With the scarcity of seats occasioned by the grounding of MAX 8 aircraft across the world on March 13, 2019, Nigerians travelling to various destinations for holiday this summer season are facing difficulty getting flight bookings.
The scarcity of seats has led to a spike in fares because demand for seats now outstrips supply. This is expected to make summer vacation plans a lot more expensive. Some travel agencies see airfares eventually rising by about 20 percent, while others think the fares may double in some routes with high impact of the suspension, especially the Americas and Asia where Max 8 had been deployed most economically by airlines.
The 737 MAX, which grounded globally in March after an Ethiopian Airlines flight crash that killed all 157 people on board, was the most sold model with 5,011 firm orders and 375 aircraft delivered. The Ethiopian Airlines crash was model’s second deadly crash in five months.
The development has since seen airlines reschedule their flights as passengers who booked tickets months back are experiencing delays and cancellations of flights, with airlines unable to keep up with planned schedules.
But the situation is getting worse as summer bookings improve across the world, said Olanma Ojukwu, chief executive officer, GOTA Travels.
The US carriers’ trade group, Airlines for America, estimates that a record 257.4 million people will fly from June 1 through the end of August 2019, the tenth consecutive summer increase. Those throngs – totaling on average 2.8 million people each day – will confront two unique challenges: the possible reassignment of hundreds of aviation security personnel to the Mexican border, and the continued worldwide grounding of Boeing’s 737 Max, the trade group said.
Passengers should, therefore, expect their summer vacation plans to get a lot more expensive, Ojukwu said.
BusinessDay’s checks show that even though the aircraft type was not operating in Nigeria prior to its grounding, passengers travelling from Nigeria and connecting flights in other countries are also affected by the development.
“We started experiencing tougher times in our travel plans this past April,” Ojukwu said. “The preferred airline for my clients who go for the annual pilgrimage in Israel gave us options of two days earlier arrival or two days later arrival and it spoilt all our plans because our clients were faced with additional payments for two days hotel accommodations. Some could not get permission to travel later or earlier than scheduled all because of the scarcity of seats.”
Ikechi Uko, Nigerian travel business consultant, told BusinessDay that the grounding of the Boeing MAX would definitely affect the summer holidays.
“You cannot pull out 375 aircraft with no replacement and expect nothing to happen. 210 seats multiplied by 375 is a large number of seats. The aircraft were profit makers for regional airlines and routes,” Uko said.
Although some industry watchers say they do not expect the scarcity of seats to affect trips across most of Africa this summer, Mitchell Ojewale, a travel agent, explained that some trips within Africa which were done with the Max 8 are now transferred to other aircraft types that are fuel-guzzling, resulting in higher fares on such trips.
“Ethiopian Airlines is no longer flying the Max 8 on its medium range routes, especially within East Africa, but Nigerian travellers who are visiting Nairobi, Dar es Salam, Kigali, among others are already paying more on same routes with other aircraft types provided by Ethiopian Airlines on the same routes and others for precaution sake,” Ojewale said.
Airlines are expected to be robustly profitable during the summer season, a period when heavy demand keeps fares higher and planes fuller than during other times of the year. But this year, all bets are off.
Regulators are still investigating the safety of the 737 Max following two crashes within five months that killed a total of 346 people. Three of the four largest US carriers are grappling with how to cover their busy summer schedules with the loss of six dozen Boeing Co. 737 Max aircraft. The lack of those planes which many airlines purchased to be their new workhorse of the skies adds further pressure to carriers and customers at a time when the air travel system traditionally operates at full throttle.
American Airlines Group Inc., Southwest Airlines Co. and United Continental Holdings Inc. have removed the Max from their schedules through August, leaving thousands of passenger flights to be covered at a time of year when virtually no seats fly empty. Canada’s two largest airlines also have 37 Max aircraft between them.
Last week, United said it would cancel 2,410 flights in June and July due to the grounding as it extended its Max-free schedule to August 3. Southwest, the largest Max operator with 34, has put August 5 on its schedule as a placeholder for the Max’s return to the fleet; American has set August 19, the date that carrier sets as the unofficial close of its peak season. American said the Max grounding is causing 115 daily flight cancellations; Southwest has about 4,000 daily flights but hasn’t detailed how many daily cancellations it sees this summer due to the troubled plane.
If the regulators approve the corrections done by Boeing, Uko said, then American Airlines would start by August, but other countries may approve and join later.
“Knowing what I know of Donald Trump‘s America, once American Airlines start flying the Max, all other countries in Europe will join except China and Africa,” he added.
To cushion the effect of the pullout of these aircraft, he said some airlines are partnering to ensure most of their scheduled flights operate.
Bernard Bankole, president, National Association of Nigerian Travel Agents (NANTA), however, said Nigerians are already facing difficulty going to the United States with visa constraints and flight cancellations and are making alternative plans to visit other destinations for summer.
“No doubt, Nigerians often go to the US for summer but that narrative is changing this year. People are now moving to Dubai, Middle East and Canada for summer, while US is gradually losing out,” Bankole said.
“We are still having good sales for summer. You cannot stop people from moving. People are beginning to move elsewhere aside from the US as a result of the visa constraints. In the long run, this development will affect US GDP, especially at a time when every country is promoting their destination,” he said.
OBINNA EMELIKE & IFEOMA OKEKE
