• Thursday, March 28, 2024
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Investors see clarity for Nigerian economy despite Atiku’s planned legal challenge

Nigeria economy

Investors will carry on with business in Nigeria regardless of the decision by Atiku Abubakar, candidate of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in the February 23, 2019 presidential election, to challenge the outcome of the election in court, analysts told BusinessDay on Thursday.
This is because the business community is now certain of who will be president of Africa’s largest economy in the next four years.

“If the election had not been conclusive, it might have affected the economy adversely,” Ayo Teriba, CEO, Economic Associates, said.

“But the election was conclusive, a winner has been declared. And so, if he wants to go to court to challenge it, it may take 15 months, 20 months, or maybe 30 months. I just wish the man well,” Teriba said.

President Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) on Wednesday in Abuja received a Certificate of Return from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), having earlier been announced winner of last Saturday’s presidential election.

Buhari polled a total of 15.19 million votes to defeat his closest rival, Atiku Abubakar of the PDP, who scored 11.26 million votes.

Atiku on Wednesday officially rejected the result, saying he would challenge it in court. The Presidency replied on Thursday, saying it was not jittery over the PDP candidate’s decision to go to court.

But some analysts say Atiku’s decision to go to court may not have any negative impact on the economy.

Although Ayodeji Ebo, managing director, Afrinvest Securities Limited, admitted it may cause some form of uncertainty, he, however, ruled out “any major negative impact in terms of investment and sentiment on the Nigeria economy” for some foreign investors who understand how things work in the country.

“What we all just expect is that it will be business as usual. If history is anything to go by, we have never had any situation where any presidential election has been overturned in Nigeria, so it is really going to be a very difficult one for Atiku for the Supreme Court to overturn the presidential election,” Ebo said.

Rafiq Raji, chief economist at Macroafricaintel, said “he [Atiku] has chosen to go through the proper legal process and that is a plus for the economy”.

“Of course, had Atiku conceded, it would have been a relief for likely fatigued political actors. The expression of his grievance in a civilised manner is also likely a great relief to everyone,” Raji said.

“Atiku should go to court but he should also ask Buhari the outcome of his court cases on the elections preceding 2015. Buhari probably knew it will result to court issues, maybe that’s why there are issues with the former CJN in the first place,” a political analyst familiar with the issue told BusinessDay on condition of anonymity.

BusinessDay checks show that in 2003, 2007 and 2011 when he lost his presidential bid, Buhari had gone to court to challenge and overturn the outcome of the polls but failed.

On how the court issue may impact investors’ sentiment, Teriba of Economic Associates said an inconclusive election would have had a negative impact on investors’ sentiment. But once the election was conclusive and “a winner has emerged”, investors “will do business with the winner”.

Ayo Akinwunmi, head of research, FSDH Merchant Bank, said Atiku’s decision to go to court was better than asking his supporters to go to the street for demonstration because he didn’t win.

“I have trust in the judiciary. So if he has grievances about the outcome of the election, he has chosen the best medium to seek his result,” Akinwunmi told BusinessDay by phone.

 

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