Though the real estate sector of the Nigerian economy remains in recession long after the wider economy exited a crippling 15-month recession, the sector still offers pockets of opportunities to investors and these could be located in four frontline destinations, BusinessDay checks have shown.
The segments of the market or destinations that investors can invest in and reap profitably are the short-let apartments, student housing, co-working spaces and small-sized multi-family units apartments.
The country’s real estate market is estimated at N4.7 trillion with a yearly demand of 1 million housing units while only an estimated 100,000 units are supplied, meaning that opportunities are there driven by strong fundamentals.
Experts note that demographics and consumer purchasing power are strong, but people-issue or population is stronger. Nigeria has a large number of people who are very aspirational. The median age here is estimated at 19 years while the average age is 27.
This means that the country has about 75 million people between the age of 16 and 27, implying that the future is bright because all these people have to live, work, eat and play; they also have to go to school and hospital somewhere and real estate envelopes all these and provision has to be made for them.
Short-let apartments in Lagos, Port Harcourt and Abuja have grown in popularity.
“This growth is partly driven by the tepid return of expatriate technicians and the influence of Airbnb,” Ayo Ibaru, a director at Northcourt Real Estate, said, explaining that Nigeria has become the fastest growing market in Africa for Airbnb.
Airbnb is a platform that allows property owners earn income on their residential assets, and it has been growing by over 200 percent in the last five years.
To meet the growing demand in this segment of the market, landlords in prime locations are converting their assets to this use and are enjoying occupancy rates higher than standard residential building.
The vacancy factor in the prime residential market has been quite high in recent time, owing to landlords’ insistence on old prices and rents. The vacancy rates in the standard residential apartments have hovered around their H2 2018 figures with Ikoyi recording 30 percent, Ikeja GRA 26 percent, and Oniru 33 percent among the highest.
Figures from a Northcourt’s outlook report for 2019 shows that GRAs 1, 2 and 3 in Port Harcourt recorded vacancy rates of 6 percent, 11 percent and 20 percent, respectively, and continue to show potential principally for their security advantages when compared to most parts of the city.
Co-working space is coming up thick and investment opportunity here is huge. Demand, which is driven mostly by milliennials and start-up community, is growing exponentially. This is despite Grade A office vacancy rates which remain high with existing 400,000 square metres stock of office space and over 40,000 square metres expected in the market in the new year.
“Millennials and the startup community continue to drive up the demand for co-working spaces with service providers seeking to convince traditional large-scale employers of the benefits of co-working just as corporates are in conversations geared towards putting up underutilised space for coworking use,” Ibaru said.
Student housing is an emerging investment frontier that guarantees investors high yields and stable cash-flow.
“This investment asset gives about 22 percent returns which is more than double what commercial real estate gives, not to talk of residential real estate which gives 4-5 percent returns per annum. For this reason, we are encouraging other developers to come in,” Abayomi Onasanya, founder/CEO, Student Accommod8, told BusinessDay in an interview in Lagos recently.
Munachi Okoye, CEO, MCO Real Estate, affirms, explaining that demand for this asset class is chiefly driven by the widening gap between a growing student population and little or no accommodation supply, especially in public schools.
“The ability to sign a long lease on land belonging to a higher institution or acquiring land adjoining a higher institution, building and charging a ready pool of student off-takers a market rent with 100 percent occupancies leading to a stable cash-flow is a real estate developer’s dream,” he noted.
The increase in student population is a reflection of the national population growth which, as at October 31, 2018, according to United Nations estimates, was 197.4 million – an equivalent of 2.5 percent of the total world population. The country’s annual growth rate is estimated at 2.6 percent.
Another profitable area for investors is the small-size apartments including studio, one-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments. Market research shows that demand here is huge but supply is small.
“This is one area of housing where there is a huge gap which is not being addressed. Over 60 percent of people who are looking for houses to rent today are not looking for 3 or 4-bedroom apartments, but 1 and 2-bedroom,” MKO Balogun, CEO, Global PFI, said in an interview.
The demand in this sub-market is such that any available supply is taken up within one month of entering the market. Periwinkles Investment’s Oxygen Apartments, comprising mainly 2-bedroom, sold out in two weeks of launching into the market.
African Capital Alliance is developing over 600-unit Blue Water Lagos in collaboration with Elalan Construction. The first phase of the development comprising 119 apartments is almost 40 percent sold out still at topping out stage.
CHUKA UROKO
