The thought of Nigeria entering another recession shortly after a recent one is truly freighting to say the least.
But, considering the worsening picture of the economy amid many negative indices, exacerbated by Covid-19 pandemic, Nigeria is obviously near economic collapse, a sad reality that worries the populace, especially many economic stakeholders.
Again, the apprehension is heightened by the very dismal rankings of the most populous West African nation in many economic indices and other global standards used in measuring development, particularly Human Development Index (HDI).
From high level of insecurity, huge infrastructure deficit, struggling foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and to poor GDP growth at 2.7 percent against population growth at 3.5 percent, high external debt profile of over $27 billion, 27.1 percent unemployment rate to inflation, which stands at over 13 percent, among others, the odds are against Nigeria.
Moreover, over 93 million Nigerians are not connected to electricity, while the country holds the record for extreme poor people in the world, according to the World Poverty Clock report published in 2018.
The report further revealed that over 86.9 million Nigerians live in extreme poverty; a figure that represents about 48 percent of the country’s estimated 200 million population. The most frightening fact about the report is that six Nigerians enter poverty bracket every minute, a figure that has increased since two years the report was released.
As well, with 15 million children out of school, Nigeria has the highest number of out-of-school children globally, while infant and under 5 years mortality rate, according statistics, is high in Nigeria.
Again, insecurity has stripped the country the little respect it has in the international community.
Nigeria is regarded as the third most terrorised country in the world after Afganistan and Iraq and, according to Peter Obi, former governor of Anambra State, who spoke at University of Nigeria Nsukka (UNN) 60 years lecture recently, saying it is speculated that Nigeria would soon overtake the two countries in terrorism.
Also, inequality is high in Nigeria as less than 1 percent of the population controls over 90 percent of the nation’s wealth. “Inequality impacts negatively on health, education and the economy, but government is incapable of fighting it,” Peter Obi said.
These statistics are enough to cause anxiety considering that Nigeria had fallen deeply from its annual GDP growth rate of 25 percent in 1970s with FDI inflows now accounting for 0.5 percent of the GDP, and food exports, which accounted for 31.34 percent in 1970s, have crashed to 1.95 percent in 2018.
Olusegun Obasanjo, former president of Nigeria, who has shown interest in the wellbeing of the nation since he left office in 2007, after eight years administration of Nigeria’s economy, has consistently expressed worry on the fast drifting economy. He usually makes his intentions known through personal letters to the successive presidents.
In a recent comment, Obasanjo expressed worry that Nigeria was slowly becoming a failed state. Many Nigerians agree with this view as statistics correspond with the statement.
“Today, Nigeria is fast drifting to a failed and badly divided state, economically our country is becoming a basket case and poverty capital of the world, and socially, we are firming up as an unwholesome and insecure country. And these manifestations are the products of recent mismanagement of diversity and socio-economic development of our country,” Obasanjo said.
Speaking while delivering a speech titled, “Moving Nigeria away from tipping over” at a consultative dialogue in Abuja recently, the former president said he had never seen Nigeria so divided, adding that many of the problems plaguing the country were due to the recent mismanagement of Nigeria’s diversity.
Some socio-political groups such as Afenifere and Ohaneze and other top Nigerians also backed Obasanjo, as Wole Soyinka, a professor and Nobel Laureate, regretted that the country was close to extinction.
“We are close to extinction as a viable comity of people, supposedly bound together under an equitable set of protocols of co-habitation, capable of producing its own means of existence, and devoid of a culture of sectarian privilege and will to dominate,” Soyinka said in a report.
Assessing the pathetic condition of the economy, Tunde Lemo, former deputy governor of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), who also spoke at the University of Nigeria’s Founders’ Day, said at Nigeria’s Independence in 1960, that there were high hopes given the abundance of natural and human resources that we had as a nation with economic indices better than many countries.
The general believe was that in less than no time, the newly independent country would not only lead Africa, but the entire black race.
“Unfortunately, 60 years on, we do not have much to show for it as a nation. Nigeria is today more divided as a country than in 1960. We have unfortunately become the poverty capital of the world with more number of extremely poor people than in India and under-employment at over 30 percent.
“We have filtered away as much as N3.3 trillion in oil revenue in the past 50 years with not much to show for it other than fractured infrastructure, epileptic power supply and a whopping national debt of over $28 billion. Insecurity has gone worse as never before,” Lemo said.
It is fashionable in the past to blame the woes of this country on the military regime engagement, he said. That argument is no longer tenable because the cumulative engagement of the civilian administration now accounts for 52 percent of the 60 years of our post-Independence era while the military accounts for 48 percent. We now have over 21 years of civilian rule and we should by now wean ourselves over from the hangover of military interruption, he said.
The Catholic Bishops’ Conference of Nigeria (CBCN) recently raised alarm over the current state of affairs in Nigeria, saying the African populous country was almost at the verge of collapse.
Most Reverend Augustine Obiora Akubeze, president of the CBCN, who, according to a report addressed all the faithful of the Church in the country, and other Nigerians, on behalf of the Bishops’ Conference during Nigeria’s 60 years anniversary, lamented that after years of existence as an independent nation, Nigeria had nothing to show for it, especially in the area of making life worth living for majority of Nigerians.
He added that many Nigerians cannot afford to eat amid plenty of natural resources and human endowments, while the Covid-19 pandemic had further crippled the already poor Nigerian economy.
Buttressing this point, Obi said there was nothing else Nigeria was celebrating about apart from being alive as a nation.
Nigeria needs to take very difficult, but inevitable decisions to build the country with lessons from Covid-19 as it cannot go on the same way again, Obi said. “We must invest in education and this must be well articulated. We must move from a consumption economy to a productive economy. The consequence of high consumption and corruption is that we may not have a country soon.
“Nigeria must support MSMEs for economic growth in terms of grants and cheap loans towards reducing poverty. Nigerian economy must be private sector led for efficient management. The high cost of governance in Nigeria is unacceptable and criminal,” he said.
In his message during the Nigeria’s 60 years anniversary, Matthew Hassan Kukah, the Catholic Bishop of Sokoto Diocese, declared that only people with vision and tested character can lead the country alright.
“Journeys to greatness require more than just good people, more than just good will, and more than just hope. Those journeys have to be led by men and women with vision and tested character prepared to mobilise their people towards the attainment of a goal,” he said in a report.
