Political parties in Nigeria said they would defy the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and resume campaigns today.
The country’s two main political parties, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the main opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP), as well as the Coalition of United Political Parties (CUPP), said they would proceed with their campaigns despite a directive by INEC.
This is as investors are pricing in the heightening political risks occasioned by the postponement of the election by INEC few hours to commencement.
Mahmood Yakubu, INEC chairman, had announced at a press conference on Saturday that despite postponement of the presidential and parliamentary elections from February 16 to February 23, there would be no more room for political campaign or collection of the Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs).
INEC is estimated to have lost N6.23 billion as a result of the election postponement, according to SB Morgen Intelligence report. Similarly, total cost of polling agents for a one-day election is about N42.7 billion, which has also been lost, while the impact on the GDP is estimated at N191 billion. This brings the total cost on the economy to N239.93 billion based on a $1/N360 exchange rate.
“INEC cannot go contrary to what the law says. Everyone knows that campaigns can only be suspended 24 hours to an election, I will continue with campaigns on Sunday (yesterday) because if we don’t campaign, people will not come out and vote,” Adams Oshiomhole, APC national chairman, was quoted to have said in an interview with the BBC Hausa Service.
“We will tell the people what happened has happened. Let them come out and vote for the president. For one week, if we didn’t talk people will forget, we will campaign,” he said.
The CUPP, comprising 51 of the 91 registered political parties including PDP, said on Sunday that the directive by Yakubu offended the provisions of the Electoral Act, which stipulates that political campaigns should end 24 hours to the polls.
In a press statement signed by Ikenga Ugochinyere, CUPP spokesperson, the opposition parties said they would end their campaigns by midnight of Thursday, February 21, a day to the rescheduled February 23 presidential and National Assembly elections.
“In view of the provisions of the Section 99 of the Electoral Act, the over 51 member parties of the Coalition of United Political Parties (CUPP) hereby direct all members to return to the campaigns fields and recommence campaigns and end by midnight of Thursday, 21st February, 2019 as required by law,” the statement said.
“Section 99 (1) of the Electoral Act provides that public campaigns shall end 24 hours prior to the day of polling. It is therefore wrong to expect that political parties will stop campaigns on 14th February for polls that will open on 23rd February. It is unlawful and statutorily wrong to curtail the clear intendment of this Section of the Electoral Act which is clear and unambiguous.
“Campaigning until 24 hours prior to the day of polling is a statutory right of parties and cannot be taken away, curtailed or abridged by any executive fiat. INEC cannot on its own accord limit the period of campaigns as it is regulated by law,” it said.
The CUPP directed members to continue campaigns, focus on voter re-mobilisation and ensure that its adopted presidential candidate and standard bearer of the PDP, Atiku Abubakar, is elected and declared winner of the presidential election.
On the impact of the postponement on the market, some analysts say the shift in the elections may have negative effect on the market when trading starts today. Some are, however, optimistic the market will sustain its recent gains.
The market has been up 6.8 percent in the past two weeks, its longest stretch in over a year.
In 2011, the presidential election was postponed from April 9 to April 16. The shift was announced in the early hours of Saturday, April 2.
BusinessDay analysis shows that despite the postponement, the market rallied by 1.23 percent from the April 4 to April 15, 2011, the last trading day preceding the election.
In 2015, a week to the commencement of the elections, INEC announced a shift in the date of the presidential election from February 14 to March 28. Analysis of the data also shows that the market gained by 1.96 percent between February 6, a day before the announcement, and March 27, the last trading day before the election.
Based on the above historical data, some analysts do not see any major shift in the market reaction to the postponement.
Ayodeji Ebo, MD Afrinvest, doesn’t expect a sharp reversal of the past gains in the stock market but predicted that the market may slow down today to gauge direction.
“If we see any major sell-off this week, this should present interesting opportunities for investors who missed out in the cycle early this month,” he said.
Speaking earlier in a BBC Hausa Service interview, Rabiu Kwankwaso, a campaign director of the Atiku Abubakar Campaign Organisation, was also quoted as saying since the election has been postponed, parties and candidates should be allowed to continue with campaigns.
“From now to one week, there is no reason we will suspend the campaign because the law clearly states that campaigns should be suspended 24 hours to an election,” Kwankwaso said.
“Nobody ordered them to postpone the election. Now that they postponed the election, we will have the chance to go and campaign,” he said.
OWEDE AGBAJILEKE, Abuja, & OLUFIKAYO OWOEYE
