KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia — An electoral tsunami swept away Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak, ending 60 years of rule by the United Malays National Organization. The outcome was welcomed at home as well as abroad; it was viewed as a democratic system asserting itself against corruption and perhaps presaging the decline of race-based politics.
Enthusiasm, though, is tempered by questions about the new ruling government — a disparate four-party coalition headed by 92-year-old former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, a former physician with a limited record of compromise. Will the coalition hold? Will it attack corruption generally or focus on the ousted government? Will economic policies be populist or pragmatic? Will racial and religious harmony improve? Will foreign policy, particularly toward China, change?
The tsunami resulted from a mixture of factors, including Mohamad’s personal appeal; economic grievances expressed by Malay, Chinese, Indian and other racial groups; a desire for more inclusive politics particularly among urban Malays; and resentment of the UMNO leadership’s greed and arrogance. Any of these elements could guide the future. Race- and religion-based politics remains alive and are represented by Mohamad himself as the creator of the Malay Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia, a breakaway from the UMNO he led for two decades. Although his party has only 12 of the coalition’s 113 seats, Mohamad’s personality dominates for now.
The coalition’s cohesion and durability will be determined in large part by relations between Mohamad and his former deputy, Anwar Ibrahim. The party Ibrahim founded, Parti Keadilan Rakyat, or PKR, won the largest number of coalition seats and is currently led by his wife. The king pardoned Ibrahim, who was recently released from jail after being found guilty of dubious charges of sodomy. Ibrahim will not return directly to politics in the short term, stating he is content for Mohamad to lead so long as the government prioritizes reform issues, including corruption and the administration of justice.
Mohamad has promised to pass leadership on within two years — a long time in Malaysia’s now volatile politics — and Ibrahim and his team may try to bring their policies to bear soon. In principle, the PKR should be able to work with the second largest party, the Democratic Action Party, which is predominantly Chinese. But PKR must also protect its position among the Malays as well as a potential UMNO revival. PKR may have to contend with policies favoring majority Malays who are overwhelmingly Muslim, while non-Malay expectations of a shift away from racial preferences must also be met. Growing social and educational divides and religious intolerance require reversal.
The racial question relates directly to an economy held back by an exodus of capital and talent caused by preferential treatment. In turn, government spending financed by borrowing has boosted economic growth. The pattern could continue, at least in the short term, as the government has already fulfilled a promise to abolish the unpopular goods and services tax. Addressing this problem now falls to leader of the Democratic Action Party, Lim Guan Eng, though he must first face corruption charges brought by the ousted government. As a successful chief minister of Penang state, Lim is well regarded by the business community as a reassuring figure. He must also fend off pressure for more spending and replace lost revenues.
Current high oil prices will help, and so may new scrutiny of huge infrastructure projects, including rail and port projects financed by massive Chinese loans as part of the “Belt and Road” program. However, critics have accused Razak of kowtowing to China.
Infrastructure projects provide fat contracts for some local firms. Others complain that China’s state companies get the bulk of benefits and that they import Chinese workers. While the money is welcome, some Malays express concern about an influx of migrants. More generally, Malaysia wonders whether, as a capital surplus country, it should rely on foreign money for projects like housing, for which foreign technology is not needed.
Malaysian Chinese also have mixed feelings about China’s rise and its “Belt and Road” projects. The economic spur offers a potential antidote to “bumiputra” policy of giving preference to ethnic Malays, but the display of wealth and power stirs Malay resentment. The new government will likely continue welcoming Chinese money while being more discriminating.
Suspicions of China are unlikely to have much impact on foreign policy. Although Malaysia’s maritime area comes well within China’s claims in the South China Sea, the government has kept a low profile. China, while taking military action against Vietnam and the Philippines, has left Malaysia alone. This will not change so long as the Philippines remains supine in the face of Chinese encroachment, and the Trump administration continues to undermine regional confidence in the United States.
Waters subject to Chinese claims are off the east Malaysian states, Sabah and Sarawak. Neither is predominantly Malay, and Sarawak does not have a Muslim majority. The election showed a sharp rise in the appeal of parties demanding more local autonomy and a fair share of state resources. Once in the UMNO pocket, they may flex their muscles.
Malaysia’s neighbors have varying perspectives. Singapore had good relations with and is wary of Mohamad, but was well aware of corruption’s threat to Malaysia. Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong will be the first foreign leader to meet Mohamad as prime minister. Singapore may worry about the new government’s stability, but it hopes for a more balanced ethnic composition.
Thailand’s ruling generals may see Malaysia as reason to delay long-promised elections. Mass discontent can overwhelm even the stoutest constitutional barriers to free and fair democracy. Alternatively, they may assume that an early election could cement their power before the opposition gains momentum. Hopes for a return to the rule of law and judicial independence in Malaysia were well-received in the Philippines by critics of President Rodrigo Duterte.
Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo, facing an election in 2019, may feel most comforted. His personal popularity may be overwhelmed by big-money backed opponents mobilizing Islamic and anti-Chinese sentiment. But Malaysia has shown that such tactics may not work and that anti-corruption efforts win votes.
UMNO’s fall may lead to fundamental changes in the structure of politics, a revival of state institutions or reshuffling of the party pack. Much depends on harmony between Mohamad and Ibrahim, which in turn hinges on whether Mohamad acknowledges that seeds of corruption and abuse of the judicial system were sowed during his previous premiership. The new coalition’s name, Pakatan Harapan — Alliance of Hope — sums up popular expectations that the electoral tsunami sweeps away not just UMNO leadership but systemic sleaze.
