The Federal Government’s mandate to operators to block subscribers who are not registered on the government identity card project in two weeks could imperil the telecommunication sector, set back the economy and worsen COVID-19 infections in Nigeria.
The directive follows the alarmingly familiar pattern of rash, poorly conceived government regulations implemented with mania, which stifles businesses, creates hardship for people, and earns condemnation, regardless of the government’s intentions.
What is worse is that the move is a threat to the resilient growth achieved by the telecommunication sector, which has been one of the best performing sectors amid Nigeria’s economic gloom and the COVID-19 pandemic.
The telecoms sector’s contribution to Nigeria’s GDP doubled from 7.70 percent in 2012 to 14.30 percent in the second quarter of 2020 before dipping to 11.20 percent in the third quarter of the year according to figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). It was the fastest growing sector in the third quarter after Mining and Quarrying, with growth of 17.38 percent.
Telcos have an impossible task on their hands to register what BusinessDay estimates to be 19 million subscribers without National Identification Numbers (NINs) in two weeks. Data from the National Identity Management Commission (NIMC) show that as of October 2020, 42 million NINs have been issued to Nigerians, which is 21 percent of the total population. 24.3m subscribers may be affected
In July 2020, Nigeria had 198.9 million active lines. Assuming each Nigerian had three lines that leave a conservative estimate of 66.3 million unique subscribers. When this is deducted from the number of existing NINs in the country, it means about 24.3 million could besiege telco offices in the coming days.
It took the NIMC 10 years to allocate 42 million NINs, an indication of the slow and lengthy process of securing NINs.
The NIMC’s current capacity is around 500,000 a month and only recently pledged to scale up enrolment and issuance of the unique NINs to Nigerians and legal residents, from 500,000 to 2.5 million monthly as millions who have been registered are yet to be issued cards.
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“It’s impossible to achieve the directive of the NCC in two weeks,” an industry source who did not want to be named, said.
“It’s a shame that the government will stop at nothing to show its disdain for private investments with such brainless policies,” the source said. “The biggest worry is how much this could set back such a high-flying sector and the signal it sends to foreign direct investors about our policy environment.”
According to a statement from the ministry, the directive was prompted by the need to consolidate the achievements of last year’s SIM registration audit and improve the performance and sanity of the sector.
Isa Pantami, minister of communication and digital economy, officials of the Nigerian Communication Commission (NCC) compelled network operators to agree to these drastic measures upon the pain of losing their licences.
After series of violent crimes including kidnappings and murder of scores of Nigerians by criminal gangs, the hapless government wants to improve the integrity and transparency of the SIM registration process, making it easy to identify people.
But the plan is fraught with absence of a clear strategy as indicated by the fact that it will compel Nigerians to huddle in large groups to register even when another government agency, the NCDC had warned against this very type of situation, in a November 30 advisory to check the second wave of COVID-19.
On social media, many Nigerians wondered if the various officials under this APC-led Federal Government were in competition to see who comes up with the most ludicrous policy.
“There are over 180m active phone lines in Nigeria, how many Nigerians have NIN number? Probably less than 30m. What are the plans in place to capture over 40m Nigerians with active phone lines in 2 weeks? Is NIMC ready? Do they have the capacity? Do you guys think?” a Twitter user posted on the network.
While the NCC had ordered a two-week notice to register on NIN, it had not announced plans to avoid overcrowding in city centres, how those in rural areas far from city centres will be connected, and what support it would give the poorly-equipped NIMC who had only been able to register 40 million Nigerians in 10 years.
These policies from the Commission, analysts say will imperil tele-density growth (which is the number of active telephone connections per hundred inhabitants living in an area, expressed as a percentage of a figure) and destroy the business models of thousands of Nigerians in the gig economy.
For many Nigerians, it also brings back memories of the government’s repeated failures in carrying out registration processes in the past.
For instance, the plastic national identity card registration began since 2013 and by 2020 less than 50 million Nigerians were issued cards. Also, the implementation of the Biometric Verification Number (BVN) kicked off since 2015 and by 2020 there is still massive gap between the number of active accounts and the ones linked to a BVN.
“They capture with BVN, capture with SIM, capture with card reader, capture National ID, capture with drivers licence, capture with E-Passport, capture with N-Power, capture with NIN, capture with NHIS and the kidnappers are still capturing those that were captured,” Shehu Sani, a former senator said.
There are also concerns about how the directive impacts non-Nigerians who are already in the country and those who will be visiting the country.
Also, since NINs are National Identification Numbers, what happens to the non-Nigerians living in Nigeria? Will the SIM cards just be blocked too,” Modele Odele, a lawyer specialising in international law and human rights, asked.
Oluyomi Ojo, co-founder of Printivo, also agreed that the directive could affect visitors in Nigeria.
“Nigeria wants to curtail insecurity by mandating NIN registration on SIM cards. I fly into the US and buy a new line in 10 minutes, same thing in any country visited. All you need is your passport. Are we saying tourists can’t buy phone lines in Nigeria again,” he asked.
BusinessDay also found that it cost N20 per transaction to enquire for verification status using the *346# code owned by NIMC. Interestingly, the Commission will not send the result of the enquiry to the users’ phone, which leaves the potential for multiple attempts and charges.
Earlier on Wednesday when this reporter logged into a GTBank mobile app, the NIN was part of the numbers on display alongside BVN. However, hours later the NIN disappeared. This leaves the possibility that millions of Nigerians may soon be expected to queue at telco offices to verify or link their NIN. A message from MTN to a subscriber on Wednesday confirmed this. But experts say there are better ways to go about the verification and linking without necessarily causing hardship and inconvenience for millions of people.
“We need to allow more time for this to happen. I will be speaking with my colleagues on the Presidential Committee on Digital Identification about this,” Joe Abah, a member of the committee, said on Wednesday.
“I suggest that (NCC) issue a clarifying statement. The telcos should quietly link SIMs to existing NINs, just like banks quietly linked BVN to account numbers without stressing anybody. A proper process, funding and timeframe should then be put in place for @nimc_ng to register more,” Abah said.
To set off mass hysteria posing grave risks in a pandemic
The danger of large crowds rushing to beat the two-week deadline also increases the risk of spurring a more rapid spread of COVID-19.
That is particularly disturbing given the latest surge in new cases of the pandemic, which has prompted health experts to conclude that Nigeria is facing a second wave of the virus.
“I need to understand something. The CJN just tested positive for COVID-19. A number of Nigerian Army Generals just tested positive. So, why in God’s name are you giving instructions to make Nigerians crowd into places for NIN in the middle of a pandemic,” asked Cheta Nwanze, a public affairs commentator on his Twitter handle.
Nigeria is seeing a second wave of the coronavirus and in 15 days over 5,000 new cases have been recorded, bringing the total number of infections to over 73,000. On December 13, Nigeria recorded about 796 new cases higher than the peak infection recorded on July 1 of 790 cases, after lockdown measures were eased in major cities.
Following the death of the General Officer Commanding (GOC) 6 Division Port Harcourt, Johnson Irefin, the Nigerian Army said 26 of its personnel have tested positive for the virus. The Lagos State governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, and Ibrahim Tanko Muhammad, the chief justice of the Supreme Court, have all tested positive for the virus. Even the COVID-19 task force chairman, Boss Mustapha, is currently in isolation as his own family members have been sickened by the coronavirus.
Exposes government’s incompetence at data management
Besides COVID-19 concerns, Nigeria is awash with biometric data of its citizens. Many are stored in unsecured databases and are poorly used.
Bank customers must register for BVN, subscribers to various GSM networks are forced to surrender their biometric data to network operators, drivers submit their information to acquire driver licences, and many Nigerians hold international passports with their data and there are other state-led identification initiatives like the Lagos State Residents Registration.
“Never seen any government that’s collected so much data and yet use this for nothing. BVN, SIM biometric registration, NIN, etc, and yet you still want to collect NIN for a SIM that was registered through biometric? So much theatrical performance everywhere,” said Olumide Makunjuola on Twitter.
Some Nigerians are suggesting the NCC consolidate on this data.
“The telcos should quietly link SIMs to existing NINs, just like banks quietly linked BVN to account numbers without stressing anybody. A proper process, funding, and timeframe should then be put in place for NIMC,” suggested Joe Abah, governance and public policy reform advocate.
Meanwhile, the House of Representatives on Wednesday asked the NCC to extend the period for submission of NIN for update on SIM registration records from two to 10 weeks. The NCC had not officially reversed the directive as at the time of this publication.
This followed the amendment of a Motion of Urgent Public Importance which also mandated the House Committee on Communications to ensure compliance, sponsored by minority leader, Ndudi Elumelu, at plenary, who said the timing of the directive was wrong.
The lawmaker said he was “aware that at a stakeholders meeting convened on the 15th day of December 2020 by the Minister of Communications and Digital Economy, Dr Isa Patami, the federal government issued a statement signed by the director of public affairs NCC Ikechukwu Adinde, wherein it stated that any telecom subscriber who fails to submit his/her National Identity Number to its network provider would be blocked from the network with effect from December 31st 2020.”
He said he was “concerned that as laudable as the idea behind the policy may seem, the timing is very wrong because Nigerians have not been properly sensitized, as only a few educated persons who bother to read the dailies might have heard about this instructions.
“Therefore, trying to enforce this policy in a period where most Nigerians are gearing up for Christmas festivities may lead to stampede in the process of rushing to get registered which could lead to unnecessary death and injuries.”
He said he was “further concerned that if the NCC is allowed to carry out these directives, it will bring about untold hardship as millions of subscribers will be disconnected this yuletide period which could spell disaster in an already volatile nation like ours.
“Worried that if the NCC is not urgently called to halt their plans there may be unnecessary panic in the country which may lead to exploitation of vulnerable Nigerians, thereby causing more pains in an already pathetic situation, hence the need to urgently wade into this impending crisis.”
