The Nigeria economy will carry on with business regardless of the decision by Atiku Abubakar, the presidential candidate of People’s Democratic Party, to challenge the result of the 2019 presidential election in court, five analysts polled by BusinessDay have said.
This is because the business community in Africa’s largest economy is now certain of whom the country’s president will be in the next four years.
Ayodeji Ebo, the Managing Director of Afrinvest Securities Limited, said “what we all just expect is that it will be business as usual. If history is anything to go by, we have never had any situation where any presidential election has been overturned in Nigeria, so it is really going to be a very difficult one for Atiku, for the Supreme Court to overturn the presidential election.”
Ayo Teriba, the Chief Executive Officer of Economic Associates doesn’t think Atiku’s decision to go to court is going to affect the economy in any way.
“If the election had not been conclusive, it may affect the economy adversely but the election was conclusive, a winner has been declared and so, if he wants to go to court to challenge it, it may 30 months, 15 months or it may take 20 months. I just wish the man well,” Teriba said.
Meanwhile, the defeated rival, Atiku Abubakar, on Wednesday said he will go to court to contest Independent National Electoral Commission results showing a 56 percent to 41 percent victory for Buhari and called the vote a “sham.”
“Consequently, I hereby reject the result of the February 23, 2019 sham election and will be challenging it in court,” Atiku said on his twitter handle by 1:02 AM – 27 Feb 2019.
Rafiq Raji, the chief economist at Macroafricaintel responding to Akitu’s decision said “he has chosen to go through the proper legal process. That is a plus for the economy.”
A survey by BusinessDay shows that Buhari had gone in the direction Atiku is planning to go, as preceding the 2015 election which brought him to power, he had gone to court on three consecutive election period.
In 2011, Buhari who was then the presidential candidate of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), challenged results of the presidential elections at the tribunal on the basis of alleged suppression of his votes and inflation of those of the declared winner, Goodluck Jonathan of the People’s Democratic Party, PDP, but his request was not granted.
Similarly, his efforts to reverse his losses in 2003 and 2007 were also rejected by the courts.
A political analyst familiar with the issue who spoke to BusinessDay on the condition of anonymity said: “Atiku should go to court but he should also ask Buhari the outcome of his court cases on the elections preceding 2015. Buhari probably knew it will result to court issues maybe that’s why there are issues with the former CJN in the first place.”
Ebo said although it may cause some form of uncertainty but for some foreign investors that understand how things work in Nigeria, “I expect that we won’t see any major negative impact in terms of investment and sentiment on the Nigeria economy.”
Raji also said “of course had Atiku conceded, it would have been a relief for likely fatigued political actors. The expression of his grievance in a civilised manner is also likely a great relief to everyone.”
On how the court issue may impact investors’ sentiment for the country, Teriba said as far as investors are concerned, the conclusive election is the most important thing.
“If the election was not held or was not conclusive, it would have had a negative impact on investors’ sentiment, but election was held, conclusive and a winner has emerged and as long as investors are concerned, they will do business with the winner,” Teriba told BusinessDay.
Ayo Akinwunmi, Head of Research, FSDH Merchant Bank, gave the last comment, saying that Atiku’s decision to go to court is better than asking his supporter to go to the street for demonstration because he didn’t win.
“I have trust in the Judiciary, so if he has grievances about the outcome of the election, he has chosen the best medium to seek his result,” Akinwunmi told BusinessDay by phone.
Endurance Okafor
