It’s with the same vengeance that 45-year-old small business owner James Kenneth (not real name) voted out Goodluck Jonathan in 2015 that he plans to boot out President Muhammadu Buhari at next month’s elections.
Kenneth voted for Buhari in 2015 with a lot of optimism that the 75-year-old would rid the country of the widespread corruption that festered under the then President Jonathan and create enough jobs for a teeming youth population.
But four years in, a receding economy, heightened poverty levels and record job losses have left Kenneth regretting his decision, as is the case with most of Buhari’s staunchest supporters from the last election.
A notable big name to have since denounced Buhari in the wake of his mismanagement of the economy is former President Olusegun Obasanjo.
Kenneth, like a lot of other business owners, has suffered from a flailing economy that when it hasn’t contracted, has expanded at a rate below population growth since 2015.
There are no obvious answers to the impact of the government’s rising debt stock which has tripled from 2014 to N24 trillion in 2018.
Corporate profits are down nearly threefold on average and jobs slashed by the most in over a decade, as weak purchasing power takes a toll on demand and businesses scramble to cut costs.
As a response to the economic downturn, President Buhari plans to expand his social intervention programmes and fight corruption if re-elected.
Meanwhile, the presidential candidate of the main opposition party, Atiku Abubakar, plans to run a leaner government and harness private capital to deliver a $1 trillion economy if elected president.
Expectedly, Atiku’s preference for a private sector-led economy has won him the support of business owners, similar to how French President Emmanuel Macron endeared himself to businesses with a lengthy list of pro-business policies aimed at boosting economic growth. Chances are, however, that Atiku may not win, with the power of incumbency and continued strong support from the highly populated North West, giving Buhari the upper hand against Atiku.
The thought of a Buhari re-election is a nightmare for business leaders, who fear the economy could be on the brink of a second recession in five years.
“Another four years of Buhari’s statist policies will kill the economy, assuming there’s still some life left in the economy after a tumultuous first term,” said Ogho Okiti, CEO, Time Economics, who spoke to BusinessDay on the sidelines of a gathering of business leaders, Wednesday.
“Most business leaders would prefer an Atiku victory which would bring some relief to the economy given his pro-market leaning,” Okiti said.
Atiku’s support among business leaders was evident at the business gathering where he was greeted with resounding applauses for his plans to privatise key sectors of the economy and the opaque state-owned oil firm, Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), as well as invest in education and healthcare.
“Atiku’s promise to carry out far-reaching privatisation exercises was music to the ears of investors,” said Johnson Chukwu, CEO of financial advisory firm, Cowry Assets.
“The current government has not done enough to give investors that type of confidence,” Chukwu said.
Economic reforms have stalled under Buhari. Legislative attempts to reform the oil and gas sector have been undermined by the president, the downstream oil sector and power sector still long for market-reflective tariffs and there has been no significant privatisation since Eleme Petrochemical in 2008.
The lack of reforms has put a cap on economic growth and worsened the social crisis in Nigeria, which replaced India as the poverty capital of the world in 2018, according to the World Poverty clock.
While speaking at the gathering, Atiku said he was too impatient to see in his lifetime the kind of economic and social development capable of drastically cutting the prevalence of poverty in Africa’s most populous nation.
“When I go around to campaigns and see these unemployed youths, I am scared. It is a time bomb waiting to explode and the work to resolve this crisis must be done speedily,” the candidate told leaders of the private sector.
Atiku also continued to criticise the policies of the Godwin Emefiele-led central bank, in a signal that Emefiele, whose tenure expires this June, could fail to get a second term if 72-year-old Atiku wins at the February polls.
Atiku has not been shy to criticise the central bank’s policy on foreign exchange and has promised to abolish the current multiple exchange rate system. He says it deters foreign direct investment.
Atiku along with his running mate Peter Obi were subjected to questions from the audience at Wednesday’s gathering and from a team led by Opeyemi Agbaje, CEO at Lagos-based RTC Advisory Services.
Atiku said he would not appoint himself petroleum minister if elected into office, but vowed to vigorously push the privatisation of NNPC and a number of other government assets which have been suboptimal in their performance over years.
“The job of making Nigeria work again is not rocket science. I have done it before,” he said.
The PDP presidential candidate said he would not appoint to his government anyone without the requisite skill to do the job, adding, “I do not have as many relations as the current president. I am the only child and you will not find my relations taking jobs in my administration to the detriment of competent Nigerians.”
The candidate attracted wide applause when he said he would never appoint someone he cannot learn something from.
Atiku said the National Health Insurance Scheme which was established while he was vice president had failed because of corruption and vowed that he would outsource the management of the scheme to the private sector.
He also responded to questions on what he will do to restructure the country. First, he said his administration would convene an urgent meeting with state governors and the national assembly at which he would offer to relinquish all items on the concurrent list of the constitution to the states, along with the fiscal provision if the governors have no objection, and then begin negotiation over the items on the exclusive list.
Obi, in one of the several interventions made, said the administration of Atiku Abubakar would prioritise support for the nation’s 37 million small and medium-size businesses and seek to broaden access to credit for them as a major plank of its job creation strategy.
LOLADE AKINMURELE
