Politicians and institutions to watch this year

Muhmmadu Buhari

President Muhammadu Buhari will continue to make news headlines this year. He is one of the prominent Nigerian politicians to watch this year. His ability or otherwise to steer the ship of government to the right direction will earn him positive newspaper headlines. Buhari’s efforts at governance in the last 19 months have been everything but sterling. His campaign promises have not been redeemed and implementation of people-oriented policies has not been at par with the expectation of the people.

Although he appears to carry on as if he is not bothered by the observation of critics that he has allowed a cabal to hijack government, this year, he may be jolted by some sudden happenings within the party, which would indicate to him that his chances at re-election may be slim. He may decide to pull a surprise this year by radically implementing policies that could positively affect the people, however, an oil guru flatly told BDSUNDAY recently that no one should expect a radical change from Abuja as “those guys there are not radicals.”

Yemi Osinbajo

Vice President Yemi Osinbajo is a cleric in the corridors of power. He is not a real politician, but happened to be in the field of politics on the wings of a godfather. Days and months ahead this year will prove his ruggedness in the game of politics. Analysts had last year hinted of some subterranean moves to sideline him or some kind of rifts somewhere. He will very much be in the news this year, particularly when the flame of alignment and re-alignment of forces begin to burn hot ahead of 2019. The question that may be answered by him at some point this year is whether he is still loyal to his godfather or has shifted his loyalty to his boss. Again, as the coordinator of the economy, a lot depends on him this year, especially as Nigerians anxiously await government’s magic wand to get things on the right track. He will be presiding over meetings and events that would put him in the news.

Bola Ahmed Tinubu

Bola Ahmed Tinubu, a former governor of Lagos State and national leader of the All Progressives Congress (APC), will be very much in the news this year. The APC is expected to go through a lot of restructuring as some aggrieved members may decide to opt out. What Tinubu does and what he fails to do in the midst of the expected alignment and re-alignment of forces will occupy important news holes in various media. Though Tinubu and Buhari’s men have been busy denying the obvious gulf existing between Bourdillon and Aso Villa, this year will prove the authenticity of that claim. Tinubu’s name has severally been mentioned as one of the unseen hands n the emerging mega party that is being proposed.

Already, many of his supporters from the South West are not happy over the alleged relegation of the Asiwaju and it was against this backdrop that a rally was held in Lagos in November in solidarity with him. It was also alleged that some of those who rode on his back to Abuja have abandoned him and had declared their fidelity to the President. This year promises to be very decisive for Tinubu and the media will surely have good stories around the Jagaban that could move their business.

Atiku Abubakar

This Adamawa State-born politician is very restless. He was very vibrant all through 2016, and from the look of things he is not slowing down. Atiku’s eye is still on the presidency. Those who followed his activities last year could see a man that has been building bridges across the country. He moved fromNnorth-east to North-west; he traversed the north central, south west, south east and south-south preaching the message of peace, unity and the need to re-organise Nigeria. He is very ambitious like any other politician. The Director of if his media office, Paul Ibe, told BDSUNDAY in Yola, Adamawa State, recently that those who accuse Atiku of being ambitious are hypocrites. This year, as the 2019 draws nearer, the former vice president is expected to be more visible. He is being associated with some moves by some political practitioners to float a mega party that would grab power in 2019. Despite rebutals by his media office, the insinuation has stuck. In the course of this year, the Turaki Adamawa’s moves will become clearer and would not leave anyone in doubt what his motives are.

Olusegun Obasanjo

Former President Olusegun Obasanjo has become an institution on his own. Politicians ignore him to their own hurt. When he turns his back at any politician or party, mischief is determined against that individual or organisation. His patience wanes so fast. He may declare support for you in the morning, by afternoon, he has dusted you and moves on with another individual that has caught his fancy. Those who know this side of him say you can find out from the late Chuba Okadigbo. At a point he was a sworn enemy of Bola Tinubu, and at another point he turned 360degrees and became Jagaban’s closest ally and confidant.

This was why he decided to sink Goodluck Jonathan, an innocent riverine boy in whom he was well pleased some years ago and preferred him to Peter Odili as a running mate to the late Umaru Yar’Adua in 2007. When Obasanjo had enough of PDP, he made an open show of tearing his party’s membership card. He shifted his support for the APC and Buhari. But he has since resumed his caustic criticism of the man in Aso Rock and he is not amused by the level of poverty in the country. Maybe, to close Baba’s mouth, an exotic car has reportedly been booked for him. But if we know the man well, he will talk louder this year except Abuja awakes from its slumber. His fortress somewhere in Ota, Abeokuta, Ogun State will attract all manner of politicians who believe that a visit to him guarantee them electoral success.

Bukola Saraki

The current president of the Senate, Bukola Saraki, will very much be in the news this year. Since he was sworn in as the Senate president, his eyes have seen pepper. He has been through one crisis to another. He has moved from the allegation of false declaration of his assets when he was governor in his home state, to allegation of forgery of Senate Rules. Last year, he was docked several times and on his behalf a good number of his colleagues stood their ground.

His travails were said to be the handiwork of his party and the Presidency. He was said to have gone through the persecution because of how he emerged the president of the Senate against the wish of the power brokers in his party. Although there seems to be some rapprochement between the Executive and the Legislature, 2016 folded its wings not so much on salutary note in the relationship of both. Saraki is sure to pull some surprises this year. Whatever he does or does not do in the Senate will occupy important news holes.

Yakubu Dogara

The past year was very traumatic for Yakubu Dogara-led House of Representatives over the so-called ‘budget padding’. The Speaker’s integrity was brought into question. The House also contended with the allegation that some of its members involved themselves in unholy alliance and outright rape outside the country. The House like the Senate also did not work so friendly with the Executive which ultimately affected governance. This year, with 2019 approaching, Dogara will be more vibrant and less combative as he would be seeking re-election. How promptly or otherwise he will decide to approach requests from the Executive will put him in the news on a regular basis. In the past year, Dogara’s House was seriously flayed over some exotic cars bought for members at a time when hunger is walking the land and many Nigerians are not being paid, and many are being sacked in their places of work as a result of economic recession. The type of bills that will be sponsored by members and passed will determine how reasonably the Nigerian masses will take Dogara and his colleagues.

Peter Obi

This year, the gubernatorial election will hold in Anambra State. Although he is no longer in power, Peter Obi, a former governor of the state, is still very much in the heart of many people in the state. Since he left office, Obi has continued to grab newspaper headlines with his treatise on the principle of good governance. At every forum since he ceased to be governor, he has continued to beat his chest over his achievements when he called the shots there as governor. Today, a lecture on good governance in any part of the country is never complete without Mr Obi as lead speaker to share his personal experience. Towards the end of last year, observers said Obi must have begun to align forces with Atiku Abubakar and Ahmed Bola Tinubu for the battle of 2019. In his native home-state, reports have it that his successor, Willie Obiano, is not comfortable with the level of respect and followership Obi still enjoys outside office. As election approaches in the state, Obi will be relevant in determining whether Obiano will retain his seat or otherwise. Again, with his ‘Mr. Good Governance’ posturing, the former governor will be courted by politicians who would want to hide under him to sell their candidacy for 2019. Expect many more of public lectures to be addressed by Mr. Peter Obi. He will surely be very visible this year.

Nasir El-Rufai

A former minister of the FCT and now governor of Kaduna State, Nasir El-Rufai, has been in the news since he mounted the stool of power in 2015. He came to power with annoyance- on one hand to block leakages in government purse and on the other to wage a war against those he considers religious extremists. His focus on the later appears to occupy him more than the duty of office and that is where he makes more news than in any other area of governance.  He is being accused of promoting one religion above others. His war against the Shiites group led by ZakZakky has made him regular feature on the pages of national newspapers. Also, his handling of the systematic massacres going on in Southern Kaduna has continued to make news in the country. This year, nothing suggests that El-Rufai will change pattern. As the year 2019 draws nearer, El-Rufai’s name will also be prominently mentioned. It is said that he is a strong supporter of the President and that in the event that Buhari is not willing to stand re-election, some Hausa-Fulani influence may have determined to field El-Rufai to block the chances of Atiku Abubakar whose body language at the moment indicates his eyes are on the big pie. This year, El-Rufai’s actions and inactions will fetch him numerous news holes in the media.

Godwin Emefiele

This Edo State-born technocrat is not a politician, but recruited by politicians to serve his fatherland at the highest level of banking in the land. In the last 18 months, Nigerians have watched helplessly as the monetary policies undertaken by Emefiele and others impacted negatively on them. But those in the know say the problem is not foisted on the people by Emefiele but by the government he serves. The foreign exchange policy adopted by government and supervised by Emefiele has since created a wrong impression about the number one banker in the country as some people see him as their nemesis.  With indications that the economy is not going to be anything better than what it was last year, Emefiele will continue to be in the news. Anything that happens in relation to forex this year, Emefiele’s name will be in the news.

Ibe Kachikwu

As long as Nigeria wholly relies on oil and on the basis of which the 2017 Budget was proposed, Ibe Kachikwu, minister of state for Petroleum Resources, will continue to be relevant. Again, as long as the militants in the Niger Delta continue to playing hide and seek with the Federal Government, Kachikwu will continue to play a relevant role in mediating between the state and the perceived sabotours. Whether the pump prices of petroleum products will come down or go up, the minister will be at the centre of it all. So he is a man to watch this year.

Among other politicians to watch are Ali Modu Sheriff and Ahmed Makarfi, factional leaders of the PDP, Chibuike Amaechi, minister of transportation, and Nyesom Wike, governor of Rivers State, how they will allow peace to reign in Rivers or continue to fan the embers of acrimony among members of the PDP and APC in the state. Also to be watched is Ayo Fayose, governor of Ekiti State, who is unarguably the only vibrant opposition in the land today.

INEC

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has not excited many Nigerians in the last couple of months. Most of the elections it has conducted in recent times have not received commendation. This year, Mahmood Yakubu, chairman of the commission and the institution itself, will be closely watched.

EFCC

The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) has been in the eye of many Nigerians. Its performance has been less salutary.  Its activities this year will be under the radar.  Other institutions to watch are the PDP, the APC, the National Assembly, the Judiciary and the Presidency. These will all spring surprises this year, positively or negatively.