Food Alert: Nigeria’s food security at mercy of terrorism, low rainfall

If the report by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) is anything to go by, a shortfall in the availability of farm and agric-related produce for consumption across the country is to be expected in the coming year.

Apart from the climate-related issues, the terrorist insurgency experienced in the Northeastern and central part of the country have been pinpointed by regional analysts as another key trigger for the scarcity as farmers are unable to tend to their arable lands for fear of attack from Boko Haram.

 In the last three months, more than 200 people cumulatively have been killed in bomb-blasts rocking Kaduna, Bauchi and large portions of the northeastern parts of the country. 

All of that is already reflecting on the activities of the food belt with most of the farmers moving out because of the many small wars going on in the country.

 In March this year, the National Economic Council, NEC, raised alert over imminent shortage of food in the country, attributing their concern to the activities of ‘mercenaries’ in the country.

The prognosis of the research by IFPRI, which was carried out in collaboration with the West and Central African Council for Agricultural Research and Development, reveals that food scarcity would only be averted if deliberate efforts are made by both governments and the private sector to include climate change adaptation to food security investment in the region.

 In line with the institute’s assertions, analysts at Financial Derivatives Company suggest that with the country having gone through four cycles of inflation in less than six months, with the most recent being a rise from 8.0 percent to 8.2 percent, Nigeria is likely on the verge of a major disaster in the agri-sector due to inconsistent variables with foreign exchange and its association with importation. 

Low yield during this year’s planting season as a result of inadequate rainfall and political unrest were also listed as contributory factors for the shortage.

 At a public presentation of the Nigerian Metrological Institute, NiMet, Dr. Anthony Anuforom, the Director-General of the climate monitoring and weather forecasting agency, also disclosed during the 2014 Seasonal Rainfall Prediction meeting in Abuja that most parts of the country will experience shorter rainy and planting seasons. 

While speaking at the conference, he said, “Based on the signals we have at the moment, this is a year we are to witness shorter than normal rainy season. In other words, we are going to have shorter planting and cropping seasons. We are also seeing a year that we will have widespread little dryness and it is likely to be more pronounced than we had in the previous season.” 

This invariably gives credence to allusions of an imminent crisis in the food sector in 2015.

 While stakeholders clamour for sustainable resolutions to the foreseeable challenges, government forces have continually disputed claims by these agencies insisting rather that the federal government through its Transformation Agenda, runs a very robust strategic food reserve, designed to help mitigate the impact of severe food shortage should the situation arise.

 Responding to questions posed by BDSUNDAY, the Special Adviser to the Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development, Dr. Olukayode Oyeleye, refuted the allegations. He insisted that the gross output in the agricultural sector has been on the increase; a key reason in his opinion why the country has been relatively insulated from the price spikes in staple products experienced around the world. 

Also dismissing the assertions, Olumuyiwa Osiname – Head the Federal Government’s Rice Transformation team said, “Since the restriction on the importation of rice, people are trying to raise all kinds of panic stories to make the government divert from the decision they have taken. They are just stories! Call those in Kano and ask them if they are short of rice in their paddies. They have a pyramid of rice there, which we saw as at two weeks ago.

 “I’m not aware,” he said, “of any report adding that there will be food crisis next year because we have had a fair amount of rainfall. It is strange to me. If they say that [there has been less farming in] the area [of the bombings], yes I can agree with that because the farmers have not been able to work. From all indications, the farmers have collected their seeds from our Growth Enhancement Support Scheme and we assume that they are planting. So far, no rainfall problem has come to my notice.”

 Osiname however affirmed that with the local demand for rice far exceeding the rate at which the farmers are able to supply the staple, more effort will be needed to increase production to meet the needs of Nigerians.

 As views are traded across board, there may be some practicality to government’s position on the issue as indicators based on studies conducted by the World Bank show that in spite of the economic and security challenges observed in our clime over the last two decades, a slight but remarkable increase in the annual yield of agricultural produce has been documented.

 Between 1990 and 2010 alone, exports in the good and services in the food sector witnessed a 603.5 percent jump from $12.4 billion exported at the start of the decade to $74. 6 billion at the tail end – am impressive trend says the World Bank.

 Proffering a solution to tackle the possible impending scourge, Anuforom suggests that crop producers who bare the intention of ameliorating the impact of scarcity during the period are to begin cultivating seed varieties that yield rapid harvests. The DG posited,  “This is very important because it will make sure that within the shorter rainy season they can quickly plant and the crops will reach maturity and harvesting within the short rainy season that is likely to occur.”

Long-term investments

 Although there has been a noticeable rise in the amount of agri-products and services leaving through the border, there are still implicit concerns over the general cost spent on the importation of food even though this is required to augment the low production capacity observed in the agri-sector. 

In spite of the emphasis placed by government on boosting local yield through the utilization of its over 74 million hectares of arable land, the country’s yearly importation bill to meet the staple foods need of Nigerians has been termed ‘unhealthy’.

 Speaking at the flag-off of the Commercial Agricultural Credit Scheme, CACS, the Minister of Agriculture, Akinwunmi Adesina stated that approximately $14 billion in foreign exchange was expended by the local forces in the purchase of staple commodities from countries who have developed their internal food reserves and are generating income from agriculture for general infrastructural development; a pattern he believes Nigeria should emulate. 

President Goodluck Jonathan’s agricultural transformation agenda which was launched in 2011, put in motion plans to ensure that the country is agriculturally self-sufficient by 2015 by adding 20 million metric tonnes to the domestic food supply. Only two weeks ago, Africa’s largest farm with the capacity to produce 105,000 metric tonnes of rice per season was commissioned in Nasarawa state.

 With investors showing an increasing desire to take on risks in the agricultural sector as government propels public-private partnerships through equity maximization as well as the provision of fiscal and infrastructural incentives, chances are higher for total food self-sufficiency by the year 2020.

Rita Ohai