According to the newly released Q2 GDP report by the National Bureau of Statistics, the electricity, gas, steam and air-conditioning supply sector recorded the slowest growth “as electricity output slowed during the quarter”. The contribution of the sector shrunk by 20.57% going by 2010 constant basic prices.
The category covers the provision of electric power, natural gas, steam and the likes, through the permanent infrastructure of lines, mains and pipes. It includes the operation of electric and gas utilities which generate, control and distribute electric power or gas. Also included is the provision of steam and air-conditioning supply.
Q2 2014 electricity output worth N111.69bn (at current prices) fell 10.56% from the corresponding quarter (Q2) of 2013 which stood at N124.89bn. Quarter-on-quarter, output fell by 8.84% from the first quarter of 2014.
September data from the ministry of power show that while 3,620.86 megawatts was generated, 3,552.34 megawatts was sent out.
Electricity generation this year has averaged between 3,500 and 2,500 megawatts. To date, the highest peak generated, which was back in December 2012 stood at 4,517.6 megawatts.
Ministry of power data also showed that although peak power demand forecast stands at 12,800 megawatts, peak generation for the period stood afar off at 3,887.90 megawatts, indicating that at best, only 30.3% of total power demand was met by the existing power supply capacity. The country’s total power generation capacity, which currently stands at 6,000 megawatts is still expected to grow to 40,000 megawatts by 2020.
This highlights the huge gap between power demand and power production and supply in Nigeria.
Though the power sector has undergone dramatic changes over time till now, key performance metrics are yet to indicate the accretion gained in the electricity sector.
Key challenges to electricity output continue to hover around gas shortages and supply-related bottle-necks for gas-fired plants, grid-limitations, and non-declaration of the Transitional Electricity Market (TEM) which has already served to stunt prospective investments in the sector.
“Investors and financiers are already reluctant to release funds because there is no TEM,” said Bismarck Rewane, chief executive officer, Financial Derivatives Company Limited, in an earlier interview.
Speaking while receiving a group of investors under the Enegas and Power/GE Consortium, Mohammed Wakil, minister of state for Power, said an inter-ministerial committee has been set up from the federal ministries of Power, Petroleum Resources and the Central Bank of Nigeria, to find lasting solution to the dearth of gas supply to the existing power plants, assuring that “the old crisis is over”.
In Lagos, local authorities estimate that the city, which generates 20 percent of Nigeria’s economic output, needs up to 20,000 MW of electricity, but only an average of 1,000 MW is delivered to the state from the national grid, when total output is above 4,000 MW.
Nigeria’s current per-capita electricity usage of 136 kilowatt hour (KWH) compares with an average per-capita electricity usage of 4,803 KWH in South Africa, which generates about 41,000 MW.
The Nigerian electricity market also continues to operate under a set of government interim rules five months after the planned launch of the transitional electricity market (TEM) was put on hold.
Edozie Ifebi
