Ahead of the June 11 proclamation of the 9th Assembly of the House of Representatives, the hotly contested race for the Speaker of the House is gradually narrowing down to two top contenders, Femi Gbajabiamila (APC, Lagos) and Umar Bago (APC, Niger).
While Gbajabiamila has been adopted by the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) for the job, Bago is contesting on the ground of what pundits described as ‘popular demand’.
Consequently, the question many observers are asking is: “Can Bago be another Dogara” in this contest?
Recall that the outgoing Speaker of the House, Yakuba Dogara ascended the throne of the number four person in the country’s political hierarchy in 2015 against the plan of his then party, the APC.
Dogara became speaker on June 9, 2015 under APC when he defied APC decision for current House Leader, Gbajabiamila emerge Speaker of the 8th Assembly.
He scored 182 votes, defeating Gbajabiamila who got 174 votes, while four votes were voided. Dogara joined forces with some APC members at the time along with PDP lawmakers who gave him overwhelming support. The APC had 213 members at the time, while PDP had about 140 lawmakers.
There are strong indications that the same script would be acted in the 9th Assembly leadership selection as there seems to be stiff opposition against the APC Gbajabiamila both within and outside the party.
As it is now, one aspirant that is likely to emerge in the circumstances that Dogara emerged is Bago who is favoured by ethnic agitation, independence from party control or godfatherism, inter-party acceptability and popularity.
By ethnic agitation or zoning which is a major factor in Nigerian politics, Bago is favoured because he is from the North-Central State of Niger. North-Central which harbours minority ethnicities in the Middle Belt region has argued validly that it deserved the office of Speaker for fairness, justice and ethnicity.
The North-Central APC caucus in the House of Representatives has been emphatic that the South-West geopolitical zone where Gbajabiamila hailed from, presently has the Vice President, Yemi Osibanjo and in terms of party patronage, North-Central had produced the third highest block of votes that brought back APC into power.
The caucus led by John Dyegh (Benue) had called on the party to consider the power sharing formula in the country and the overwhelming support given the party in 2015 and 2019 and accordingly reward the central zone.
“We the members of the North Central Caucus of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the House of Representatives called this briefing to express our position with respect to the leadership position of the 9th assembly.
“It is in this regard that we humbly wish to appeal to our great party, the APC, to strongly consider the North Central geo-political zone for the position of Speaker of the House of Representatives in the 9th assembly. Our position is based on the following reasons:
“Zoning the position of speaker to the North Central will satisfy and advance the cause of equity since the North-west and South-west already have the presidency and vice presidency respectively.
“We note that apart from the North West and North-East, the North Central zone delivered handsomely for the party in the general elections and as such needs to be rewarded for the hard work and loyalty.
“The need to ensure balance and spread between and among the six geo-political zones has made it imperative to give prime consideration to the North Central zone to produce the position of speaker”, Dyegh demanded.
In the North-Central zone, the only aspirant in race for the Speaker is Dyegh from Benue who is already working with Bago with likelihood of the former backing the latter for a joint struggle for the recognition of the zone by the APC in the sharing of leadership positions.
As Bago had noted, “he (Dyegh) came to us, to identify with our cause and that he also believes in the North-Central speakership project. Therefore, he wants us to form an alliance so that we can foster the aspiration of the North-Central. If we are able to achieve that, then we will choose among ourselves one person that will go for the position.
“I started this issue of equity, justice and fairness, and all of them have lent their voices to my struggle because it is a collective one. Is it the decision of the National Executive Committee or National Working Committee. Who decided; who and who sat? We need the minutes of the meeting that decided that they would endorse people. You can micromanage the situation to say, ‘take it to this zone or that zone’, you cannot microzone to an individual. It shows desperation of an aspiration.
“The ‘coup d’état’ that brought the APC to government was orchestrated in the National Assembly, particularly in the House of Representatives and (the national leader of the APC, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, from outside), was part of the coup d’état. He provided the tools that were used and the awareness of members. Because we understand his ways, we are very wary of what he wants to do”.
Dyegh also concurred that, “it was a solidarity meeting so that the speakership will come to the North-Central. Bago is not my enemy; he is my friend. My visiting him was in solidarity, to show to the world that this thing that we are doing is in friendship and it must come to the North-Central. We must work together and make sure that it comes to the zone.
“We feel it is ours; any other persons doing it are just trying their luck. It is not over until it is over. We still think there is room for negotiation. We still feel very strongly that the party made a mistake by taking it to the South-West which already has the Vice-President.
“If they are taking the speakership to the South-West, they should take the Senate presidency to the North-West. If you are giving the Vice-President, the Speaker; give the President, the Senate President to balance it.
“Nigeria belongs to all of us; it does not belong to individuals. The North-Central has worked for the unity of this country for the APC and the government of the day, particularly President Muhammadu Buhari’s re-election.
“Why would they think that our votes don’t matter? We brought the third largest votes over and above the South-West. So, why would they take what rightly belongs to us and give it to the South-West which already has the Vice-President? These are the points we are raising”.
Also, Bago more than any other candidate has the express backing of his home state, Niger and the Governor of his State, Abubakar Bello who is lobbying other governors and APC chieftains in the entire 19 northern states to support his candidature.
Bello had told members-elect during their induction that, “going by our own record since 2015 to 2019, when you check the record, Niger State is about rated 6th in terms of performance when it comes to delivery for APC in presidential elections.
“This particular position of speakership is not in contest and it is not a miscalculation when you check the record since 2015, we have a zoning pattern. The essence of zoning is to reduce tension and allow other regions to benefit.
“The people of Niger State, we are appealing to all the members-elect that this particular position should come to North Central, and to Niger State.
“We as a government will do everything humanly possible, both in morale support and otherwise, to ensure this position come to Niger State”.
On the other hand, unlike Gbajabiamila who apart from being endorsed by his party, the APC, is the candidate of the National Leader of the party, Tinubu, Bago is more or less an independent candidate who is not representing a party agenda or that of any political godfather.
Rather, Bago who openly declared that he has no godfather as the race for Speaker is concerned, said his ambition was to correct the imbalance orchestrated by his party, stressing that he wouldn’t have bothered if the APC zoned the position to South-East, South-South or North-Central.
According to him, “The North West, South West and North East have all produced five different speakers between them. The South-South, North East, South East and South West have also produced five deputy speakers among themselves since 1999.
“What does the North Central has in the entire equation, and they want us to keep mute? Who’s speaking for the zone that has never been recognised for keeping faith with the party?
“Despite all the crises and challenges bedeviling the zone under the APC administration, we stayed the course for the party and the President, delivering more than 70 percent of vote cast”, he argued.
Bago noted that the party has no basis for insisting on a zone that has serially dominated governance in the last 20 years, saying: “What’s the southwest’s contribution to the party’s victory in the last elections compared to that of the North Central?
“As such, we deserve the position, not on basis of state but also as a zone. So, nobody can say he wants to expel us from this party. And no one will singlehandedly take over the structure of the legislature as well as the party.
“Apart from the zoning argument, if you say the South must get something, why insist on Southwest, why not South-South or the South East?
“But then, in terms of representation in the party and government, the South-South has the chairmanship of the party, and the Southwest has VP, what does North Central have? Nothing”.
Also, unlike Gbajabiamila the anointed candidate of APC who has not dispelled the threat of his party that the opposition, particularly the PDP, would not head committees, Bago had at the pseudo-screening of candidates by the PDP promised that there would be proportionate allocation of committees under his leadership.
Adams Oshipmhole, APC National chairman had insisted that they would not share power with the opposition PDP at the National Assembly even in the headship of Committees.
“We will not share power in the House of Representatives and the leadership must ensure that critical Committees that drive government are shared only among APC members. So, all the Chairmen of Committees except one that I know it is statutorily reserved for opposition which is public account; we will have that.
“So, we will not do the kind of thing that happened the last time in which some APC members as members of the leading party became spectators in the management of the Committees when PDP has majority of strategic Committees. That will not happen in the next Assembly”, Oshiomhole instructed.
Furthermore, Bago appears to be enjoying inter – party support as he received thunder of accolades more than other aspirants during the presentation at the PDP caucus while none of the aspirants has spoken against his aspiration even as most of them have asked APC to rescind the zoning decision to South-West and that Gbajabiamila should step down.
For instance, Nkeiruka Onyejeocha, a speakership aspirant from South-East, asked the party to rescind its zoning decision to South West and called on Gbajabiamila to withdraw from the race.
“I am appealing to them that it is not yet late to rescind their decision to include a woman to clip the two geopolitical zones that were left out ab initio. Also the leader of the House, Hon. Femi Gbajabiamila, there is time in somebody’s life that any leader should make sacrifice and that time is now for the leader of my party, and the leader of the 8th Assembly,” she said.
Similarly, Chike Okafor, another contender from South-East, also told APC to sacrifice Gbajabiamila, in the interest of national unity. “The party should be able to sacrifice merit and competence to be able to accommodate social justice, fairness, and to embrace unity.
“The party will also find competence and merit in other people who are also aspiring. We are not saying sacrifice merit and competence and go and pick a neophyte or go and pick a non-ranking member. No. That is not what we are saying and I will not stand here because of my ambition and not allude to fact that the party’s choice is ably qualified,” Okafor said.
Only recently Bago’s candidacy received major boost as 156 members-elect reportedly declared their support and promised to vote for him during the election.
The Director of Media and Publicity of Bago’s Campaign, Afam Ogene, while reacting to the endorsement, said: “We have been meeting and we will continue to meet because ours is ideal to ensure equity and fairness among the six geopolitical zones of the country”.
According to him, “We believe that Hon. Bago is more than qualified to be Speaker, and coming from the North Central that has never occupied the position, we are sure he will be elected”.
There are strong indications in the House of Representatives that majority of the returning lawmakers and a section of the APC have teamed up with Bago and are seriously working against the combatant-like disposition of Oshiomhole and Tinubu to hijack the leadership of the House.
James Kwen, Abuja
