables or key performance indicators (KPIs).

Some of the achievements of the upstream oil and gas sector in the last 18 months include securing of US$8 billion in final investment decisions (FIDs) for oil and gas projects, including the Shell HI Field FID) of $2 billion for a shallow offshore gas project (OML 144) aimed at feeding NLNG; and Ubeta and Bonga North FIDs. The Ubeta gas project undertaken by TotalEnergies involves $500-$550 million with the aim of supplying 300 million cubic feet/day to NLNG. The Bonga North Deepwater Project involving Shell is a deepwater oil project with a value of $5 billion that will unlock 300 million barrels of oil and does not qualify as a Decade of Gas project. These are huge wins for the Tinubu Administration.

Nigeria has an uphill task closing the yawning gap between it and Algeria and Egypt in gas production. Algeria is aggressively moving ahead with plans to literally double its current gas production from about 10 Bscfd or 100-106 billion cubic meters (bcm) per year in 2025 to about 19.3 Bscfd or 200 billion cubic meters (bcm) per year by 2030. On September 4, 2025, Nigeria’s minister of finance and coordinating minister of the economy, Mr. Wale Edun, confirmed Nigeria’s plan to increase gas production to 10 bscfd by 2030. This will be transformative, but will still be half of Algeria’s 2030 gas production target.

We therefore need to double down on our gas production target by further expanding the scope of our ambition. One way that could be done is by reviving major suspended gas projects like the Bonny LNG project, Olokola LNG project and the $20 Ogidigben Gas City project which was largely a private sector initiative that seems to have been a victim of short-sighted geopolitics.

The strategic approach of the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu Administration in reviving the oil and gas sector through regulatory clarity and attractive fiscal incentives need to be commended. What this demonstrates is that the most potent resource a government has to develop the economy is informed and result-oriented, invariably market-friendly and investment-incentivising public policy. Add to that foresight and uncommon ambition to do the impossible and the economy will begin to hurtle down the fast lane of double-digit grown driven by a reconfigured ‘Nigerian gas economy.’

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed of Ethiopia on September 9, 2025 formally inaugurated the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), the largest in Africa with a generating capacity of 5,150 mw. Ethiopia has also recently embarked on the construction of the $10 billion Bishoftu International Airport near Adis Ababa, expected to be the largest in Africa when completed in 2029. How is it that Ethiopia with a population of 132 million people, 56 percent of our population of 237.5 million, and a gross domestic product (GDP) of $109.5 billion, 38 percent of Nigeria’s GDP of $285 billion, is making waves with landmark national development projects that set it apart from the African crowd, including Nigeria? The answer lies in uncommon leadership insight and ambitious, indeed, towering national development vision, along with disciplined execution. Nigeria must pick up the gauntlet, beginning with a Decade of Gas Initiative 2.0.

• Mr. Igbinoba is Team Lead/CEOs at ProServe Options Consulting, Lagos