While Nigeria’s economy exited its first recession in 25 years, in the second quarter of 2017, analysts say this recovery is still fragile as other sectors including manufacturing are still in recession. How can this recovery be managed to deliver value to over 180 million Nigerians? This question informs the 2018 BusinessDay Economic Outlook.
BusinessDay, West Africa’s most authoritative business daily, is holding its annual Nigeria Economic Outlook, Friday February 16, at the Wheatbaker hotel Ikoyi, Lagos to critically look at how the economy has fared in 2017 and chart a prosperous path for 2018, by bringing together those who manage the economy as well as those feel the effect of their policies to talk about the issues that matter.
This year’s forum with the broad theme, “Navigating from Recovery to Growth”, will have top CEOs, investors, decision makers and government officials; including speakers such as Okechukwu Enelamah, minister of Industry, Trade and Investment; Patience Oniha, director general, Debt Management Office (DMO) and Yemi Kale, Statistician General, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) as special guests.
Other personalities expected at the event includes Austin Avuru, CEO, Seplat Petroleum Development Company; Bismarck Rewane, CEO, Financial Derivatives Company Limited; Bola Koko, CEO, FMDQ OTC securities Exchange and Opeyemi Agbaje, CEO, RTC Advisory services
“Today, business leaders are seeking deep insight, as they make critical decisions on much-needed investments to be made in the economy. In light of this, the Conference serves as a platform for dialogue between the policy makers from the public sector and business leaders within the private sector on the best strategies and opportunities to transition the economy from recovery to growth,” says the organisers.
Along with informed analysts and business leaders, these panel members will shed light on Nigeria’s economic indices, as well as provide insight on the direction of the economy in 2018 from the perspective of the informed. It will also explore prospects for growth amid a projected stabilisation in energy and commodity prices, which may provide a small tailwind for Nigeria this year.
Nigeria’s economy is susceptible to oil prices and output. While it can control output, to the extent that OPEC cuts allow, it has no control over oil prices in the international market. The recent rally has seen prices rise to $70 per barrel and production has jumped to 1.8million barrels per day (bpd), fuelling optimism that the economy may yet turn the corner this year.
The creation of the “Investor and Exporters (I & E) window,” in April 2017, has also boosted dollar supply to the market and paved the way for foreign buying of Nigerian stocks which have since rallied to a three-year high. Some $28 billion worth of transactions have been done on the window, according to FMDQ data.
This is why the World Bank forecasts that Nigeria’s economy will grow by at least 2.5% in 2018 from a 1% growth in 2017 due to improved commodity prices, investments and trade. The upward revision is based on the expectations of stability in Nigeria’s oil production and a surge in non-oil sector growth due to government reforms.
Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to grow further by 2.8% in 2019 and 2020 according to the bank’s January 2018 Global Economic Prospect report. Buoyed by expected positive outcomes in Nigeria, the World Bank expects growth in Sub-Saharan Africa to increase to 3.2% in 2018 and 3.5% in 2019 on account of firming commodity prices and strengthening domestic demand.
In 2017, three guest speakers delivered presentations. Udoma Udo Udoma, minister of Budget and Planning, spoke on the key pillars of the 2017 Federal budget, as well as its key objectives. Babatunde Raji Fashola, minister of Power, Works & Housing, made a presentation o the likely impact of infrastructure spending as a strategic route to economic recovery and the last presentation on the impact of an improved investment climate in attracting the needed private capital for sustained growth was made by keyEyinnaEnelamah Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment.
This year’s conference, as in previous editions, provides a unique platform for the attendees and delegates to debate and exchange ideas on the issues and trends impacting upon Nigeria’s economic growth and development.
