Ebola scourge, insurgency can hurt Nigeria’s robust economic outlook, says AfDB

Nigeria’s short-term economic outlook remains positive, but the country must work hard and fast to contain the recent incident of the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD).

The African Development Bank (AfDB) says if Ebola spreads and joins with the threat of the Boko Haram insurgency in parts of the north, where most agricultural produce originate, it can cause much additional economic damage.

In Nigeria, 12 persons are confirmed infected with Ebola, while 198 are under surveillance.

Sierra Leone, Guinea and Liberia put together have had 1,963 cases of infection, with 1,066 deaths from the disease.

AfDB projects that Nigeria’s economic growth could stay robust at over 6 percent in 2014 and 2015, essentially driven by agriculture, trade and services, but now fears that with the Ebola disease already in Lagos, Nigeria’s largest business city, the pandemic could particularly slow trade as already seen in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea, where the scourge is prevalent.

President Goodluck Jonathan had approved a special intervention plan and immediate release of N1.9 billion to further strengthen ongoing steps to fight the Ebola virus.

He said the N1.9 billion would be used to intensify measures to contain the spread of the disease such as establishment of more isolation centres, case management, contact tracing, recruiting additional personnel, screening at the borders and procurement of required items and facilities.

The country’s effort to combat the spread of the deadly virus got further support from businessman philanthropist, Aliko Dangote, with the announcement of N152,956,250 from Dangote Foundation for the establishment of a National Ebola Emergency Operations Centre (EOC) at Yaba, Lagos.

The EOC is a key part of Nigeria’s response to the outbreak of Ebola on its shores. Headed by Faisal Shuaib, a US-trained public health expert with extensive international experience, the centre serves as the engine room of national response, providing coordinating mechanism for prevention, surveillance, patient care, tracking, data analysis and containment of the spread of the virus.

It also facilitates coordination of partners, serves as a platform to link to the medical community across the country and also internationally, especially with countries also battling the virus in West Africa.

“The Ebola EOC ensures that government continues to provide the necessary leadership and a transparent platform for the coordination and collaboration which are essential for us to stay on top of this crisis,” said Onyebuchi Chukwu, minister of health.

Ousmane Dore, AfDB country director in Nigeria, told BusinessDay that the risks to the country’s outlook were certainly not just on the external development, where global recovery has yet to be consolidated, but that more critical were some domestic factors, including security.

“We believe and estimate that growth will be over 6 percent for 2014/2015 on the average. We also do believe that this growth will be essentially driven by agriculture, trade and services, as these are sectors that have been the key elements in sustaining Nigeria’s economic transformation over the last decade,” Dore said.

“But on the trade side and even services, there would be some threats like the insurgency, and the Ebola disease,” he added.

Dore said these were factors that just have to be dealt with, adding that if, for instance, the insurgency was not contained, it would affect the agricultural trade in the north and in certain parts of the country which could affect the bank’s projections on economic outlook as well as trade inflows and outflows.

“So these are the risks, but we do not know how much impact for now, we cannot access them, but we say some policies must have to be put in place so that these risks can be contained,” he said.

Onyinye Nwachukwu