Investments by the two leading LNG exporting countries toward 2030 and beyond

This article focuses on the liquefied natural gas (LNG) development and investment plans of the world’s two topmost LNG exporters, the United States of America (the U.S.) and the small but mighty Qatar. The third largest LNG exporter, Australia, is largely left out in this analysis because of its declining fortunes due to maturing gas fields and without any plans for major capacity expansion toward 2030 and beyond.

U.S. LNG exports surged to14.6 bcf/d in 2025 from 12 bcf/d in 2024. By the time all U.S. LNG export projects under construction are completed, its total LNG export capacity is expected to reach 26 bcf/d (266 bcma) or about 194 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) or 28.9 bcf/d, by 2030, depending on the source of information ; or 36.5 bcf/d (250 mtpa) by the mid-2030s, according to J.P. Morgan. This means that U.S. LNG exports will exceed that of its closest rival, Qatar by over 50 mtpa by 2030, which would be tremendous.

Qatar exported 10.53 bcf/d or 80 mtpa in 2025; and plans to increase its LNG export capacity to 142 mtpa by 2030, nearly doubling its current export capacity.

Australia overtook Qatar to become the leading LNG exporter in 2019, with 77.5 mtpa, holding the peak position for several years with record exports in 2020 and 2021, with its highest peak export of 80.9 mtpa. However, Australia’s LNG exports are facing challenges from maturing gas fields which have led to decline in exports beginning from 2023. Its LNG exports slipped by 2.8% in 2025, from 67.7 mtpa in 2024 to 65.8 Mtpa, compounded by scheduled maintenance in four key LNG export terminals. Australia’s plan toward 2030 is focused on extending the life span of its existing gas production infrastructure rather than investing in new LNG plants. To this end, Northwest Shelf LNG plant, Australia’s largest gas plant, has received approval to extend its lifespan from its initial planned closure in 2030 to 2070.

Major U.S. LNG export terminals (LNG processing plants plus export jetties and related port pipelines) under construction situated along the Gulf Coast include Venture Global CP2 (Phase 1) located in Louisiana, expected to come on stream in 2027; Golden Pass LNG (Train1-3) being jointly developed by ExxonMobil and QatarEnergy in Texas, with Phase 1 expected to be completed by 2026/2027; Venture Global’s Plaquemines LNG (Phase 1 and 2) slated for completion in 2025/2026; Corpus Christi Stage3 (Trains 8 &9) in Texas promoted by Cheniere, which is billed for commissioning in 2028; Rio Grande LNG (Phase 1) in Brownsville, Texas, a 4.5 bcf/d (approximately 34.4 mtpa) capacity plant promoted by NextDecade, expected to be delivered in 2026-2028; and Louisiana LNG Phase 1, promoted by Woodside Energy, expected to be completed by 2029.

Related key pipeline infrastructure projects meant to support soaring export volumes are in development to link Permian basin in western Texas and far-southern New Mexico; and Haynesville basin in Texas and Louisiana, major regions for oil and gas in the U.S., to Gulf Coast terminals. Key projects targeting commissioning between 2025 and 2028 include the 4.5 bcf/d Rio Bravo and 2.5 Bcf/d Blackcomb pipelines, along with the Trident 2.0 bcf/d and Eiger 2.5 bcf/d pipelines targeted at boosting capacity in Texas and Louisiana.

Key investment banks leading LNG development in the United States include JP Morgan, Bank of America, Citi, Barclays, Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo. International banks including Mizuho, MUFG, SMBC, Santander and Standard Chartered are also heavily involved in financing LNG projects in the United States.

The rapid development of LNG projects in the U.S. that has enabled American gas exporters gain dominance in the global LNG market in six short years is due largely to the enormous availability of funds in the American capital market. In 2024 alone, banks provided $429 billion to finance fossil fuel developments, much of it going to financing gas projects. For example, Venture Global CP2 secured a total of about $24 billion in2025 for the development of its Phases 1 and 2 LNG projects. While a global official sum of investment is difficult to estimate due to project shifts, total estimates will be in tens of billions of dollars, with single major LNG projects costing between $20 and $30 billion.

Similarly, major investment banks are heavily involved in financing Qatar’s massive North Field LNG expansion project, considered the world’s single largest LNG project, with Qatar National Bank (QNB) leading the transactions alongside international financial institutions and export credit agencies expected to provide funding to realise Qatar’s gas ambition and boosting export revenue significantly by 2027, in line with the country’s Vision 2030. The North Field South expansion segment, involved an engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract of $10 billion, with investment banks providing financing for related infrastructure projects valued at hundreds of millions of dollars, as Qatar transitions to an investment-led economy as opposed to a largely public sector funded economy. However, most of the funds for Qatar’s massive LNG capacity expansion toward 2030 and beyond come from internal cash reserves and operational revenues generated by the state-owned company, QatarEnergy. Qatar’s extremely low gas production costs and high-volume sales make QatarEnergy’s operations highly profitable, putting it in the position to fund most of the multi-billion dollar LNG expansion projects, complemented by international large-scale dollar-denominated financing. Furthermore, QatarEnergy has sold minority interests to major international oil companies (IOCs), including TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil, Shell, ConocoPhillips, and Eni to share the investment costs and technical knowhow. Also, QatarEnergy raised about $12.5 billion dollars from the international bond market to finance its LNG expansion programme. Analysts also point out that the substantial revenue QatarEnergy generates from associated liquids like liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), condensates, and helium helps to finance its LNG expansion programmes. On the whole, Qatar’s plan to literally double LNG production capacity and exports from 77 mpta or about 80 mtpa to 142 mtpa by 2030 is estimated to cost about $83 billion, with the largest ship building programme in history adding to the total project cost.

We can see the LNG capacity expansion strategy of the U.S., the most private-sector driven economy in the world, being different from that of Qatar with a largely public sector owned gas sector. Both countries have been able to leverage on the distinctive strengths of their gas sectors and economies, which in the case of the U.S. are the abundant availability of cheap shale gas, a highly developed entrepreneurial economy, cutting edge oil and gas technology, and the most advanced capital market in the world to develop LNG production and export capacity at an unprecedented speed. On the other hand, Qatar has demonstrated that public ownership of oil and gas assets can be efficiently run and developed to global standard and gain global leadership in gas production and export.

The lessons for Nigeria include looking at the American model by bringing together a community of gas investors and exporters to take the LNG sector in Nigeria to the next level. While some investors will focus on LNG/FLNG plants/terminals, others will zero in on investing in and providing gas pipeline infrastructure from gas fields. The Nigerian capital market and tier-1 banks with their enhanced capital base will have to learn to structure gas infrastructure financing models that will in collaboration with international financial institutions enable the financing of big ticket gas development and gas export projects in Nigeria. It is time for gas development andexport in Nigeria to transition from being largely public-sector-led to being largely private-sector-led.

• Mr. Igbinoba is Team Lead/CEO at ProServe Options Consulting, Lagos