The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has released the timetable and schedule of activities for the 2019 general elections and elevated political tensions could delay necessary policy adjustments and dampen investor and consumer confidence in Africa’s largest economy.
The electoral umpire had earlier scheduled February 16, 2019 for the Presidential and National Assembly elections and March 2, 2019 for the Governorship and state house of assembly poll respectively.
Addressing journalists in Abuja on Tuesday, INEC Chairman Mahmoud Yakubu, announced that activities for the polls will commence on August 17, 2018 while parties will conduct their primaries between August 18 and October 7, 2018.
According to him, campaign by political parties for the presidential and National Assembly elections will commence on November 18, 2018 and end on February 14, 2019, while that of governorship and state assemblies will begin from December 1, 2018 and end on February 28, 2019.
In the same token, last day for withdrawal by candidate(s)/replacement of withdrawn candidate(s) by political parties is November 17 for the Presidential and National Assembly elections and December 1 for governorship and state assembly polls.
Analysts say these periods are historically the ones when political correctness supersedes economic logic, government spending is misdirected and stokes price inflation and there is a reversal in foreign capital inflows as investors pause amid political uncertainty.
“Uncertainty in the build-up to 2019 general elections will exacerbate capital flow reversal, the war between the ruling party and the Villa kitchen cabinet will intensify and the party caucus will overrun the technocrats and presidential handlers,” said Bismarck Rewane, CEO of advisory firm, Financial Derivatives Company.
Demand for foreign exchange is also expected to spike on the back of huge capital expenditure, taking inflation with it, while ministries will intensify spending and contract awards, according to Rewane.
Also, “Look out for huge social intervention programs…and a shift from “anti-corruption to open season. Delays in implementing policy adjustments present major downside risk,” Rewane said.
The last day for the submission of nomination forms by political parties is December 3 for the Presidential and National Assembly elections and December 17 is for governorship and state assembly polls.
Details of the timetable which was made available to BusinessDay also revealed that January 7, 2019 is for publication of official register of voters, while January 2, 2019 is publication of Notice of Poll for all elections.
Similarly, publications of list of nominated candidates are billed for January 17, 2019 for the Presidential and National Assembly elections and January 31, 2019 for governorship and state assembly polls.
In like manner, submission of names of party agents is fixed for February 1 and 16, 2019 for the Presidential and National Assembly as well as governorship and state assembly polls respectively.
When President Muhammadu Buhari was elected in 2015, he promised to diversify Nigeria’s oil-reliant economy, create job opportunities and fight corruption.
The economy would be transformed, but not as the 74-year old had planned.
Nigeria slumped into its first economic recession in a quarter of a century last year. It brought business activity to a screeching halt even as Nigerians grew poorer and suffered massive lay-offs by private organisations hard hit by the economic lull.
Average per capital income slumped to a seven-year low of $2,171 in 2016, and will probably dip some 10 percent to $1,937, according to estimates by Renaissance Capital.
Unemployment hit a six-year high of 14 percent in the three months through December 2016, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
Enter 2017 and the economy is gradually turning the corner as Nigeria exited recession in Q2 2017 after five successive quarters of contraction, following a modest growth of 0.5 percent.
Yet there is still much work to be done and painful decisions to be made, whether it’s to achieve a convergence in the numerous fx rates, or to follow through on full liberalisation of the downstream petroleum sector.
The need to jettison a peg on the retail price of fuel (N145 per litre) has raged on amid the growing inability to sustain subsidy payments to petrol marketers.
In the power sector the reform process remains hamstrung with 10 National Independent Power Plants (NIPP) slated for privatisation yet to be sold.
The economy is also tipped by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to expand 0.8 percent in 2017, the slowest growth rate in 18 years.
However, scared to get political push back, Buhari is unlikely to move on any of these needed reforms any time soon, analysts say.
The president in December unveiled a large list of board appointees including 209 board chairmen and 1,258 board members, the largest set of appointments since he assumed office.
“At the point of our economy, it is illogical and not viable for a responsible government to be talking about appointments. I think we will get our fingers burnt if political patronage drives spending,” Chris Nwokobia, 2011 presidential candidate under the platform of Liberal Democratic Party of Nigeria (LDPN), told BusinessDay.
The INEC chairman disclosed that the Commission will conduct elections for 1,558 constituencies in 2019.
He gave the breakdown to include: one Presidential Constituency, 29 Govenorship constituencies, 109 Senatorial Districts, 360 Federal Constituencies, 991 State Assembly Constituencies, six Area Council Chairmen as well as 62 Councillorship positions for the FCT.
“The decision of the Commission to fix election dates is to engender certainty in our electoral calendar and to enable all stakeholders to prepare adequately for elections, as is the case in many mature and developing democracies.
“Already, the Commission has concluded its Strategic Plan and the Strategic Plan of Action for the current electoral cycle and beyond covering the period 2017-2021 as well as Election Project Plan. The Commission is moving away from the culture of quick fix, tire brigade approach to the management of elections in Nigeria.
“As our democracy matures, the planning and implementation of electoral activities should be predictable and systematic. This is all the more pertinent given the size and population of the country, the terrain, logistical requirements, the increasing number of political parties, security challenges and number of constituencies for which elections are to be held,” he said.
The development comes as the Commission announced that it will issue certificate of registration to 21 new political parties on Wednesday, January 10.
Yakubu also revealed that over 100 political associations have sought the permission of the Commission for registration as political parties.
With this development, the number of political parties in Nigeria has increased from 67 to 88.
OWEDE AGBAJILEKE, Abuja
