As next month’s general elections gather steam, so many blockbuster movies are competing for attention in the Nigerian political arena in the week under review.
From the trial of the Chief Justice of Nigeria (CJN), Walter Onnoghen, at the Code of Conduct Tribunal (CCT) for false assets declaration to freezing of his bank accounts, release of the controversial election guidelines by INEC, multiple gaffes and unforced errors of President Muhammadu Buhari at the town hall meeting and APC presidential campaign rally in Kogi and Delta States, the list is endless.
But perhaps the biggest story of the week is the ‘triumphal entry’ of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar into the United States, which political observers say has laid to rest a 12-year deprivation of visa to a country in which he once lived and owned properties.
Although the entry of a private citizen into the US soil is not a campaign issue, the Presidency and the governing APC made a mountain out of a molehill when they taunted and mocked the PDP presidential candidate to enter the shores of US to campaign.
Commentators say the representation of Atiku by his running mate, Peter Obi, at a town hall meeting in the United States recently exacerbated the situation.
Specifically in November 2018, Festus Keyamo (SAN), director, Strategic Communications of the President Muhammadu Buhari Campaign Organisation, had declared on national television that the moment Atiku sets foot on United States soil as a private citizen, he would face criminal charges.
Also in a press statement, Keyamo listed the $40 million laundering case against Atiku, the Siemens bribery scandal, a $145 million PTDF indictment by a Senate subcommittee and a slew of other corruption allegations which prominently featured Atiku’s name. “The U.S Congress in a report titled ‘Keeping Foreign Corruption out of the United States: Four Case Histories’ featured Atiku as one of the four notorious cases of money laundering in the world!” Keyamo said.
Quoting the report, he said: “Jennifer Douglas Abubakar, a U.S. citizen, is the fourth wife of Atiku Abubakar, the former Vice President of Nigeria and a former candidate for the Presidency of Nigeria… from 2000 to 2008, Ms. Douglas helped her husband bring over $40 million in suspect funds into the United States, including at least $1.7 million in bribe payments from Siemens AG, a German corporation, and over $38 million from little known offshore corporations, primarily LetsGo Ltd. Inc., Guernsey Trust Company Nigeria Ltd., and Sima Holding Ltd. Atiku’s co-conspirators, Williams Jefferson and Siemens in the bribery deal were convicted and Jefferson went to jail.”
He dismissed reports that the United States Justice Department had announced that there are no pending corruption cases against Atiku in America, saying, “He (Atiku) has a sealed indictment waiting for him in the U.S.”
With the US visit, the PDP presidential candidate may have put to rest corruption allegations against him. But will this tip the outcome of the forthcoming election as claimed by Information Minister Lai Mohammed, who earlier warned against granting him a visa? Is the visit a tacit endorsement by foreign powers?
The answers are not far fetched. Recent events have shown that foreign powers have vested interests in what happens in the outcome of every election in Africa and other developing countries. In South Africa, Zimbabwe and The Gambia, they were also instrumental in the ousting of leaders of the three countries on account of sit-tight leadership and alleged corruption.
Back home in Nigeria, foreign powers have also given tacit support to their preferred candidates who eventually emerged winners of presidential elections. From former President Obasanjo, late Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, Goodluck Jonathan to President Buhari, the story is the same.
In his memoir, ‘My Transition Hours’, Jonathan attributed his defeat to Buhari in the last general election to plots by former United States President Barack Obama and David Cameron, then UK Prime Minister.
Although Buhari came into office in 2015 with high expectations, he fell out with world leaders after Obasanjo led other retired generals to withdraw support for him. The development reached a tipping point when US President Donald Trump was reported to have described Buhari as ‘lifeless’. This was closely followed by the ‘endorsement’ of Atiku by influential London-based Economist magazine.
A political analyst, who spoke to BusinessDay on condition of anonymity, attributed the foreign powers’ interest in who emerges as Nigeria’s leader to what he described as prevention of possible humanitarian crisis and protection of their business interests.
He argued that besides protecting their investments and their nationals in Nigeria, foreign powers are also mindful that a post-election crisis could lead to humanitarian crisis.
“The international community is particularly mindful of the humanitarian crisis that may arise (in the event of post-election violence) and if this happens, you will have a lot of Nigerians migrate to Europe. And so, the international community is mindful of that kind of explosion and the crisis it will create not just for Africa but for Europe and the world at large. They won’t be able to accommodate Nigerian migrants. And they will not have a choice but to open their doors. The international convention provides that countries should open their doors to accept asylum seekers. So, they become very proactive when elections in Nigeria begin to come close,” the political analyst said.
“Secondly, it is for their own business interest here in Nigeria. We have a lot of human and natural resources. For instance, if you go to the Niger Delta area, of course, you know the major oil companies there are foreign. So, they have a lot of foreigners resident in Nigeria because of the huge resources. So, if there is a crisis in Nigeria, it could affect their own economy one way or the other,” he said.
Whether the goodwill shown by the international community would translate to Atiku’s victory at the polls or if Buhari will break the jinx by emerging victorious without foreign powers, results of the February 16 presidential election will tell.
OWEDE AGBAJILEKE, Abuja
