Nigeria’s food import bill may soar due to harsh weather condition

Nigeria’s food import bill may soar as agricultural activities in 2016 have been predicted to experience significant decline. This follows the disclosure by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) that most parts of the country will experience less than normal volume, delayed, and early cessation of rainfall compared with previous years.

While the government’s efforts to boost food supply by 20 million metric tons from 2011 to 2015 have seen the country’s food import bill drop by more than half to $5 billion from $11 billion two years earlier, a drop in agriculture output is likely to set this back.

The prediction of lesser rainfalls, hotter days, warm nights and heat waves this year is likely to reduce the contribution of the agric sector to the country’s GDP by playing a leading role in the diversification process.

Extreme weather conditions are likely to affect not only the outcome of this year’s planting season, but also government’s plans to stop food importation, which has been valued at over N1 trillion annually, or at least reduce it to the barest minimum.

Experts, who spoke with BusinessDay, have attributed these projections to increased temperature conditions attributed to climate change, and which is now affecting the agriculture cycle, while on the other hand, irrigation farming has been advocated in order to cushion the effects of inadequate rainfall.

“This is a sign of climate change. The dryness of the weather currently will affect the quality of crops and the pricing,” says Desmond Majekodunmi, an environmentalist, as “most farmers don’t have alternatives apart from rainfall.”

According to NIMET, the rainfall pattern for 2016 may pose a great risk to farmers in the areas that will be most affected, urging concerned government ministries to carefully manage the situation.

“Our key message today is that most parts of Nigeria are likely to experience delayed onset, early cessation and less-than-normal rainfall amounts as well as dry spells. These are risk factors for farmers in the affected areas and must be carefully managed,” says Anthony Anuforom, director-general of NIMET, at a recent presentation in Abuja.

The prediction indicated that late onset and early cessation of rainfall in and around Sokoto, Yobe, Zamfara, Kaduna, Borno and Adamawa states was likely to create water stress leading to reduction in production tonnage.

According to the prediction, farmers and agriculturists are advised to heed this important item in the 2016 Seasonal Rainfall Prediction and should supplement with irrigation to enhance crop development.

Abiodun Olorundenro, CEO, Green Vine Farms, told BusinessDay that proactive measures were already being taken to cushion the anticipated effects of reduced rainfall, saying he intended farming with irrigation as a backup plan to cushion the effect of the dry weather on his crops.

He however lamented that using irrigation and the cost, which comes with it, would limit the extent of hectares he would be able to cultivate in this year’s planting.

Oludenro also noted: “A lot of framers have not started farming yet. Most of them are still preparing their land for the farming season.  The current hot weather might delay planting because we are looking at the patterns before planting.”

The agricultural sector used to be the dominant contributor to Nigeria’s GDP with contributions as much as 40 percent, but that has been diluted as other sectors such as finance services, construction, entertainment etc. have braced up their contribution to the economy.

The agricultural sector contributed 24.2 percent to GDP in real terms, according to the latest GDP report.

 Agrometeorological Bulletin, which was earlier released through NIMET’s website this month, had noted: “Dry season farming is expected to continue over the Northern axis with increasing need for irrigation water.”

The stretch of the South is expected to start preparation for rain fed agriculture. Harvesting of farm produce from irrigation farming and drying of crops will remain the dominant agricultural activity for the third dekad (week) of February. Fruits and vegetables are expected to flood the market, as this is its optimal yield of the season.”