Nigeria was a promising nation at independence in 1960, but rudderless leadership and poor economic management have manacled a country that was once one of world’s biggest exporters of palm oil, leather, groundnuts and cocoa.
Part of the leadership crisis arose as a result of military incursions into Nigerian politics. Thankfully, the country returned to civil rule in 1999 after nearly three decades of intermittent military rule.
Since the return to civil rule 21 years ago, Nigeria has oscillated from one political trouble to another. In the area of organising elections, it has fared badly. Economy-wise, it has been a tale of dashed hopes and shattered aspirations.
Two credible polls since 1999
Apart from the 1999 and 2015 general elections that brought into power Olusegun Obasanjo and Muhammadu Buhari, respectively, the outcome of other elections has been largely questionable.
In 1999, the voting masses enthusiastically went to the poll to end the long years of military occupation of power stool. That accounted for the overwhelming turnout. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) stated that about 30,280,052 valid votes were recorded with 431,611 non-valid votes.
In 1999, while Obasanjo, candidate of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), garnered 18,738,154 (62.78 percent), Olu Falae of the Alliance for Democracy/All People’s Party polled 11,110,287 (37.22 percent).
The outcome of the 2015 election could also be said to be a reflection of the wishes of voters as many Nigerians appeared to have grown weary of the style of the Goodluck Jonathan administration and wanted a change by every means possible. It was not surprising, therefore, when INEC announced that Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) polled 15,424,921 (53.96 percent) and Jonathan, who was seeking a second term on the PDP platform, scored 12,853,162 (44.96 percent).
Election fixing and role of ‘mafias’
In order to perpetuate itself in power, the PDP had adopted “win-at-all-cost” strategy. Within its first four years in power, the umbrella party had given birth to members of a cabal, power brokers, godfathers and mafias on political turf. These elements determined who got what. Election results were “fixed”. Those were the days when the late Anthony Anenih, a former police chief, bestrode the corridors of power like a colossus. In many cases, elections had pre-determined results. There were allegations of election results written inside hotel rooms. The late Anenih regaled in the euphoria of the sobriquet “Mr. Fix It”. Between 2003 and 2010, Anambra State, for instance, was a battleground as the powers that be at the federal level were said to have willed the state to some enfant-godfathers.
Emergence of emergency leaders
Since 1999, unprepared persons have continued to emerge as leaders at various levels of political leadership positions in the country, according to political analysts. These unprepared elements are rigged into office by godfathers in the hope that they will only act as figure heads, and Nigerians have been paying dearly for it.
For instance, despite his health condition that was known to some leaders of the PDP, even to those that drafted him into the race, the late Umaru Musa Yar’Adua was rigged into office in 2007. Yar’Adua had also admitted before the former United Nations Secretary General, Ban-Ki Moon, that the process through which he became the president of Nigeria was faulty.
Former President Jonathan also said that the results of the 2007 presidential election that produced the late Yar’Adua as president and himself as vice president had caused him a lot of embarrassment.
“Although we took oath of office and the Supreme Court declared us winners, but each time one travelled abroad, people asked all kinds of questions that even got one angry. That was when I promised myself that if have an opportunity to oversee elections in Nigeria, no other president or vice president should suffer that can kind of harassment and embarrassment by the international community,” Jonathan said.
The charade continues
The influence of godfathers across the country has continued to make nonsense of the nation’s elections, whether at the national, state or local level. Today, elections are won or lost by mere endorsement or otherwise of godfathers. The voting masses are no more the determinants of electoral victories or otherwise. In the last general election, Akinwunmi Ambode, a former governor of Lagos State, was rejected at the party’s primary allegedly on the orders of Bola Ahmed Tinubu, a former governor of the state and national leader of the ruling APC. Since 1999, Tinubu has had his hands in every pie, even beyond Lagos, his immediate constituency. He has allegedly singlehandedly determined the fortunes or otherwise of every politician in the state. In fact, he is said to firmly control the political, economic and traditional life of the state. At a point, his influence extended beyond Lagos as he was known to have installed almost all the governors in the South West geo-political zone.
The 2019 general election has been adjudged by various organisations as the worst in the history of Nigeria. Voters were chased away from polling units by armed thugs in army and police uniform, ballot boxes were burnt or carted away, and many voters were injured while a few were killed.
Concerns mount over unbridled activities of godfathers
Analysts have raised concerns that Nigeria’s democracy is in peril with the goings-on in the political firmament of the country.
In a recent interview with BDSUNDAY, Obinna Chidoka, representing Idemili North and South Federal Constituency of Anambra in the House of Representatives, said the APC has crafted and developed a very dangerous template in running elections.
“It uses external forces to manipulate the elections. It was a template that happened in Kogi and Bayelsa State which also happened in the last election in Osun State where, of course, they also developed this dangerous trend. And in Kogi State it was a different matter altogether because you saw the number of deaths that took place there; you saw the violence that took place there, the amount of rigging and over-voting that took place there,” Chidoka alleged.
“So, if you look at what has happened in Kogi and Bayelsa State, the dangerous template of trying to win elections at all cost, whether by violence or over-voting; by everything that is out of the norm, out of the books, the future of democracy in this country is threatened by this dangerous trend,” he said.
The beat is on in Edo
Oshiomhole, in the twilight of his eight-year tenure as Edo State governor, had pledged that the day he leaves office, he would never interfere or distract whoever governs afterwards.
“My greatest achievements are not roads or red roofs. My greatest achievement is my victory over the godfathers in the state. I want to be remembered for ending it and killing it,” Oshimhole had said.
“A situation where one man decides has been abolished. All I want is power to move to the people. The people should decide who becomes their leader and that leader will not be answerable to any godfather, but to them,” he had said.
However, in the lead-up to the party governorship primary election slated for June 22, Adams Oshiomhole, APC national chairman, has apparently drawn the battle-line with his successor, Obaseki, scheming to see the incumbent governor lose his return bid.
But this has not gone down well with many stakeholders in the state who see the ploy to undo Obaseki as a threat to Nigeria’s democratic experiment and an attempt to scare private-sector player away from politics.
“Some time ago, we were looking for private sector people that should go into politics. Obaseki left his flourishing business to contribute his quota in the development of Edo on political platform. Now, people are saying they do not want him to complete eight years, for no just reason other than that he does not allow them and their cronies to continue to plunder the state. It is really annoying. Nobody is saying Obaseki has not performed well, but that he doesn’t allow them to chop. That is nonsense,” a big player in the oil industry said recently.
“I don’t get it when people say Obaseki cannot get a second term unless he sees this and that person; does it mean the electorates no longer have a role to play in who gets victory at elections? If they are people of integrity as they trumpet, they should allow a level playing field and let people compete on equal footing,” he said, asking not to be named.
An economy buffeted by poor management
Agriculture was the mainstay of the Nigerian economy after Independence. Leather, hides and skins were exported from Aba and Kano to Europe and the United States. The economy was strong, but it was largely undiversified because the country merely depended on agricultural products. By 1999, however, attention to the agricultural sector had all but disappeared as oil took the centre-stage as the main revenue earner for the government.
Between 1999 and 2007, Nigeria had some of its worst elections in history. But the years also ushered in the growth of the cement industry, producing some billionaires in cement, and oil and gas. But many subsectors of the manufacturing sector were neglected. Like others before it, the government failed to tailor its education system to the needs of industry. However, the government set up the Excess Crude Account to protect budgets against shortfalls caused by crude oil volatilities. The global financial crisis forced oil price to decline from $147 per barrel in July 2008 to $50 by November. The capital market had been on a bubble before the crisis, but the crisis worsened its fate, with its capitalisation falling from N12.1 trillion in late March 2008 to less than half in March 2009.
The situation, coupled with lack of enthusiasm by the Umar Musa Yar’Adua administration, created some economic crisis. Manufacturing growth rate fell from 11 percent to 3.5 percent in 2009 while capacity utilisation in industries followed the same trajectory, falling from 70 percent to 34 percent, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria Bulletin. As the cost of production was rising, the government introduced Cargo Tracking Note, raising production costs higher. The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) said in 2009 that 839 firms shut down that year. Within this period, policies on automotive industry, palm oil, rubber, cocoa and other non-oil export products were never implemented religiously.
The Goodluck Jonathan’s administration started the rice revolution, though the policy was grossly abused. It brought about agriculture revolution, supporting thousands of young people in agriculture through YouWin and Yeap programmes. Oil price rose to over $100 per barrel in the administration, but questions have been asked about what the windfall brought to Nigeria. It built the Abuja-Kaduna rail and completed many abandoned road projects. Unemployment was about 6.75 percent by third quarter of 2014 while Nigerians were said to be the happiest people on earth. But it was accused of incompetence and condoning economic corruption.
The Muhammadu Buhari government that came after has focused on agriculture, especially rice. It has supported millions of farmers through the Anchor Borrowers Scheme and social intervention funds. However, the country became world’s poverty capital under its watch, with 87 million people in extreme poverty. Unemployment is 23.1 percent and misery index is over 40 percent. But oil price has fluctuated to $30 to $60 per barrel, pushing the government to the brink. But questions are being asked about the quality of appointees in the current administration.
