Like captives in dire need of freedom, Nigerians resident in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja, Lagos and Ogun States who have been on lockdown ordered by the Federal Government are looking forward to tomorrow, Monday, May 4, 2020 with uncommon optimism.
These residents can also be likened to soldiers quietly coming out of their bunker, fully aware of lurking danger of enemies in an ambush. From tomorrow, these locked down Nigerians will begin a gradual return to business following the relaxation of the lockdown as promised by President Muhammadu Buhari during his third nationwide broadcast on Monday, April 27, 2020.
After five straight weeks of being forced to stay at home as part of measures to curtail further spread of the dreaded coronavirus, these hapless Nigerians are optimistic that in line with government’s gradual easing of the lockdown, they will start going to their offices and shops once again.
But that optimism is one laced with caution and apprehension. The day itself will be an acid test to the courage of many who ordinarily would not dare but for the need to breathe air of freedom.
Freedom is priceless and in all ages people cherish freedom not for its own sake, but for the end it is used to achieve. Some people hardly realise the value of the freedom they have until they are confined, in which case the freedom is taken away forcefully from them.
This explains why the five-week lockdown means different things for different people. While some people see it as a form of punishment spewed out by the government to squeeze them to death, many others see it as a worthwhile measure aimed at saving them from an invisible enemy.
To the later group, though good, this coming day of freedom is one they hope for with caution and trepidation. The fear and caution are not out of place because, according to Mike Ejiofor, former director of State Security Service (SSS), “everybody and everything, including security and road challenges, had been on lockdown. Now, all of them will be out on May 4. It is going to be a chaotic situation in the first three days.”
Ejiofor said that the greatest challenge is that the lockdown is being relaxed at a time when the number of confirmed cases are spiking, posing a huge risk to all stakeholders including the government, the security agencies who will be enforcing safety guidelines, health workers and the people themselves.
To Daniel Eshiet, a self-employed electrical and electronics engineer, who described the lockdown as the five longest and most tortuous weeks of his life, “it is good that government has decided to embark on gradual easing of the lockdown, but like many other Nigerians in this mess, my fear and concerns remain.”
Thompson Okpoko, a Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN), agrees, noting however, that at no time has government been in a more critical dilemma than it is today. The decision to ease the lockdown, especially in Lagos and Abuja, must have been a tough and difficult one given that these are the ones with highest number of confirmed cases.
The two cities, Lagos and Abuja are the most strategic destinations in Nigeria as commercial and administrative capitals respectively. Arguably, Lagos is a mini-Nigeria just like William Shakespeare would say, “There are no Verona Walls without the Caplets” (Romeo & Juliet).
Whichever way one looks at the present situation, one sees that the government is really in a difficult situation because, while the government is alarmed at the daily rise in the number of confirmed cases and even deaths, the people are complaining of hunger and the economy is dying gradually.
Nigerians have, in the last one month, seen frightening rise in the number of confirmed cases and even deaths from the deadly virus. From a total of 174 confirmed cases, nine discoveries and two deaths on April 1, 2020, the numbers have galloped to 1,932 confirmed cases, 319 recoveries and 58 deaths on April 30. Indeed, the month ended with 209 cases which is the highest number recorded so far.
In its apparent confusion, the government wants to save the people and also save the economy which is why, according to Okpoko, “it had to strike a very delicate balance between the need to remove the restriction so that people can get what they can eat and the need to restrict and prevent further spread of the virus.”
But, however tight the situation is, both the government and the people have to be cautious in their hope. It is clear from the body language of the government that it is being ruled by fear. Government is as concerned about public health as it is about the economy which, indeed, is not misplaced.
Nigeria needs good public health, but having a sound, functioning economy is also a good thing.
But as many countries including Nigeria, prepare to ease the lockdown, they should consider the events in countries that have just lifted their restrictions. For instance, Ghana, which eased three weeks lockdown in major cities of the country on April 20, 2020, cited progress made in containing the virus and impact on the poor and vulnerable as reasons for the action.
Unfortunately, from 1,043 cases record as at April 19, 2020, Ghana has 1,671 cases as at April 30, 2020, implying an increase of over 600 new cases within 10 days. A day before easing the lockdown on April 30, 2020, South Africa reported 354 new cases, the highest number of cases in a 24-hour cycle, and a 73 percent increase on the day before, the health department said in a tweet. The country is now seeing spike in the numbers with 5,350 cases as at April 30, 2020.
Germany is also regretting easing the lockdown as infection rate, which sank as low as 0.7 since mid-April has started inching up again after the easing. With 156,337 cases, Germany fears that one person could infect 1.1 others making the country to reach the limit of its health system before October.
The country is mulling a new round of lockdown with decision to be taken May 6, 2020. Going by Germany’s experience, it seems better to endure the pains of the lockdown than to open the doors to more deaths in the land.
Obviously, the spike in the number of new cases should give grave concerns to countries at the verge of easing their lockdown.
Moreover, if they fail to learn from the spikes across countries after easing restrictions, then history will sadly repeat itself.
The influenza pandemic of 1918 is a case study. The 12,000 people who died within six weeks, would have lived if the rally for Fourth Liberty Loan Drive where 200,000 people gathered to celebrate an impending allied victory in World War did not hold. Despite the increased infiltration of the disease among the civilian population, medical officers and government allowed the parade to hold resulting in the affliction of an estimated 45,000 Philadelphians with the influenza in week before the huge death toll in six weeks.
This is exactly the precarious situation the world is in today with the decision to ease lockdown now and reap deaths, or tighten further to save lives.
Also, the Great Plague of Marseille in 1720 proved that relaxing the guards now can cause the world its peace as it did in some centuries ago in Marseille, France.
Like most governments now who are lifting restrictions to aid the economy recovery, in 1720, the deputy mayor of Marseille lifted the quarantine on a ship at the port in Marseille to ‘help the economy’, but at the peril of the inhabitants.
According to history, a strange infection was killing people on the ship and it was quarantined. But the government of Marseille felt they could not afford to lose all the valuable goods on the ship as it would destroy the economy, hence lifted the quarantine to save the economy.
Sadly, as they lifted the quarantine and moved the goods into the city of Marseille, they moved in the infection, many got infected and 100,000 people died, more than half of Marseille. It is like 10 million people dying in Lagos just because of taking the wrong decision.
Are governments across the world taking wrong decisions in easing the lockdown?
But this may have come at a cost, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO). Tedros Ghebreyesus, WHO director-general, noted that countries should ensure they have the capacity to detect, test, isolate and care for any confirmed cases as they ease restrictions.
“Lifting so-called lockdown restrictions is not the end of the epidemic in any country, it’s just the beginning of the next phase,” he said.
Amina Musa, a telecom engineer, decried that with the spike in Lagos and Kano and new cases in states that have no case before now, she expected the Federal Government to extend the lockdown for another two weeks with stricter compliance.
“I was hoping for a national lockdown because the country cannot afford to handle huge numbers when the pandemic spreads like wildfire across the country. The rising cases in Ghana and South Africa should warn us from relaxing too soon”, she alarmed.
Toeing same line, Emeka Onyenonachi, a commercial lawyer, noted that despite the pains and sufferings, especially by the masses during the lockdown, the best decision would be extension as that is the only way to cut the curve and reduce the spread of the virus.
“We are all, suffering the impact of the lockdown. I think government should extend it beyond May 2 going by the spike and realities in countries that have eased the lockdown. But government should look out for the poor and cushion the impact while extending it”, he said.
As well, Willie Boatah, a Ghanaian businessman, faults his president’s decision to ease the lockdown on April 20th.
“The President’s announcement was a surprise to me because I was expecting an extension following a spike in the number of confirmed cases across the country. Now the numbers are rising again and they may reconsider their decision on easing the lockdown”, Boatah said.
Meanwhile, the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, the body that co-ordinates pandemic responses across the continent, has confirmed that the lockdowns have played a role in reducing new cases in Africa.
“Without the lockdown, we would have seen a more explosive outbreak,” John Nkengasong, director of the centre, disclosed.
According to him, it is not just the lockdown itself, but also what else you do during that period.
“You intensify your testing, your isolation and your contact tracing so that when you unlock the system at least you have created a huge impact on the virus spread.”
On the reason for the spike in places where lockdown has been eased, Matshidiso Moeti of the WHO said that, “We have observed that physical distancing, including the prohibition of mass gatherings, took some time to happen”.
Sam Amadi, a senior lecturer with Baze University, in Abuja, said: “There is credible fear that we might see a spike in the number of infection. First, we should note that we are ramping up testing. This means that we will have more cases. More tests generally mean more cases. The difference is the rate of infection.”
“So, we will see a lot more cases in the future whether we unlock or continue to lockdown. The issue is whether the unlocking will aggravate the rate of infection. I think the answer is yes. We will see a lot more infection primarily because the social distancing rule and other preventive measures are more difficult to enforce when people return to normal business and social life. Is that policy the right one in the present circumstances? Well, many people take different views,” he said.
According to him, “We can argue that perhaps, we could have left the lockdown for more weeks to further observe the spread of the disease. But the problem is that our increase in testing is too slow because of logistics and resources constraints. So, locking down will mean that people will suffer endlessly. The NCDC is projecting three months of testing. Will you lockdown till three months? Impossible! The truth is that lockdown is almost a deathly option for very poor countries and those that don’t have strong systems of social security.”
Executive Director of the Civil Society Legislative Advocacy Centre (CISLAC), Ibrahim Auwal Musa Rafsanjani, lamented that there was no scientific research done in Nigeria to establish whether the lockdown had hindered the spread or is even helping the spread of the virus.
“So, the easing of the lockdown and the lockdown has not been scientifically and medically proven in Nigeria; we are only copying what other countries are doing,” he said, adding that the Nigerian health system is struggling with the pandemic because of the protracted corruption in the Nigerian health system.
“What has happened in Nigeria is that because of the protracted corruption and mismanagement in the health care system Nigeria is not proud to talk about its own initiative, its own efforts because they have corrupted the healthcare system,” he said.
Rafsanjani however, enjoined government to ensure that no mass gathering is taking place in all the states and in all the local governments and in the communities. He tasked Nigerians to imbibe sanitary and healthy living and wear the masks, practise social distancing and avoid large gatherings.
Contributing, the Executive Director of Civil Liberties Organisation (CLO) Ibuchukwu Ezike, told BDSUNDAY that the nation could not have coped with another option of lockdown, saying, “no sane and conscientious person would have suggested extension of the lockdown.”
He noted that coping with pandemic has been a difficult and serious issue, more so, as the government and its institutions are weak, not coordinated and not committed to serious business of good governance.
“If we should be able to address this big challenge, the NCDC, Presidential Task Force, medical personnel, especially those in the public health institutions, including retired but not tired ones both federal and state, should be recalled and moved into the field. Duty posts should be established in strategic places in all the states say, for example, at market and office gates, and in all places where there is mass movement of people where these medical officers will be running tests on the people as they pass,” Ezike said.
“This is how it is done in most places in the world where successes against coronavirus are being recorded. China is a typical instance in this case. All para-security agents like neighborhood watch, forest guards, Boys’ Scout, Girls’ Guide, Man O’ War etc should be mobilised to assist in this emergency. Like I said earlier, it is a herculean task but with this and other credible approaches that other Nigerians and government would propose, if judiciously executed, will help us out,” he added.
