2015 wears toga of wasted year

Seven months into the current year, many Nigerians have become apprehensive that political activities could overshadow economic matters, a situation that is capable of hampering individual and family developments.

Those who spoke with BD SUNDAY were particularly agitated that five months to the end of the year, the country appeared directionless. The feeling of apprehension was fuelled by the recent announcement that President Muhammadu Buhari may not constitute his cabinet till September, and this was considered a kill-joy with the apparent lack of definite economic direction by the administration.

Observers said that since November 2014 when electioneering campaigns kicked off, government had given less attention to the business of governance, a situation they observed had left many Nigerians disillusioned.

The waiting game has continued for both foreign and local investors, who are skeptical about engaging in new businesses until they see the economic thrust of the new government.
Throughout the first half of the year, investors kept their money back from Nigeria, due to political risks and uncertainties that could arise from the elections, eventually held in March 28 and April 11.

Having avoided the political risk, given the peaceful outcome of the elections, investors feel that the new government’s dithering on decision-making and economic direction could prove too costly for them and waste the entire business year.

Remi Bello, president, Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, captured the mood of investors thus: “At this time, we eagerly await President Buhari’s economic blueprint that would define the policy direction of his administration. This is important for policy clarity, strategic planning, investment decisions and confidence.”

Bello said major business decisions have been put on hold over the past six months because of the political risk associated with a transition regime, adding that the first half of the year was characterised by profound uncertainty which slowed down the momentum of economic activities in the country.

“This new political dispensation offers a great opportunity to bring about the desired change in all facets of our national life – the economy, social sector, quality of life, value orientation and governance quality,” he said.

Nigeria’s economy reels under the heavy weight of revenue crash, triggered off by crude oil price slump, prompting over 18 states to owe workers’ salaries for periods between three and nine months.

The country faces over $300 billion infrastructure gap, rising unemployment and a sub-optimal level of capital formation of 15 percent as against 18 percent in Brazil and 26 percent in Malaysia.

In 2008, external reserves were put at $60 billion, but the reserves have depleted to slightly above $30 billion. Exports have crashed from $97 billion in 2011 to $57 billion, while the country is facing exchange rate volatility amid increasingly weaker naira.

Some analysts see delays in appointment as an expensive mistake, stressing that it is the minister that actually gives policy direction, rather than permanent secretaries who have limited operations and constitutional assignments.

Benjamin Chuka Osisioma, professor of accounting and public affairs analyst, told BD SUNDAY that even though the first six months have passed without much economic activity, he does not consider 2015 a wasted year.

“I do not subscribe to this. But I also feel the new president needs to move from making statements to walking the talk,” Osisioma said.

He also wondered why the National Assembly crises would continue, particularly for the All Progressives Congress that rode to power on the ‘change’ mantra.

Patrick Oaikhinan, professor of ceramics engineering and organiser of 2014 International Ceramics Trade Fair, said Buhari seems to have been hampered by problems in the National Assembly and that of his party.

The maritime sector of the economy is also reeling under the slow pace of decision-making in the present dispensation. For instance, had the government been up and running, some of the multiple government agencies sacked from the nation’s seaports by the immediate past government as a result of nefarious activities are beginning are creeping back.

BD SUNDAY gathered that the development has made cargo clearance at the port to become very cumbersome for Nigerian importers and their agents owing to the delays emanating from the involvement of these agencies in cargo clearance.

The dwell time of cargo, which was formerly brought down to 14 days, has risen to a minimum of 21 days, meaning that it takes an importer an average of 21 days to take delivery of cargo to the importers warehouse.

“The Buhari-led administration is yet to take decision on whom to be in charge of the various sectors of the economy by way of appointing ministers and this is why many of the sacked government agencies at the port are trooping back to the port,” Tony Anakebe, a renowned maritime analyst told our correspondent.

Recall that in 2011, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, former minister of finance, trimmed down government agencies operating at the port to seven asking agencies like SON, NAFDAC, National Drug Law Enforcement Agency (NDLEA) and six others to leave the port only to be called upon by customs when their services are needed.

Long before the general election, Ike Ekweremadu, deputy Senate president, had lamented that the politics of 2015 had relegated governance and service delivery to the background.

Ekweremadu made the observation at an international experience-sharing conference on Media and Elections organised by the Nigeria Union of Journalists and international development partners under the auspices of the United Nations Development Programme in Abuja.

He said: “The nation is already caught in the political fireworks of 2015 and governance has taken the backstage because we have turned Nigeria into an election nation in perpetuity.”
Ekweremadu observed that under normal circumstances, what should follow a successful election was service delivery.

He argued that the media and members of the public should hold elected officials accountable on their campaign promises as soon as elections were over.

An analyst, who craved anonymity told BD SUNDAY that the crisis in the ruling APC appears to be contributing hugely in retarding the country’s forward march.

“I’m a die-hard supporter of Buhari, and strongly believe that under his administration Nigeria will really experience change. I want to say that the crisis in the APC is causing a lot of delay in the service delivery. Left for Buhari, he would have since hit the ground running, but he has to bid his time because of the sentiments being expressed by some people in the party. The man is studying the body language of certain elements in the party. If we lose this year and get it right, so be it,” the analyst, who said he was a retired aviation staff, said.

However, some observers have contrary view, saying that the successful transition amounted to huge economic achievement.

Kassim Bataiya, national president of the Nigerian Association of Road Transport Owners (NARTO), believe that the successful conduct of the 2015 general elections is itself an achievement with positive impact on the economy. He said the recent invitation extended to the Nigerian new president by the G-7 countries and the USA to discuss Nigeria’s challenges, are signs that progress is being made in the polity.

He further explained that the smooth and peaceful transition from one government to another, of a different political party must also be seen as a positive development for the economy
Bataiya argued that the relative long period it is taking the governments at both federal and state level to name ministers and commissioners, should be understood from the standpoint of transition from one political party to another as against what obtained the last sixteen years where one party, with same ideology and programmes was succeeding itself.

“Talking about economic gains and all that, we must not forget the fact that for the first time in 16 years, we had an incumbent president losing an election. We also had majority of the members of the National Assembly not being able to return. At the state level, a good number of the governors took over from governors who are not in the same political party with them. So, it is expected that they will take their time to study what they met and what they want to do.

On the whole, the fact that there was a peaceful transition is itself an achievement because new policy direction to drive the economy will be formulated,” said Bataiya who also credited the bailout fund approved by the presidency to aid payment of arrears of salaries of workers in some states as a plus for the economy.

Olusegun Oshinowo, the director-general of the Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association (NECA) pointed to the need for the government especially at the federal level to have structure in place in order to put the economy on a fast track; hence, the need for Nigerians to be a bit patient.

“In the light of certain statements made by the president which we can connect with as business people, I think we have to be patient with this government. This government has realised the importance of structure… both in terms of number and quality in ensuring that it delivers on good governance.

“The government has said we need to reduce the cost of governance; a situation where over 80 percent of our resources go into recurrent expenditure is not healthy for the economy. One way to address this is for us to collapse government structure in terms of restructuring, merging or even scrapping some of the MDAs.

“This is because structure usually follows objective in management. When you have your objective, you must make sure that your structure aligns appropriately with the objective for you to build on your objective. They have recognise that the structure they have on ground will not assist them in the delivery of their objective, it therefore makes sense that they have to get done with that structure and get another structure before they can hit the ground.”

According to him, “In management, you have to get structure in place before you start looking for competent hands that will man the various positions; that perhaps, is why the President is not in a hurry to appoint ministers etc.”

“What is taking too long is not about the appointment of ministers but they need to make up their mind on what the structure should be. We can ask them to put some speed to the restructuring and that should be advocated,” said Oshinowo.

 

ZEBULON AGOMUO, JOSHUA BASSEY, ODINAKA ANUDU AND AMAKA ANAGOR-EWUZIE