The postponement of Nigeria’s presidential elections on security grounds has flushed into the open scenarios reminiscent of the dark days when the country’s democratic aspirations were stifled by a military cabal.
The polls will take place against a backdrop of regional and ethnic tensions, with the ruling Peoples Democratic party up against a well-organised opposition.
A free and fair vote could lead to the country’s first constitutional transfer of power, an event that, if handled peacefully, would not only further Nigeria’s political evolution, but provide a fillip to democracy across the continent.
If, on the other hand, the constitutional process is disrupted at the first sign of a real political contest since the restoration of civilian rule in 1999, it would set back democratic progress by years and potentially trigger chaos, civil society groups and prominent leaders including former president Olusegun Obasanjo warn. Amid the uncertainty, several possible scenarios are emerging.
Various opinion polls have placed the main presidential contenders, incumbent Goodluck Jonathan and opposition challenger, General Muhammadu Buhari, roughly neck and neck.
But members of Gen Buhari’s All Progressives Congress are convinced their candidate can win in the first round on March 28. This would require the 73-year old former military ruler from the predominately Muslim north to gain more than 50 per cent of the overall vote.
To avoid a run-off he would also have to win 25 per cent or more of the vote in at least 24 of the 36 states in the federation, including from some of Mr Jonathan’s strongholds in the mostly Christian south.
Fractured and, according to several PDP members, showing signs of panic at support for Gen Buhari earlier this month, the PDP is now regrouping.
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Officials hope that a belated, successful military offensive against Boko Haram insurgents in the northeast, and the advantages of incumbency will swing things back in Mr Jonathan’s favour.
It is not clear whether either candidate can win the numbers required by the constitution to avoid a run-off. But should Gen Buhari gain an unassailable lead, opposition and civil society activists are alarmed that factions within the ruling party who fear his anti-corruption credentials will try to prevent him from becoming president and opening up the books.
New biometric voter cards are designed to prevent wholesale rigging. But the results could still be tinkered with at the state level, the government could deploy the army to depress opposition turnout in battleground states — as happened allegedly in the Ekiti state by-election last year — or the new voting system could be scrapped to make way for ballot stuffing.
The polls could also be postponed again on security grounds — although Mr Jonathan insists this will not happen. Finally, an inconclusive run-off and legal challenges to the process could delay the outcome until after May 29, when the incumbent is obliged to stand down.
In the event of a stalemate, politicians and civil society groups have expressed concern that there may be a plan to install some form of ad hoc, national unity government. This would exclude both candidates but co-opt some of their lieutenants under an interim leader.
Both government and opposition figures have denounced that possibility.
An interim government would be “alien to the constitution” says Mohammed Bello Adoke, the attorney-general. Mr Jonathan told the FT such a government could only emerge from a military coup.
However, he could theoretically push back the polls and extend his tenure on a rolling six-month basis by declaring the nation at war with Boko Haram insurgents. This would require the — unlikely — endorsement of two-thirds of the National Assembly.
Alternatively if for whatever reason no winner emerges by May 29, the senate president, former army colonel David Mark, would stand in with 60 days to organise elections.
The fear is that without popular legitimacy, any government — military or civilian — will struggle to repair the fissures that will appear should Gen Buhari’s followers in the north believe him to have been cheated of victory.
The same applies to a lesser degree to Mr Jonathan’s supporters, with former warlords in the oil-producing Niger delta threatening to take up arms again should he be bullied out of office.
In such a febrile environment, there is a risk of ethnic killing especially in the north — as happened in 1965 in the run-up to the Biafran civil war.
Nigeria has withdrawn from the brink on several occasions since. This time the army, potentially divided and already pinned down by Boko Haram, might have difficulty containing violence across many fronts, and the country’s future as one nation would be at stake.
“These next five weeks are among the most dangerous in Nigeria’s history,” says Nasir el-Rufai, a former government minister contesting the Kaduna state governorship.
William Wallis FT
