Pipeline protection powers Nigeria’s oil production boom

Nigeria’s recovery in oil production in the last four months, linked to improved pipeline security and reduced disruptions across the Niger Delta, has seen the country’s crude output climb to its highest level in six years as operators enjoy longer production uptime and smoother crude evacuation.

Latest figures released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) show that Nigeria’s combined crude oil and condensate production rose to an average of 1.74 million barrels per day (bpd) in June, extending a four-month streak of production growth and underscoring the impact of improved security around critical oil infrastructure.

According to the commission, the increase was driven by stable production operations across major producing assets and the absence of significant pipeline outages during the review period.

The development marks a major turnaround for an industry that only a few years ago was losing hundreds of thousands of barrels daily to crude theft, pipeline vandalism and illegal refining activities.

This development further indicates the effectiveness of the Nigerian security architecture and Tantita Security Services Nigeria Ltd (TSSNL) operations in safeguarding national infrastructure, especially oil pipelines, to support forex inflows and the economy.

The rise in Nigeria’s crude oil and condensate production in June was a result of several factors. But a significant factor raised by the NUPRC was the peace and stability in the Niger Delta that guaranteed oil pipeline protection. The Tantita operations supported improved oil production uptime and crude evacuation efficiency.

Over several months of the conflict between Iran, the US and Israel, Nigeria has benefited from the rising oil prices in the period, which rose to as much as $120 per barrel at one point.

The commodity, which accounts for over 70 percent of the country’s revenue, has traded at above the $64.85 per barrel price benchmark set by the government in the 2026 budget.

According to available figures, the earnings are estimated at $17.78 billion in gross oil revenue between February and May 2026, translating to an excess of $6.51 billion in revenue income.

According to the new NUPRC crude statistics, crude oil production hit 1.56 million bpd. The report showed that 0.18 million bpd of condensates were produced. This means Nigeria met 104 percent of the 1.5 million bpd crude oil production quota set by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

The report showed that in strict crude oil terms (excluding condensates), the 1.56 million daily average production Nigeria witnessed in June is the highest that Africa’s biggest oil producer has recorded since April 2020. This, it said, represented a 74-month high.

The report stated, “In June, the peak combined crude oil and condensate production was 1.89 million bpd, reflecting Nigeria’s potential to reach 2 million bpd in the near term.

“However, the lowest production was 1.57 million bpd for the period in review. The statistics show that Nigeria has maintained an upward trajectory, increasing from 1.483 million bpd in February to 1.546 million bpd in March, 1.663 million bpd in April, 1.700 million bpd in May, and 1.735 million bpd in June.

“This represents a 2.2 percent growth month on month.” The report said the improved performance was primarily driven by stable production operations across most producing assets and the absence of any major pipeline outages during the period under review.

It said the enhanced operational stability supported improved production uptime and crude evacuation efficiency. It said though a limited number of assets experienced short-duration operational shutdowns, the overall impact on national production was minimal.

“In addition, scheduled turnaround maintenance activities were effectively managed and completed without significant disruption to production operations.

“The sustained growth recorded in June reflects the continued commitment of operators and industry stakeholders towards improving operational efficiency, maintaining asset integrity, and enhancing production reliability across the Nigerian upstream petroleum sector.

“A breakdown of the daily average crude oil and condensate production by terminals/streams during the review month shows that Bonny Terminal accounted for 318.28 kbpd, up from 293.88 kbpd recorded in May 2026.

“Forcados Terminal followed with 306.36 kbpd, an increase from 289.90 kbpd in May 2026,” it stated.

The report showed that Qua Iboe Terminal recorded an average production of 164.73 kbpd of crude oil and condensates, down from 173.36 kbpd in May 2026.

It further revealed that Escravos Oil Terminal posted a daily average of 138.03 kbpd, up from 135.47 kbpd recorded in May 2026.

According to the report, Bonga ranked as the fifth-highest producing terminal, recording an average of 103.66 kbpd of crude oil, compared to 102.54 kbpd delivered in May 2023.

Speaking on the drop in oil prices, Muda Yusuf, who is also the Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), noted that there is also a flip side to the price reduction for Nigeria.

“The flip side for Nigeria’s revenue is going to be negative because for all producing countries that were not caught up in this Middle East or Strait of Hormuz problem, who have been benefiting from the windfall, of course, this will mean that the windfall will disappear. And earnings from crude oil will also affect revenue negatively.

“So we are likely to see a reduction in our oil revenue arising from this deal or the likely drop in crude oil price. It’s a no-brainer. The revenue will drop, and of course it means that there are some benefits and some demerits,” Yusuf submitted.

What it means for FX inflows

Aminu Gwadabe, President, Association of Bureaux De Change Operators of Nigeria (ABCON), said increased oil production means a bigger petrodollar windfall for Nigeria.

He said increased FX inflows will support Nigeria’s economic growth and development agenda.

Also, Nigeria’s 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook projected that Nigeria’s external reserve would rise to $51.04 billion in 2026, supported by stronger oil earnings, foreign exchange (FX) market reforms, and improved external inflows.

The outlook reflects higher oil revenues, increased bond issuance, sustained diaspora remittances, FX market reforms, and expanded domestic refining capacity.

Effectively harnessing the oil revenue requires that the Niger Delta, a region severally described as the goose that lays the golden eggs, must also be at peace, and the oil infrastructure across the region must be well secured.

That is where the Federal Government of Nigeria’s appointment of Tantita Security Services Nigeria Ltd (TSSNL) to protect oil assets and ensure peace and stability in the Niger Delta comes into play.

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu had appointed Tantita Security Services Nigeria Limited (TSSNL), led by Government Oweizide Ekpemupolo, alias Tompolo, to protect Nigeria’s oil assets in the Niger Delta region.

The appointment was to enable TSSNL, through its security operations, to support the national economy in getting the full benefits of oil resources.

The TSSNL works in collaboration with other security outfits to achieve its goals of securing oil assets and ensuring peace and stability in the Niger Delta region.

Tantita’s operations have ensured the security of oil pipelines, ensuring the uninterrupted flow of petroleum resources and ensuring that Nigeria migrated from a position of constant loss management to stability, planning, growth and development.

The TSSNL operations have transformed the oil and gas landscape and allowed Nigeria to expand its oil production quota and significantly cut rampant oil theft.

Its track record in mitigating risks associated with oil pipelines has positioned it as a reliable partner in preserving Nigeria’s economic backbone.

As stakeholders advocate for continued collaboration with TSSNL, the imperative of securing oil infrastructure remains at the forefront of efforts to ensure the nation’s sustainable development.

In the development process of any society, certain assets contribute to the advancement of society and its people. These assets ensure economic or monetary benefits for the people. These assets could be regarded as operating assets, non-operating assets or leased assets, among others.

The impact of TSSNL’s operations was captured in a recent survey, with the majority of the respondents attributing the de-escalation of security incidents in the Niger-Delta region to the pipeline surveillance operations executed by TSSNL.

As captured in the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project (ACLED), violent events declined by 20.9 percent in the South-South geopolitical region between 2023 and 2025. The rate of fatalities arising from such violent events in the oil-rich region declined by 8.3 percent within the same period of time.

Although the rate of similar conflicts declined by a higher margin of 26.9 percent in the South-East region, the rate of fatalities resulting from such events increased within the region by 8.3 percent.

The violent events tracked by ACLED within the period under review include violence against civilians, battles between the authorities and armed groups, protests, strategic developments, riots, and explosions/remote violence.

The South West recorded a decline of 14.1 percent in the total number of incidents between 2023 and 2025. However, the fatality rate increased by 12.21 percent. The picture takes a different look in the three geopolitical regions of Northern Nigeria.

Further analysis of the database showed that North-West incidents increased by 127.9 percent between 2023 and 2025 and, in the process, recorded an increase of 99.1 percent in the fatality rate.

Impact of Middle East crisis on global economies

The World Bank Group expressed its readiness to provide up to $100 billion for countries affected by the Middle East crisis. The fund will be delivered in the next 15 months to the beneficiary countries.

“The conflict has taken a toll on global activity, but every crisis also brings an opportunity,” said Ayhan Kose, the World Bank Group’s deputy chief economist and director of the Prospects Group.

“This moment should be used to strengthen policy frameworks, invest in infrastructure, accelerate business-enabling reforms, and mobilise private capital to support job creation at scale.”

The bank reiterated its commitment to supporting all developing countries as they confront crises. In response to the conflict in the Middle East, it is immediately making up to $50–60 billion available through existing instruments, including $25 billion of pre-arranged financing.

This can support social safety nets for the most vulnerable people, boost fiscal capacity, and provide working capital and liquidity support for firms and farms.

“Developing countries have faced a series of challenges over the last decade,” said Ajay Banga, president of the World Bank Group.

He further said, “The impact differs by country, but the basic test is the same: protect people and preserve stability today, without giving up on growth and jobs tomorrow.

“In response to the current shock, we are providing liquidity where it is needed now, and we are ready with additional financing, guarantees, and private-sector solutions if pressures deepen. Our job is to help countries steady the ship, keep reforms moving, and emerge stronger on the other side.”

According to the report, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has severely disrupted energy markets, with Brent crude oil prices projected to average $94 a barrel in 2026, 36 percent above 2025 levels, assuming the worst disruptions abate in July.

Fertiliser prices are forecast to increase significantly this year, with knock-on effects for food prices. Together, these pressures are pushing up global inflation, which is expected to rise to four percent this year, up substantially from 3.3 percent in 2025.